AFF Member Stock Discussion

[burmans]

Buy at $100.

That’s what you said last time! And unfortunately I did take your advice for some of my holdings (fortunately not that much).

 

[Mr_Orange]

I see CBA is down to under $125, losing 6½% over the last 5 days.

It's not alone. US markets have been down, significantly down, for the least three trading days.

Post automatically merged: Aug 5, 2024

Buy at $100.

I'm 99% certain it's not going that low. In fact, I would be surprised if it goes below $120.

 

[I love to travel]

Dow Futures 1.5% down, Nasdaq over 3%, could be a tough week.

 

[tgh]

Ho hum.. corrections come and corrections go…yawn...

 

[andye]

Saw an article saying that the world markets are channelling the Olympics..


With synchronised diving

 

[SydneySwan]

Saw an article saying that the world markets are channelling the Olympics..


With synchronised diving

Pole Vault final tonight - I am tipping the markets to soar above previous highs!

 

[MARTINE]

Pole Vault final tonight - I am tipping the markets to soar above previous highs!

Unless your appendage knocks the bar on the way down

 

[drron]

Unless your appendage knocks the bar on the way down

I couldn't jump high enough to reach the bar.

 

[MARTINE]

What are people’s thoughts about the buying opportunities over next few days if the synchronised diving continues?
How long until pole vault starts.
I am planning on stocking up more BHP/WES/CBA along for the ride

 

[tgh]

There is a long run question in my mind about values , we have had many years of blue sky and may be due for a long run of grey.
As always, the strength of profitability in difficult times will drive value more than starry eyed predictions

 

[SydneySwan]

How long until pole vault starts.
I am planning on stocking up more BHP/WES/CBA along for the ride

The pole vault is over. Unfortunately Mr Market went under the bar and recorded a ‘NM’. Interviewed afterwards he said that there were a lot of positives to take away from this and a lot of work to do but that he will be back in 2028.

 

[burmans]

There is a long run question in my mind about values , we have had many years of blue sky and may be due for a long run of grey.
As always, the strength of profitability in difficult times will drive value more than starry eyed predictions

Look on the positive side, all these issues causing the market to fall will also lead to interest rates falling faster and further than previously expected!

 

[Freq Flier 2013]

So are we saying this was an over reaction and we are back to going up and up?
(With no regard to fundamentals- in my opinion)

 

[Mr_Orange]

So are we saying this was an over reaction and we are back to going up and up?
(With no regard to fundamentals- in my opinion)

Not an over-reaction, just a reaction. markets don't up (or down) in straight lines.

There is definitely more upside to come.

 

[Dr Ralph]

Today I'm on AVH and TAH.

 

[RooFlyer]

Anyone else held Alumina, and now Alcoa Chess Depository Interests (AII)? Timing is important.

I just filled out the US with-holding tax-avoiding W-8BEN-E form .

Now, the takeover scheme was implemented on 1 August. On the 5th I received an e-mail from 'Alcoa Securityholder Communications' via Computershare with advice on this, and, separately, the form to fill out and e-mail back.

They say

Alcoa will be paying its next quarterly dividend with the Record Date of 12 August 2024 and Payment Date of 29 August 2024. This will be the first Alcoa dividend paid to CDI holders after the Scheme has implemented. Please allow sufficient time for your completed U.S. tax certification form to be received by the Record Date for the dividend.

and in the e-mail receipt

Important Note: A processing blackout period will be applied between each dividend record date and payment date. Tax forms received post record date will be pended and actioned after dividend payment has been processed.

So, if you used to hold Alumina, get onto the form ASAP and before the 12th else it sounds like you'll get tax with-held on the next dividend.

 

[tgh]

I had a look and we have the grand total of 90 units , so I do not think I will bother about the retained tax.
What I might do is sell them.

 

[Brissy1]

...I do not think I will bother about the retained tax.

There's a Tax Treaty between AU and US anyway, it's a simple item on your tax return (personal, haven't dealt with it in super).

 

[tgh]

Following up on my cloudy forecast on tuesday, this bit of support for caution has appeared.
My experience is that the in crowd tend.. to have a handle on where markets are going long before the plebs
When journalists start writing about stuff it is usually too late to time the market...

Ex abc news but probably lots of other places..

The period of 'abnormally high' profits is over for Australia's largest companies, according to market analysts

Profits of Australia's top 200 listed companies are expected to shrink for the 2024 financial year, heading for their second consecutive year of earnings contraction.

www.abc.net.au

After reporting "abnormally high" earnings during the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia's 200 largest companies are now expected to announce falling profits for a second straight year.

That's the prediction of global investment bank UBS, which believes "this 'sugar rush' period has now passed".

The bank's investment strategist, Richard Schellbach, is predicting earnings from ASX-listed companies, on average, will have fallen 3.5 per cent in the past financial year (2023-24) — following a 2.9 per cent drop in the previous year.

 

[burmans]

Personally I’d regard this as old news. Companies profits were always going to take a hit from increased borrowing costs, in fact I’d suggest many have done surprisingly well given this but we are now seeing the effect.

Of course if looking ahead you could always take the contrarian view that interest rates have peaked and next move is down (but maybe not for 6 months or so). So short term pain for the market but not necessarily so in the longer term.