AFF Member Stock Discussion

Interesting times, some folks may be planning a war .
The potus probably means well for his country.
The shock tactic arguably seeks high pain over a shorter period allowing for the electoral cycle.
A progressive process could (also arguably) achieve the same goal with minimal pain but over a multi election timeframe.
I wonder what an immediate 25% drop in au exports will do for the planned goldilocks spending spree planned by one political party?
 
tgh said:
I wonder what an immediate 25% drop in au exports will do for the planned goldilocks spending spree planned by one political party?
Click to expand...
The US only accounts for about 6% of AU exports. Well after China and Japan. And the big ticket items don’t have tariffs (services and IP). First commodity is Beef - which they’ll continue to buy. So hamburgers are going to get more expensive in the US…that’s going to affect everyone.
www.abc.net.au

Amid tariff panic, let's remember what Australia exports and who actually buys it

Australia is an exporting powerhouse, but the majority of the goods we sell overseas go to Asia.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au

The real worry is if the Chinese economy tanks even more….
 
I see the tariff impost as being quite fluid, Donald's opening gambit. I expect as nations approach the US with offers to reduce their own tariffs on imported US goods (Japan has a 700% tariff on US rice for instance), then Donald will strike agreements to reduce the tariffs he has levied on that nation.

Is it too soon to jump into WDS which is now under $21 and could bump $20 today? I expect many investors will not want to be holding stock over the weekend. WHC too looks like it could slump to $4, or less.

Edit: We posted in stereo @I love to travel . It is true WDS is affected by the oil price of the day, particularly WTI and Henry hub, but mostly the gas price. However it is one of those oil stocks that responds to the market generally.
The market is likely to bump around for some weeks yet so no rush to buy...but it s tempting.
 
Last edited:
When looked at the cost to Australia from the Trump tariffs it is really not huge. A part of our exports to the US in value are minerals including gold which will not be subject to the tariffs.. The Guardian is way out suggesting they could have a 27 billion dollar cost to Australia.
The biggest hit is to beef where we export~ $5 billion.

52% of beef imported into the US comes from Canada and Mexico and it seems beef is excluded from tariffs for those countries. The other 3 places making the top 5 in beef are Australia, Brazil and Argentina and all 3 have the 10% tariff. US domestic beef production has fallen over the last 12 months due to poor margins. So the tariff might have some benefit for some US producers.
On the other hand the US is the largest exporter of beef to Japan. So I don't see absolutely drastic problems.

Another thing that is no surprise to me is how little research Australian journalists do. News and others saying we ban US beef for foot and mouth disease. However the last US outbreak of F&M was in 1923. They then mention BSE and yes the US has had cases. 7 between 2009 and 2023.

And on the other side of the ledger economists are flagging a possible 4 interest rate cuts this year with the chance increased by the Trump tariffs.
 
Last edited:
cove said:
Yes @SYD the one in May is Qantas business and we want to get into First. The second one is on SQ and we are already in First.That one is for a cruise up the Mississippi.
I thought about Penfolds wines getting hit with a 10 % tariff but they are already over priced.
It will be tough for the Australian producers at the bottom of the pricing market.
Made in Australia products should get a reasonable favourable kick.
Click to expand...
Off topic but interested in which cruise you’re doing at the Mississippi as it is on my bucket list.

Maybe put in here 2026 travel plans.
 
Cyclone Donald still over Wall Street - another 5-6% decline overnight. China not helping by having the temerity to implement 'countermeasures' of 34% tariff on US goods and restricting rare earths (to everyone not just US).

Unless sanity is restored over the weekend I feel confident to forecast a down day for the ASX on Monday.
 
We are doing a Viking Mississippi River run later this year during Fall so the colours should be amazing. We start not in New Orleans but further up around St Louis as we have been to New Orleans multiple times.
Another thing we did was a Hertz 30 day 12,200 mile drive from Los Angeles across America as the divided roads prevent head on collisions. Doing 400 miles in a morning allowed us to have afternoons and evenings free to look around.
Now it should be interesting in May in Marina del Rey which is close to LAX.There may be shortages as importers cut back on highly tariffed goods.
Last night must have been a wake up call for many who are close to retirement.We expect to finish in August.
I am looking at Reece, Atlas Arteria and some others but can be patient.
 
Last edited:
SydneySwan said:
Cyclone Donald still over Wall Street - another 5-6% decline overnight. China not helping by having the temerity to implement 'countermeasures' of 34% tariff on US goods and restricting rare earths (to everyone not just US).

Unless sanity is restored over the weekend I feel confident to forecast a down day for the ASX on Monday.
Click to expand...
Expect market volatility for some time yet. Dow down 2,000, Nasdaq down 960'ish. Brent crude lowest in some yrs. Good buying ops on Monday.
Will WDS touch $18's, maybe.
So far tariffs good for Aus with 4 rate falls being widely predicted. Great if you are a RE investor. Less than 4% of our trade is with US. However our major trade partners, Korea, China and Japan may all see weekening exports to US b/c of their, higher, tariffs. Expect to see lower coal and iron prices in response as manufacturing winds down.
 
Last edited:

Become an AFF member!

Join Australian Frequent Flyer (AFF) for free and unlock insider tips, exclusive deals, and global meetups with 65,000+ frequent flyers.

AFF members can also access our Frequent Flyer Training courses, and upgrade to Fast-track your way to expert traveller status and unlock even more exclusive discounts!

AFF forum abbreviations

Wondering about Y, J or any of the other abbreviations used on our forum?

Check out our guide to common AFF acronyms & abbreviations.

Recent Posts

Currently Active Users

... and 18 more.
Total: 2,149 (members: 68, guests: 2,081)
Back
Top