AFR's Joe Aston goes BAM!

[tdimdad]

Now when the QAN share price is diving (26% down from its latest peak in March this year), it's good to take a longer-term look at the share price development during AJ's tenure as the CEO. For interest, I plotted some of their peers for comparison: IAG, AA, CX, SQ and JL. QF is the light blue line in the middle there.

Attached are three charts:
1) 15 years (AJ's tenure) without JL. JL skews chart because of their post-pandemic share price so I have removed it from this chart.
2) 15 years with all six airline companies.
3) Post-pandemic development (from 2/2020) with all six.

Looks like post-pandemic QAN has been well in the comparison group, up until the recent controversies. AA's development in the long run has been interesting but post-pandemic only is less flattering. JL's development long term is peculiar and there must be factors like gov't rescue packages (from bankruptcy), or similar, in play.

Last time the stock was permanently below $5 levels was in 2017 and earlier. There also has been a period of dividends in 2017-2020 (and also in 2009) but they've been off for most of these 15 years.
--> Despite how glowing AJ wanted to be about his virtues as the CEO, as an investment your success is really subject to your entry time. I'd bet there are plenty of shareholders from the last six who are on red and cursing AJ's legacy.

 

[jrfsp]

Now when the QAN share price is diving (26% down from its latest peak in March this year), it's good to take a longer-term look at the share price development during AJ's tenure as the CEO. For interest, I plotted some of their peers for comparison: IAG, AA, CX, SQ and JL. QF is the light blue line in the middle there.

Attached are three charts:
1) 15 years (AJ's tenure) without JL. JL skews chart because of their post-pandemic share price so I have removed it from this chart.
2) 15 years with all six airline companies.
3) Post-pandemic development (from 2/2020) with all six.

Looks like post-pandemic QAN has been well in the comparison group, up until the recent controversies. AA's development in the long run has been interesting but post-pandemic only is less flattering. JL's development long term is peculiar and there must be factors like gov't rescue packages (from bankruptcy), or similar, in play.

Last time the stock was permanently below $5 levels was in 2017 and earlier. There also has been a period of dividends in 2017-2020 (and also in 2009) but they've been off for most of these 15 years.
--> Despite how glowing AJ wanted to be about his virtues as the CEO, as an investment your success is really subject to your entry time. I'd bet there are plenty of shareholders from the last six who are on red and cursing AJ's legacy.

Very few investors would be investing in worldwide airline stocks, how does QAN perform compared to the ASX is much more relevant.

 

[Kangol]

I think there are some golden rules that apply to all businesses regardless of what they do. One of those might just be - don't sell a product that you have no intentions of supplying.

Like the Brooklyn Bridge?

 

[offshore171]

Now when the QAN share price is diving (26% down from its latest peak in March this year), it's good to take a longer-term look at the share price development during AJ's tenure as the CEO. For interest, I plotted some of their peers for comparison: IAG, AA, CX, SQ and JL. QF is the light blue line in the middle there.

The flaw here is that investors have other choices in which to invest other than airline stocks.

How has QAN performed against the indexes?

 

[Quickstatus]

Attached are three charts:

The charts do not include the "capital" returns from share buybacks

 

[MARTINE]

I think there are some golden rules that apply to all businesses regardless of what they do. One of those might just be - don't sell a product that you have no intentions of supplying.

Unless you do a runner…

 

[drron]

If you follow charts the first 2 QF charts show a classic double top. So people should have been out well before Covid struck.

 

[dajop]

Can also see comparison over last 3 years to other ASX listed airlines (Air NZ, Rex, Alliance) as well as the All Ordinaries ... as always there are lies, damned lies and statistics. It all depends on what timeframe you're looking at.

 

[BD1959]

I think there are some golden rules that apply to all businesses regardless of what they do. One of those might just be - don't sell a product that you have no intentions of supplying.

As in most things QF the reality is actually a little more convoluted than that.

There was a practice decades ago with mail order schemes whereby monies would be accepted, banked, interest earned and then subsequently refunded once people had complained for months on non-delivery.

With Qantas, price differentials comes into play. Individuals were - in some cirrcumstances - buying tickets on peak services which were earmarked for cancellation, the passengers then offered alternatives on flights which were retailing at a lower price than the peak service. Had the cancelled service been made public at the time of booking the customer would then have had the choice of purchasing the alternative lower fare with Qantas or a different carrier if they had to go at the time for which they purchased. Qantas will doubtless say "passengers with cancelled flights were accommodated on alternative services" without addressing the cost benefit element of this situation.

Regards,

BD

 

[kookaburra75]

<snip...> Qantas will doubtless say "passengers with cancelled flights were accommodated on alternative services" without addressing the cost benefit element of this situation.

I'm sure the economists have a term for that, like "sunk cost fallacy" etc. If they don't there is a PhD in coming up with a new one.

 

[RooFlyer]

Given the testimony of Goyder et al at the Senate inquiry today, I think we look forward to Mr Aston teeing off again fairly soon. 🍽

 

[Sprucegoose]

Anyway, it won’t really matter what we at AFF think should happen.

Big change is always preceded by many 'inconsequential' discussions amongst the masses. Dont underestimate your voice!

 

[CaptJCool]

Qantas lawyer Andrew Finch makes his mark

Only three weeks ago, Richard Goyder promised humility. Finch didn’t get his chairman’s memo.

www.afr.com

from Joe's experience
"To use a flight credit, Qantas also forces customers into a custom booking engine, where they are often offered higher fares than in the regular booking engine.

I experienced this personally this week. A reasonable argument could be made – and hopefully the ACCC will ultimately make it – that this is another example of Qantas engaging in deceptive conduct."

 

[Lynda2475]

Except you have the option to request the travel pass instead of traditional flight credit which has no such limitations.

The travel pass puts the credit amount on what is effectively a pre-paid credit card that you can use to pay any amount over multiple purchases. This option offered to all during 2020-21 and there were even incentives to convert flight credits to travel pass such as DSC or double points.

It is clear too many customers fail to read emails.

 

[CaptJCool]

Except you have the option to request the travel pass instead of traditional flight credit which has no such limitations.

I don't recall being sent an email that made me think I could do that
and besides we all know the volume of call delays, so I'm not sure I was willing to sit in a phone queue for 3 hours waiting to be told nyet

Important information
If Qantas has cancelled your flight, for other options including a refund, contact us.

 

[Lynda2475]

The wait time was about 5 minutes when I called (and I was not WP then) and the TravelPass was used on 3 separate bookings ensuring extra SCs. It was also discussed heavily on AFF at the time.

Qantas TravelPass | Qantas

Find out about your Qantas TRAVELPASS and how to use it.

www.qantas.com

Whilst there are a lot of legit issues to be resolved at Qantas, a lot of the whining one reads in media is from those who have not bothered to understand what is being offered.

Several times in the last week ill informed customers and then ill informed politicians who have pounced on negative press have reported incorrectly that cost of QFF points seats to EU have gone up 10-fold. Clearly a case of not understanding the difference between a class reward and an anytime reward (which existed pre-covid).

TravelPass was a great improvement during Covid interruptions; I encouraged everyone I knew to request one.

 

[CaptJCool]

I see what you mean now

incentives or not

I note the first time QF shifted credits to TravelPasses and the below from the page you referred was at their instigation.

From July 2021, Qantas will be transferring certain Flight Credits to a Qantas Pass. Frequent Flyer members and Qantas Business Rewards customers can view which Flight Credits have been transferred to a Qantas Pass by logging into their account

there was the further challenge of lockdowns and the like that meant many didn't bother to "book" via the incentives or otherwise as the border lockdowns were happening thick and fast and so on so forth. Many customers simply became disinterested in getting caught up in another state due to this. I know there was refusal to allow people to return to SA on occasions

i'll go look up the earlier conversations as I don't recall any of them

 

[Pushka]

I called today on the Premum line and waited 35 minutes for pick up, all the time being told how valued I was. And my issue wasn't solved. I avoid calling Qantas at all costs.

 

[encryptededdy]

Yeah, call wait times have gotten worse again recently, not sure what's up. I suspect they're pulling staff off the premium line to staff the dedicated travel credit line and social media messaging.

 

[RooFlyer]

Today’s article by Mr Aston has a look at the performance of Qantas' chief lawyer, Mr Finch before the Senate enquiry.