AFF's 1,000,000th post thread....

[woodborer]

Still think it will the Princess given current rate of postings

Having a look see from the statistician, I am still sticking with the RooFlyer.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Having a look see from the statistician, I am still sticking with the RooFlyer.

I think you are correct

 

[drross]

Stats, stats and more damned lies.

 

[Mwenenzi]

952,690 posts when JohnK announced the contest on 02 April 2014
999,652 posts a few minutes ago. 589 posts per day from the contest announcement
For the approximate last 24 hours post rate has been 802 posts per day.
For the last 7 days the average post rate has been 598 posts per day
The 7 day average post rate has had a noticeable rise in last week

Since the contest was announced
- the daily post rate has varied from a high of 803 per day to a low of 302 per day
- the 7 day rolling average post rate has varied from a high of 703 per day to a low of 472 per day

On Mon 12 May the calculated time/date was 21:19 22/06/14
On Fri 23 May the calculated time/date was 14:26 22/06/14
On Fri 30 May the calculated time/date was 10:13 22/06/14
On Fri 06 June the calculated time/date was 18:11 21/06/14
On Fri 13 June the calculated time/date was 06:52 22/06/14
On Thu 12 June the calculated time/date was 03:29 22/06/14
On Fri 20 June the calculated time/date was 16:36 22/06/14
On Sat 21 June the calculated time/date was 07:52 22/06/14

Posting normally slows at weekends & public holidays.
Saturday & Sunday are often 100~ 200 less posts per day (but no slow down today)
Post count as the bottom of http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/forum.php

Prediction -------- If the prediction is to be correct, (based from contest start to the recent post)
00:34 29/05/14 ** [-]-15 posts per day needed by coolumbla[/-]
08:30 09/06/14 ** [-]-28 posts per day needed by Steady[/-]
12:00 10/06/14 ** [-]-31 posts per day needed by Samh004[/-]
16:50 12/06/14 ** [-]-39 posts per day needed by drross[/-]
12:00 13/06/14 ** [-]-42 posts per day needed by basso[/-]
12:00 15/06/14 ** [-]-56 posts per day needed by jb83[/-]
18:00 16/06/14 ** [-]-70 posts per day needed by boomy[/-]
18:30 17/06/14 ** [-]-88 posts per day needed by whatmeworry[/-]
07:53 18/06/14 ** [-]-102 posts per day needed by swanning_it[/-]
12:00 19/06/14 ** [-]-156 posts per day needed by straitman[/-]
11:00 20/06/14 ** [-]-272 posts per day needed by JessicaTam[/-]
23:55 20/06/14 ** [-]-470 posts per day needed by Mwenenzi[/-]
08:15 21/06/14 ** [-]-885 posts per day needed by Orca[/-]
12:00 21/06/14 ** [-]-1469 posts per day needed by Welsh-Kiwi[/-]
21:00 21/06/14 ** 2521 posts per day needed by oz_mark
07:00 22/06/14 ** 627 posts per day needed by oz_mark/Princess Fiona half way
07:52 22/06/14 ** 589 posts per day needed by based on last post (by calculation)
17:00 22/06/14 ** 358 posts per day needed by Princess Fiona
19:00 22/06/14 ** 330 posts per day needed by Rooflyer/Princess Fiona half way
21:00 22/06/14 ** 306 posts per day needed by Rooflyer
19:00 23/06/14 ** 169 posts per day needed by Buzzard
09:30 24/06/14 ** 131 posts per day needed by major
19:00 24/06/14 ** 114 posts per day needed by kpc
21:30 24/06/14 ** 110 posts per day needed by Nizar
07:31 25/06/14 ** 97 posts per day needed by JohnK
13:40 25/06/14 ** 91 posts per day needed by hj.au
11:45 26/06/14 ** 73 posts per day needed by gwilli1
13:00 26/06/14 ** 72 posts per day needed by Amaroo
15:00 27/06/14 ** 59 posts per day needed by rainbowgirl
11:00 28/06/14 ** 52 posts per day needed by serfty
06:15 29/06/14 ** 46 posts per day needed by Clivem
13:30 30/06/14 ** 39 posts per day needed by Petercr
13:00 01/07/14 ** 35 posts per day needed by robw0910
12:00 14/07/14 ** 15 posts per day needed by Jacques Vert

 

[woodborer]

Stats, stats and more damned lies.

Well, I would have bet on RooFlyer this morning, but the latest stats are point toward a Princess Fiona win....Good thing I am not a betting man....

 

[Princess Fiona]

Well, I would have bet on RooFlyer this morning, but the latest stats are point toward a Princess Fiona win....Good thing I am not a betting man....

I think it's going to come down to the wire

EDITED:

I'm also trying to get to 5000 ASAP

 

[JohnK]

I think it's going to come down to the wire

Looks to be real close.

I'm also trying to get to 5000 ASAP

What's the rush?

 

[drross]

Looks to be real close.


What's the rush?

5000 posts and the 1000000th at the same time? Interesting twist in the race. Go Princess

 

[basso]

5000 posts and the 1000000th at the same time? Interesting twist in the race. Go Princess

That is an interesting thought. Given that current stats, I am guessing sometime late morning/early afternoon for pst #1,000,000. I guess we'll see the princess online then!

 

[JohnK]

5000 posts and the 1000000th at the same time? Interesting twist in the race. Go Princess

Not likely to happen but JessicaTam is also getting close to 5,000 posts.

Only 110 posts to go. I think early-mid morning would be the 1,000,000th post. Still too close to call.

 

[RooFlyer]

Neck and neck between oz_mark and PF, with 7am the target for either way. 87 to go as of 5:45 AET, odds are favouring PF ....

 

[SydneySwan]

Is this the millionth?

 

[RooFlyer]

Is this the millionth?

You mean your post? I believe posts in 'Playground' aren't counted in the AFF total, so cannot be. I stand to be corrected.

 

[Limewood]

No I think its this one

 

[Mwenenzi]

Data point
Threads 51,889
Posts 999,957
Members 37,586

All posts count for the total. Playground post do not count for your personal count.

 

[RooFlyer]

Data point
Threads 51,889
Posts 999,957
Members 37,586

All posts count for the total. Playground post do not count for your personal count.

Ah, thanks. I'd post a reply here but don't want to speed posting up too much ...,


D'oh!

 

[drross]

Ah, thanks. I'd post a reply here but don't want to speed posting up too much ...,


D'oh!

Nice one. Go the princess

 

[knightman7]

I can't believe I just read this thread lol

 

[Mwenenzi]

This should be post 1,000,000 (unless someone jumped ahead of me)

Edit: data point
Threads 51,890
Posts 1,000,001
Members37,586

 

[RooFlyer]

This sholuld be post 1,000,000 (unless

... unless .... incomplete posts don't count?