AFF Member Stock Discussion

[Quattro]

I haven't backtested this strategy but buying any stock that drops in excess of 30% in a day seems to look successful where that threshold indicates an overreaciton to the news/release.

APT seems a strong one to back that up.

 

[Dave G]

happy with cimic

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

APT seems a strong one to back that up.

Indeed, Lovisa even moreso.

I'm still staying out of the market as tempting as it was with US futures looking positive. Still looks like a carbon copy of where we were a week prior and there were further losses to be had.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Indeed, Lovisa even moreso.

I'm still staying out of the market as tempting as it was with US futures looking positive. Still looks like a carbon copy of where we were a week prior and there were further losses to be had.

Is it just me, or with the coughstorm about to happen in the USA will not the markets there ultimately really crash way below where they are? And then in turn drag our market lower even if we in Australia is relatively ok CV 19 wise?

 

[Mogul]

Yes the coughstorm is just starting in the USA which will be locked down this time next week.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the NYSE closed until further notice as it will be an absolute bloodbath, which will flow into our markets.

The markets could end up loosing another 50% from where they currently are.

 

[cove]

With California and New York both in closure mode we chose to do nothing. Just starting Day 5 of compulsory isolation and going ok.

 

[amaroo]

Yes the coughstorm is just starting in the USA which will be locked down this time next week.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the NYSE closed until further notice as it will be an absolute bloodbath, which will flow into our markets.

The markets could end up loosing another 50% from where they currently are.

I agree, we’ve kept our powder dry.

 

[moa999]

With California and New York both in closure mode we chose to do nothing. Just starting Day 5 of compulsory isolation and going ok.

Most of our recent cases have been from those who flew in from the US.

Good choice to keep the powder dry on Fri.
The positive guidance from Europe led to a slight positive open in the US, before fear took hold again - down 4.3%.

So would think we are up for a red day on Monday

 

[Kane]

What's the view on top to bottom %age change on the ASX and other indices? Or are there still too many uncertainties?

 

[daft009]

anyone a peter thornhill fan?
he recently did a podcast, Podcast - Coronavirus market crash with Peter Thornhill - Aussie Firebug

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Too much uncertainty for now.

For the S&P500 (the primary index please do not talk about the Dow - classic sign of someone who does not know how indices work), I've read that based on 2008 trends, the 2000 level could be tested. 2 more weeks of up and down, then some -5% falls to reach a bottom in the region of 2000-2200. At least vol should settle down with the quadruple witching (stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously ) clearing open interest so people won't have to buy the rally and sell the lows so aggressively.

Most sellside banks don't provide index level estimates as it's largely irrelevant. Index levels are a combination of the constituent member fundamentals where earnings is typically the most important factor.

Plucking numbers out of thin air, I'd say 4300 for ASX200 and 2000 for S&P500.

 

[Buzzard]

I'm certainly no expert but my gut tells me that Monday could be a bad day for the market given the announcements since Friday.
CBA at $55 or QF for $1 are on my shopping list*. If I don't get them at the price I'm willing to pay so be it.

*Not saying that will be the price on Monday, it's just the price I'm waiting for.

 

[amaroo]

I'm certainly no expert but my gut tells me that Monday could be a bad day for the market given the announcements since Friday.
CBA at $55 or QF for $1 are on my shopping list*. If I don't get them at the price I'm willing to pay so be it.

*Not saying that will be the price on Monday, it's just the price I'm waiting for.

Things well definitely get worse - keep that powder dry.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

I'm certainly no expert but my gut tells me that Monday could be a bad day for the market given the announcements since Friday.

It's not going to be pretty. I'd say another day down more than 5%.

It's hard to know how the QF share price will fare. A lot of bad news is already priced in now. The share price is a reflection of all future cash flows not just the next couple of months. I doubt we'll see it test the $1 mark but you never know.

 

[Kane]

Have booked in the QAN fall.

Given the State and Territory (TAS/NT) border limits, there must be further domestic reductions in play.

 

[cove]

I will wait for the big lock ups which are close to inevitable.

 

[tgh]

Close the markets….suspend trading for 60 days….
The au economy is now a war ravaged wasteland where all conventional value processes are moot.
Any share could be worth anything in 6 months.. we need some regulation to force stability..
Close the markets...

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Close the markets….suspend trading for 60 days….
The au economy is now a war ravaged wasteland where all conventional value processes are moot.
Any share could be worth anything in 6 months.. we need some regulation to force stability..
Close the markets...

What do you propose to do for liquidity? For example, super funds have seen large redemptions which would involve the sale of listed assets. Who do they sell to and at what price?

 

[tgh]

Who do they sell to and at what price

Distressed liquidation (only) by government loan with the share as collateral at the last 10 days average price.
To start back trading only allow low volumes while the government balances the market values against the whole economy by direct intervention until it stabilises (at whatever level)

…anyway.. not gonna happen….

 

[moa999]

Anyone have cajones today?

Bought GEAR and TCL Transurban at 10.10am and sold out at 2.30 and 3.30 for a nice return for the day.
Missed the late peak but a good day.

Also chucked a few $s as a long-term hold in MOE Moelis which is a mini-Macquarie but heavy on the property/pub side and is down 75% from highs.