I don't know if its wishful thinking or a gut feeling but I think Japan maybe in their thinking . A few reasons for this ...
1. It is a missing link in their current in there worldwide virtual network ( if you exclude going via SIN)
2. It is ripe for the picking being monopoly OW carriers in QF/JQ & JAL ex Aust .
3. A partnership with ANA is the obvious choice . ANA currently doesn't have any of their own or codeshare services into Australia . There would be mutual codeshare opportunities for both VA & ANA in the both Australia for ANA & Japan for VA. This may extend to opportunities with codeshares to China , LHR & Europe destinations serviced by ANA. ( Although EY & SQ might have a negative view on this ) ANA already has codeshare agreements with NZ, SQ & EY
4. If a partnership with ANA , then i see VA flying into HND instead of NRT as point of difference to the OW carriers as being a better option .
a) HND is ANA hub , as well as NRT
b) closer to Tokyo than NRT , which could be more attractive to both business & leisure travellers.
c) HND international terminal expansion is due for completion around March 2014.
d) on a lesser note but worth a mention is the 2018 Summer Olympics will be held in Tokyo , which will mean further investment by the Japanese government in both HND & NRT in the lead up to the Games .
5. ANA is member of *A ,which may be favourable in the future . SQ & NZ are *A members.
6. Japan is A332 capable from all cities in Australia , but I would favour VA looking at a service from the East Coast to Japan (HND). (Sorry ADL & PER friends ... it just comes down to economies of scale) .
7. Only 1 aircraft would be required on a daily rotation.
7. HKG could be stitched up with a codeshare with CX , as they already have the frequency , plus this would really P..S off QF. SIN is already covered with SG .
What does everyone else think ? Im sure there are some flaws in my thinking that id be more than happy to have pointed out to me.