AFF Member Stock Discussion

[cove]

Americans are about to get hit on the cost of a cup of coffee so lots will be unhappy with Donald.

 

[tgh]

Interesting times, some folks may be planning a war .
The potus probably means well for his country.
The shock tactic arguably seeks high pain over a shorter period allowing for the electoral cycle.
A progressive process could (also arguably) achieve the same goal with minimal pain but over a multi election timeframe.
I wonder what an immediate 25% drop in au exports will do for the planned goldilocks spending spree planned by one political party?

 

[SYD]

I wonder what an immediate 25% drop in au exports will do for the planned goldilocks spending spree planned by one political party?

The US only accounts for about 6% of AU exports. Well after China and Japan. And the big ticket items don’t have tariffs (services and IP). First commodity is Beef - which they’ll continue to buy. So hamburgers are going to get more expensive in the US…that’s going to affect everyone.

Amid tariff panic, let's remember what Australia exports and who actually buys it

Australia is an exporting powerhouse, but the majority of the goods we sell overseas go to Asia.

www.abc.net.au

The real worry is if the Chinese economy tanks even more….

 

[I love to travel]

Woodside down over 6% today. ANZ continues to be worst performing bank

 

[prozac]

I see the tariff impost as being quite fluid, Donald's opening gambit. I expect as nations approach the US with offers to reduce their own tariffs on imported US goods (Japan has a 700% tariff on US rice for instance), then Donald will strike agreements to reduce the tariffs he has levied on that nation.

Is it too soon to jump into WDS which is now under $21 and could bump $20 today? I expect many investors will not want to be holding stock over the weekend. WHC too looks like it could slump to $4, or less.

Edit: We posted in stereo @I love to travel . It is true WDS is affected by the oil price of the day, particularly WTI and Henry hub, but mostly the gas price. However it is one of those oil stocks that responds to the market generally.
The market is likely to bump around for some weeks yet so no rush to buy...but it s tempting.

 

[SYD]

Woodside down over 6% today. ANZ continues to be worst performing bank

It was down ~7% earlier (as was Santos). Probably because Oil was down about the same o/n.

 

[burmans]

Personally I think we still have some way to drop. We will get China's impact,not US stock market woes

Totally agree, I’m watching but think we have a way to go. In America at least many stocks are still far from cheap.

 

[stm1sydney]

What a great buying opportunity.

 

[MARTINE]

I plan to review coming weeks - just as you cannot pick the top its the same for the bottom - if continues down will consider replenishing BHP/WDS/CBA.
Happily took good profits Dec-Feb in dribs and drabs and will jump back over next few weeks

 

[drron]

When looked at the cost to Australia from the Trump tariffs it is really not huge. A part of our exports to the US in value are minerals including gold which will not be subject to the tariffs.. The Guardian is way out suggesting they could have a 27 billion dollar cost to Australia.
The biggest hit is to beef where we export~ $5 billion.

52% of beef imported into the US comes from Canada and Mexico and it seems beef is excluded from tariffs for those countries. The other 3 places making the top 5 in beef are Australia, Brazil and Argentina and all 3 have the 10% tariff. US domestic beef production has fallen over the last 12 months due to poor margins. So the tariff might have some benefit for some US producers.
On the other hand the US is the largest exporter of beef to Japan. So I don't see absolutely drastic problems.

Another thing that is no surprise to me is how little research Australian journalists do. News and others saying we ban US beef for foot and mouth disease. However the last US outbreak of F&M was in 1923. They then mention BSE and yes the US has had cases. 7 between 2009 and 2023.

And on the other side of the ledger economists are flagging a possible 4 interest rate cuts this year with the chance increased by the Trump tariffs.

 

[Radio8tiv]

Keeping an eye on MQG now after their 9% drop today

 

[I love to travel]

Keeping an eye on MQG now after their 9% drop today

Any insight into the reason for the drop?

 

[VPS]

Yes @SYD the one in May is Qantas business and we want to get into First. The second one is on SQ and we are already in First.That one is for a cruise up the Mississippi.
I thought about Penfolds wines getting hit with a 10 % tariff but they are already over priced.
It will be tough for the Australian producers at the bottom of the pricing market.
Made in Australia products should get a reasonable favourable kick.

Off topic but interested in which cruise you’re doing at the Mississippi as it is on my bucket list.

Maybe put in here 2026 travel plans.

 

[SydneySwan]

Cyclone Donald still over Wall Street - another 5-6% decline overnight. China not helping by having the temerity to implement 'countermeasures' of 34% tariff on US goods and restricting rare earths (to everyone not just US).

Unless sanity is restored over the weekend I feel confident to forecast a down day for the ASX on Monday.

 

[cove]

We are doing a Viking Mississippi River run later this year during Fall so the colours should be amazing. We start not in New Orleans but further up around St Louis as we have been to New Orleans multiple times.
Another thing we did was a Hertz 30 day 12,200 mile drive from Los Angeles across America as the divided roads prevent head on collisions. Doing 400 miles in a morning allowed us to have afternoons and evenings free to look around.
Now it should be interesting in May in Marina del Rey which is close to LAX.There may be shortages as importers cut back on highly tariffed goods.
Last night must have been a wake up call for many who are close to retirement.We expect to finish in August.
I am looking at Reece, Atlas Arteria and some others but can be patient.