AFF Member Stock Discussion

[cove]

Sorry @ramamba we don’t follow that Siteminder one. Read it all is all we can suggest.
Every other day the largest Fortescue shareholder is spruiking on about something. We have him on our ignore button now.

 

[Buzzard]

Would you say it's a buy now??
I very briefly follow FMG, I know it was ~$24 not so long ago.

I love buying against current sentiment.


Catch the falling knife!

Who really knows, nobody can accurately pick the bottom (or top). I've checked my balls and don't have a crystal one.
I was going to buy at $9 but a friend talked me out of it, they went up to 25ish and now they are where they are.
For a long term hold and considering the yield will probably be around 25%, I'd buy for a long term hold. YMMV as this is not financial advice.

 

[RooFlyer]

For FMG followers, the iron ore spot price (not necessarily what FMG are getting, but the trend will likely be similar).


Looking forward, here's one forecast (out of many):

The Bank of America’s global research team is lowering its price forecast for iron ore fines in 2022 by 45% to $91 per tonne (down from its previous forecast of $165 per tonne) on the back of enforced steel production cuts in China. Beijing’s restrictions on steel output are driven by its goal of driving down emissions.

 

[Buzzard]

You can always dollar cost average.
Let's say you want to buy $20k of FMG, you could buy 4 $5k parcels over a period of time. Whilst not foolproof it is a strategy.

 

[moa999]

Iron ore price down, and it seems like FMG is running out of average quality ore (and paying even more penalties)

 

[cove]

FMGs 69% owned Iron Bridge Magnetite project has been a big drag with the project cost now forecast at about $3.5 B USD and they are hoping it will be running by December next year. It should be ok if the plant works.
They are expecting a 67% purity from this project which will be good if it is achieved.

 

[cove]

Today we sold some of our Eclipse shares which we bought at the wrong price ages ago. Made a modest profit after nursing a quite large loss for a couple of years. We have a pile of ECX in another account which we bought for about a dollar less. We like the current managers so we plan to keep the lower cost ones.

 

[MooTime]

O

Today we sold some of our Eclipse shares which we bought at the wrong price ages ago. Made a modest profit after nursing a quite large loss for a couple of years. We have a pile of ECX in another account which we bought for about a dollar less. We like the current managers so we plan to keep the lower cost ones.

Out of interest, why would you sell some & keep others of the same share ECX.... The reason to sell or keep should be the same.
If you believe in the stock in regards to management or whatever, why sell some?

Rebalancing portfolio?

 

[zenyattamondatta]

O

Out of interest, why would you sell some & keep others of the same share ECX.... The reason to sell or keep should be the same.
If you believe in the stock in regards to management or whatever, why sell some?

Rebalancing portfolio?

lol #nothisfirstrodeoYFG

 

[cove]

Well @MooTime we were caught in Eclipse when they bought a business that they did not understand and proceeded to dump it for almost nothing. We have sold that one third of our total. The ones we have kept cost $1.40 and the ones we sold cost about $2.30. We spend more time dealing with the poor choices than the good picks.
The business they dealt badly was an online auction group.
The new management team have done a great job so far.
We are now up a heap after being down a real chunk. Still have lots of ECX and a pile of cash now to invest.
Ophir have something new coming up for us in an unlisted asset.

 

[MARTINE]

FMGs 69% owned Iron Bridge Magnetite project has been a big drag with the project cost now forecast at about $3.5 B USD and they are hoping it will be running by December next year. It should be ok if the plant works.
They are expecting a 67% purity from this project which will be good if it is achieved.

I bought a lot of FMG in the last few month 13-14 and will see where it takes me - it’s a long stock and div good…..

 

[cove]

Yes @MARTINE we have just 5,000 FMG shares and we are down a few cents on our recent purchase. Hopefully they can pay a dividend this next year.

 

[Buzzard]

O

Out of interest, why would you sell some & keep others of the same share ECX.... The reason to sell or keep should be the same.
If you believe in the stock in regards to management or whatever, why sell some?

Rebalancing portfolio?

Not ECX but I recently sold 50% of a holding when the price doubled.
My remaining holding has now cost me about zero and I have realised funds to put into something else I'm interested in.

 

[MARTINE]

Not ECX but I recently sold 50% of a holding when the price doubled.
My remaining holding has now cost me about zero and I have realised funds to put into something else I'm interested in.

A profit is a profit and you won’t lose money taking it…ultimately we invest for a range of reasons not the least of which is storing cash which otherwise goes backwards if all kept in the bank (happy to buy the bank shares though)... and enjoy it

 

[cove]

Do be aware that inflation is hitting Australia right now and it can mess up interest rates despite what the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve in the US have said so far.
Air freight and sea freight charges were up about 5 times this October compared with the previous year.
With the surge in oil and gas prices those costs are coming into our economy and not just at the petrol pump and the home gas supply.

 

[moa999]

And the AUD going up.
Definitely going to be increasing pressure on the RBA to move.

Which can quickly flow through to all sorts of asset prices.

 

[cove]

Well we are surprised just how high Sydney residential real estate has gone swelled by low interest rates. $1.3 million average for some pretty ordinary places. Many think there will be a setback but no one really knows.
A change to the capital gains tax rate would change investors attitudes but no Government would stay in power if they did this.
We did get some Cromwell on Friday when they dropped at the close.

 

[Dr Ralph]

We did get some Cromwell on Friday when they dropped at the close.

Cromwell has been in a nice pattern for me to make some easy money. Hits $0.805 then a few days later hits $0.825. The a few days later $0.805 again. I've been in and out about 5 times over recent weeks following this same pattern. I realise it wont keep doing this, so when I 'get the timing wrong' I'm happy to hold this stock long term for the excellent dividend.

 

[MARTINE]

Well we are surprised just how high Sydney residential real estate has gone swelled by low interest rates. $1.3 million average for some pretty ordinary places. Many think there will be a setback but no one really knows.
A change to the capital gains tax rate would change investors attitudes but no Government would stay in power if they did this.
We did get some Cromwell on Friday when they dropped at the close.

Agreed - changing CGT is a hard sell.
Its going to be an interesting 12 months driven by the usual fear and greed. Some people are waaaay overcommitted to property - glad I’m not leveraged. These waves do take out the good the bad and the ugly

 

[lakeman]

Thanks @cove for the Cromwell tip .
Like you said , seems a good place to park spare cash