AFF Member Stock Discussion

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

I was reading an interesting opinion piece using the stages of grief to explain where we are at in the cycle. They believe we are in panic phase with two phases to go until resignation and sustained recovery. Seemed to make some sense so I'm staying out of the market with some volatility predicted for next few days.

 

[drron]

Well we are in a bear market now and it won't be over until the fat lady sings.
The problem is that she is now in self isolation so no one will hear her voice.

 

[Dr Ralph]

MQG good buying at under $100. I'm on. Hopefully I may be able to 'day' trade this as well

 

[TheRealTMA]

I wonder how much of the roller coaster is due to computerised trading battling each others' algorithms or day traders trying to enrich trading agencies or lose all their money?

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

I picked up some MQG but still a few regrets as not sure how far it has to drop. Long-term there has to be value in it.

The buy now pay laters are getting smashed. APT just dipped below $13

 

[cove]

Where is that singing fat lady.......

 

[Long_20]

I picked up some MQG but still a few regrets as not sure how far it has to drop. Long-term there has to be value in it.

The buy now pay laters are getting smashed. APT just dipped below $13

Once things start opening up again, APT and Webjet will be great buys I think. Not getting in those ones yet. If shopping centres close, there's more downside to APT

 

[coriander]

MQG good buying at under $100.

Picked some up at 90 this afternoon.

 

[Dr Ralph]

I picked up some MQG but still a few regrets as not sure how far it has to drop. Long-term there has to be value in it.

Have a look at the price history of this share. Unless it goes belly up you will money. It's just a question of how long that may take

 

[Quattro]

I picked up some MQG but still a few regrets as not sure how far it has to drop. Long-term there has to be value in it.

The buy now pay laters are getting smashed. APT just dipped below $13

Same boat as you regarding Macquarie. Will probably collect more. Saw it drip to $89 today. Should of collected more then tbh.

APT; hadn't thought of, thanks.

 

[Dr Ralph]

Picked some up at 90 this afternoon.

I paid $94. If it's still around $90 tomorrow I'll get some more.

 

[Quattro]

Once things start opening up again, APT and Webjet will be great buys I think. Not getting in those ones yet. If shopping centres close, there's more downside to APT

Not necessarily. Afterpay is heavily marketed at online shopping. Can't walk into those shops at 3am when splurging on an impulse buy lol.

 

[Long_20]

Not necessarily. Afterpay is heavily marketed at online shopping. Can't walk into those shops at 3am when splurging on an impulse buy lol.

Yeah, sure. But if Morrison announces that shopping centres have to close for 14 or 30 days, APT will take a hit for sure on that day.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Some idea generation for those who believe in technical or momentum indicators, some of the most oversold on the All Ords include:

Travel & leisure: Helloworld, Flight Centre, Alliance Aviation, Crown, Qantas, Star
Property: Unibail Rodamco, Scentre, Charter Hall, Vicinity, Centuria, Stockland
Infra: Sydney Airport, Auckland Airport

A surprising addition to the list is Amcor looking very oversold. There has been a lot of call option activity indicating positive outlook and insiders are buying at these levels which again looks positive.

 

[Dr Ralph]

Some idea generation for those who believe in technical or momentum indicators, some of the most oversold on the All Ords include:

Travel & leisure: Helloworld, Flight Centre, Alliance Aviation, Crown, Qantas, Star
Property: Unibail Rodamco, Scentre, Charter Hall, Vicinity, Centuria, Stockland
Infra: Sydney Airport, Auckland Airport

A surprising addition to the list is Amcor looking very oversold. There has been a lot of call option activity indicating positive outlook and insiders are buying at these levels which again looks positive.

Interesting list.

From that list these are the only ones I would consider purchasing, but they'd still have to fall further for me to buy:

Sydney Airport
Qantas
Star
Crown

 

[Mogul]

I believe MQG will end up around $60 or even a bit lower, While it is tempting at the moment my wallet is staying firmly shut.

 

[Quattro]

I believe MQG will end up around $60 or even a bit lower, While it is tempting at the moment my wallet is staying firmly shut.

I said at $80 in my head I'll buy more. Let's see

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Interesting list.

From that list these are the only ones I would consider purchasing, but they'd still have to fall further for me to buy:

Sydney Airport
Qantas
Star
Crown

I'd still avoid Sydney Airport. It's looking expensive still on a relative basis on Forward PE and Forward EV/EBITDA.

Conversely Star and Crown are at rock bottom levels relative to their 2 and 5 yr averages. With every second gaming machine closed off and limited table games and restriction on arrivals for high-rollers its tough to see where the turnaround is coming from at the Casinos.

If you want gaming exposure, TAH, JIN and PBH have also been heavily oversold and driven more by domestic online business. Just need to keep in mind the impact of sporting league postponements may have on them.

 

[get me outta here]

Bought at float, and CPU - ended up with many 1000s of them.

Bought at float. Pity we all didn’t! Same with CSL and CBA!

 

[moa999]

APT I think still has issues. Covid is going to be with us a while and first to go are the young - casual employees in retail/ bars etc. Worse if we go full shutdown.

So that's a lot less new business for APT (and competition Z1P) and more bad debts.

MQG is mostly a fund manager these days - so also look at MGF