Article: Reward Seat Release Patterns Have Changed Fundamentally

[tdimdad]

I don't understand how is it possible that this many people (including hutch here) miss my point... Which is - Qantas have changed the game/moved the goal posts, drastically in their favour.

I know they want to sell the seats for cash (duh!) - I am saying they are not playing fair.

Yes, they have moved the goalposts. And so they should!

They are in the business of maximising revenue. In that, they seek the optimum mix of income. If they can fill the planes (max out the yield) with cash fares, naturally they'd do that. It has recently meant that they reserve all seats on popular routes / times to cash only (with a sprinkling of upgrade rewards).

When airlines sell seats, they sell perishable goods. There's zero opportunity for revenue after the gate has closed. This has led me to treat the reward flights similar to half-price last-day products at the supermarket: don't expect to get any but if there's a pack of what you intended to buy anyway (give or take some flexibility you are OK with), of course you'd consider that as an option. But I don't go in expecting to feed myself with half-price items. As many have mentioned, a high degree of flexibility is the key these days if you want to obtain reward flights. I rarely have or want to exercise that luxury in my travels which means more $$$$ to the airlines.

But back to your question: what would you consider 'fair' in this context? Fair to whom?

 

[TurboNator]

Unfortunately, I'm yet to fully master the ability to understand what people are trying to articulate, outside of the words they have provided in writing.

OK, I thought it was obvious after a couple of posts. Either way - now I've said it clearly.

 

[TurboNator]

Yes, they have moved the goalposts. And so they should!

They are in the business of maximising revenue. In that, they seek the optimum mix of income. If they can fill the planes (max out the yield) with cash fares, naturally they'd do that. It has recently meant that they reserve all seats on popular routes / times to cash only (with a sprinkling of upgrade rewards).

When airlines sell seats, they sell perishable goods. There's zero opportunity for revenue after the gate has closed. This has led me to treat the reward flights similar to half-price last-day products at the supermarket: don't expect to get any but if there's a pack of what you intended to buy anyway (give or take some flexibility you are OK with), of course you'd consider that as an option. But I don't go in expecting to feed myself with half-price items. As many have mentioned, a high degree of flexibility is the key these days if you want to obtain reward flights. I rarely have or want to exercise that luxury in my travels which means more $$$$ to the airlines.

But back to your question: what would you consider 'fair' in this context? Fair to whom?

Fair to the people who gave them 2.7 BILLION dollars COVID subsidy - taxpayers, us. They took a MASSIVE handout and turned into RECORD profit, while letting go of hundreds of staff...

Yes, they want to make profit, yes, there is higher demand - but: they could have increased availability of 'normal' rewards available (have they?) and they could have made Rewards Plus less expensive. As it is - reeks of profiteering and abusing their (virtual) monopoly position.

"But I don't go in expecting to feed myself with half-price items" - I never said I expect half-price fares, or cheaper than before... But I did not expect practically ZERO availability for 'normal' prices yet availability at DOUBLE the prices... that's what's not fair.

 

[Human]

For much of the last few years I've been telling people that Qantas points are useless and that anyone who focuses on accumulating them is a schmuck. Personally I focus on accumulating points in other, more useful (to me), FF programmes.

However, I've actually come to think that that's slightly (just slightly) unfair on Qantas. In Qantas' defence:

• To my knowledge they don't actually say in their marketing that accumulating Qantas points means that the account holder will be able to grab long-haul Qantas flights in premium cabins. Maybe they used to say that but they certainly haven't been saying so in a long, long time.
• Qantas points are genuinely useful and helpful when it comes to domestic and short-haul international flights. Over the past few years my wife and I have taken many a holiday to any number of Australian and NZ destinations using Qantas points -- mostly flying Business class.
• Qantas points are also genuinely useful for booking flights on Oneworld airlines that don't originate or terminate in Australia. That actually is a big deal: once you're out of the country, the usefulness of Qantas points increases severalfold.
• Qantas does genuinely provide any number of points redemption opportunities. Yes, the majority of them are not fantastic value (ie. 1c per Qantas point or less). But it's not Qantas' fault if we value the points at more than that and look for redemption opportunities accordingly.

Anyone who accumulates Qantas points in the expectation that they'll be able to use them to book their dream overseas holiday flying Qantas Business or First Class is likely to be disappointed. But really, to what extent is that Qantas' fault?

 

[TurboNator]

For much of the last few years I've been telling people that Qantas points are useless and that anyone who focuses on accumulating them is a schmuck. Personally I focus on accumulating points in other, more useful (to me), FF programmes.

However, I've actually come to think that that's slightly (just slightly) unfair on Qantas. In Qantas' defence:

• To my knowledge they don't actually say in their marketing that accumulating Qantas points means that the account holder will be able to grab long-haul Qantas flights in premium cabins. Maybe they used to say that but they certainly haven't been saying so in a long, long time.
• Qantas points are genuinely useful and helpful when it comes to domestic and short-haul international flights. Over the past few years my wife and I have taken many a holiday to any number of Australian and NZ destinations using Qantas points -- mostly flying Business class.
• Qantas points are also genuinely useful for booking flights on Oneworld airlines that don't originate or terminate in Australia. That actually is a big deal: once you're out of the country, the usefulness of Qantas points increases severalfold.
• Qantas does genuinely provide any number of points redemption opportunities. Yes, the majority of them are not fantastic value (ie. 1c per Qantas point or less). But it's not Qantas' fault if we value the points at more than that and look for redemption opportunities accordingly.

Anyone who accumulates Qantas points in the expectation that they'll be able to use them to book their dream overseas holiday flying Qantas Business or First Class is likely to be disappointed. But really, to what extent is that Qantas' fault?

"

"Anyone who accumulates Qantas points in the expectation that they'll be able to use them to book their dream overseas holiday flying Qantas Business or First Class is likely to be disappointed. But really, to what extent is that Qantas' fault?"

To the extent they could have increased Classic Reward availability and provided Classic Plus at more reasonable prices.

"

• Qantas points are also genuinely useful for booking flights on Oneworld airlines that don't originate or terminate in Australia. That actually is a big deal: once you're out of the country, the usefulness of Qantas points increases severalfold."

How do you book with Oneworld unless via Qantas site? AFAIK you can only use Qantas FF points via Qantas site. If those fares are not appearing on Qantas site one cannot book them... I have done that in the past - but have been searching lately (a lot, for next year) and could not see any.

 

[jase05]

"


To the extent they could have increased Classic Reward availability and provided Classic Plus at more reasonable prices.

"

• Qantas points are also genuinely useful for booking flights on Oneworld airlines that don't originate or terminate in Australia. That actually is a big deal: once you're out of the country, the usefulness of Qantas points increases severalfold."

How do you book with Oneworld unless via Qantas site? AFAIK you can only use Qantas FF points via Qantas site. If those fares are not appearing on Qantas site one cannot book them... I have done that in the past - but have been searching lately (a lot, for next year) and could not see any.

3 random routes in October with availability almost every single day in Business class
BKK-AMM
MEL-CMB
LHR-JFK
Plenty of availability out there if you are flexible

 

[elanshin]

"


To the extent they could have increased Classic Reward availability and provided Classic Plus at more reasonable prices.

"

• Qantas points are also genuinely useful for booking flights on Oneworld airlines that don't originate or terminate in Australia. That actually is a big deal: once you're out of the country, the usefulness of Qantas points increases severalfold."

How do you book with Oneworld unless via Qantas site? AFAIK you can only use Qantas FF points via Qantas site. If those fares are not appearing on Qantas site one cannot book them... I have done that in the past - but have been searching lately (a lot, for next year) and could not see any.

Given plenty of people having success with OWA (which is by far the most valuable use case for QFF) it is definitely doable. It's not easy and requires very good knowledge of the OW alliance but if you do know (or pay someone that knows) you can zip around.

Eg did you know that SYD -CGK (or MEL - CGK) is very commonly available with J reward flights and that from CGK you can also get good reward out on partners OR a cheap Cash fares all over the world.

MH, JL and CI all drop rewards like clockwork exactly as advertised - although with how popular Japan is JL is likely snapped up asap. I remember my friend camping JL reward flight drop times and picking up J tix for holiday late dec into mid jan.

There are also definitely loads of people camping QF award drop times at 10am AEST.

Overall yes QFF is a lot more competitive now, but with a little bit of creativity you can still extract great value from it. It's just not "simple" anymore. To be fair, when the masses catch onto something you need to either be ahead of the curve or hopped onto the next thing and the masses have most definitely hopped onto QFF reward redemptions.

 

[TurboNator]

3 random routes in October with availability almost every single day in Business class
BKK-AMM
MEL-CMB
LHR-JFK
Plenty of availability out there if you are flexible
View attachment 396930View attachment 396931View attachment 396932

Bangkok to Aman... Melbourne to Colombo... London to JFK...

Thanks. Being in Sydney and wanting to go to London or Paris (to visit family) does not quite work...

Again - I think Qantas should have increased availability of classic rewards for their most popular route (as opposed to reducing capacity to LHR as someone has suggested) AND/OR provided classic plus at more reasonable prices.

I understand there is much higher demand post COVID and they need to reduce their liability and would be OK with Classic Plus being 50% more than Classic - I think double the price is too much.

 

[jase05]

Bangkok to Aman... Melbourne to Colombo... London to JFK...

Thanks. Being in Sydney and wanting to go to London or Paris (to visit family) does not quite work...

Again - I think Qantas should have increased availability of classic rewards for their most popular route (as opposed to reducing capacity to LHR as someone has suggested) AND/OR provided classic plus at more reasonable prices.

I understand there is much higher demand post COVID and they need to reduce their liability and would be OK with Classic Plus being 50% more than Classic - I think double the price is too much.

There were just examples and I will add that good award availability at that time SYD-CMB too and likewise CMB-LHR so one stop award availability from Sydney to London.
Just because there isn’t availability on the routes you want doesn’t mean there isn’t good availability if you are creative and flexible

 

[elanshin]

Bangkok to Aman... Melbourne to Colombo... London to JFK...

Thanks. Being in Sydney and wanting to go to London or Paris (to visit family) does not quite work...

Again - I think Qantas should have increased availability of classic rewards for their most popular route (as opposed to reducing capacity to LHR as someone has suggested) AND/OR provided classic plus at more reasonable prices.

I understand there is much higher demand post COVID and they need to reduce their liability and would be OK with Classic Plus being 50% more than Classic - I think double the price is too much.

I just did a quick search, EK mid December has J (and some F) for MEL > SIN > DXB > LHR. (Ignoring the high fees).

DXB > LHR had availability everyday, its Aus > DXB that's hard to find indicating the demand is all aussie induced.

To be absolutely honest though, even with CR+ at 1.5c per point cost its technically in the money for most people. It's just not the highest value but I'd say that the majority of people has earn the points at less than that.

Releasing more CR was likely an option but QF has gone with the CR+ route. Like it or not that's what's been done and if you can't find value, I'd suggest moving - although the grass isn't that much greener on the other side are also a bit more limited now.

Ultimately we have limited options to get off this rock called Australia. One you hit any major Asian or ME hub, you have significantly more options.

I've been searching a lot more SQ flights (through partners as its harder to earn krisflyer at good value here) to get off here now and availability can also be patchy unless you're highly flexible or can hold out for last minute spontaneous deals.

 

[TurboNator]

There were just examples and I will add that good award availability at that time SYD-CMB too and likewise CMB-LHR so one stop award availability from Sydney to London.
Just because there isn’t availability on the routes you want doesn’t mean there isn’t good availability if you are creative and flexible

OK sure, I'll try things like that going forward.

Still - does not change the fact that it used to be much, much easier to get classic reward flights. Yes, I understand there is more demand now, however the difference is simply huge. In addition (and as I've said previously) - availability at, say, 50% higher prices would be reasonable. Double the price - not so much.

 

[TurboNator]

Like it or not that's what's been done and if you can't find value, I'd suggest moving

what, and forfeit my points..? No, I'd like to use them, thanks - and it'd be nice if it weren't as difficult as running a marathon... on one leg... with no water...

P.S. who wants to go to London in December (other than for Christmas/New Year)? I've lived there for 9 years - it's often miserable in June/July, let alone December...

C'mon guys - which ever way you cut it - it is disproportionally more difficult to find good value + availability now comparing to pre-Covid. I say it's due (in good part if not completely) to profiteering by Qantas.

"The strong performance in calendar 2023 meant Loyalty achieved its earnings target of $500 million per annum six months ahead of schedule."

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-group-profit-in-1h24-supports-continued-investment-in-customers/

"In the near term, however, Qantas has downgraded earnings for the division. The airline now expects the division to earn between $500 million and $525 million in the year to June 30"

Qantas shakes up frequent flyer business but will take earnings hit

The overhaul of the airline’s loyalty division is part of a plan to reset the relationships with travellers. Some investors worry that it will affect margins,

www.afr.com

 

[Tiki]

Getting to SCL directly from Australia is even worse either through SYD on QF 27 or the LATAM flights via MEL or AKL. Don't let the display fool you, what they are showing are connections via LAX. None of these have QF 27. Although I would like PE or J, I would be happy with just ONE award seat in Y which should be 41,900 points. Classic Plus as you can see below is a whopping 5 x the usual Classic award or in PE about 2.5 times the cost of a Classic award. Are those flights really that full in October even in economy? Seriously, not one single Y seat on QF 27? Oddly enough if you search LATAM program they have heaps of seats for awards but we have no way to get LATAM points.

 

[elanshin]

Getting to SCL directly from Australia is even worse either through SYD on QF 27 or the LATAM flights via MEL or AKL. Don't let the display fool you, what they are showing are connections via LAX. None of these have QF 27. Although I would like PE or J, I would be happy with just ONE award seat in Y which should be 41,900 points. Classic Plus as you can see below is a whopping 5 x the usual Classic award or in PE about 2.5 times the cost of a Classic award. Are those flights really that full in October even in economy? Seriously, not one single Y seat on QF 27? Oddly enough if you search LATAM program they have heaps of seats for awards but we have no way to get LATAM points.

View attachment 396948

View attachment 396947

Most of these are direct QF27. Funnily there's not as many Economy Y reward seats direct on some of the days with Y+ and J.

 

[Clayton]

Fair to the people who gave them 2.7 BILLION dollars COVID subsidy - taxpayers, us. They took a MASSIVE handout and turned into RECORD profit, while letting go of hundreds of staff...

Yes, they want to make profit, yes, there is higher demand - but: they could have increased availability of 'normal' rewards available (have they?) and they could have made Rewards Plus less expensive. As it is - reeks of profiteering and abusing their (virtual) monopoly position.

"But I don't go in expecting to feed myself with half-price items" - I never said I expect half-price fares, or cheaper than before... But I did not expect practically ZERO availability for 'normal' prices yet availability at DOUBLE the prices... that's what's not fair.

For these very reasons I never rely on QFF and I tend to make my arrangements a year in advance and book with relatively reliable airlines . In any case Qantas international flights have never been available to me because I don't have gold+ status, so am only able to see Qantas metal awards almost 60 days after those with Gold and Platinum status, and there are a great many of these people. Whereas collecting points in 4 or 5 currencies normally means 2 pax can get where we need by either booking preferred flights ahead or booking a stop-gap and then keeping eyes open for awards released close to departure and cancelling the less favourable stop-gap.

 

[Human]

How do you book with Oneworld unless via Qantas site? AFAIK you can only use Qantas FF points via Qantas site. If those fares are not appearing on Qantas site one cannot book them... I have done that in the past - but have been searching lately (a lot, for next year) and could not see any.

Like every other frequent flyer programme in existence, to use the airline's points you need to book via the airline's website.

Partner airline flights I've booked over the past 9 months, with minimal hassle, all via the Qantas website:

• American Airlines domestic first class.
• Japan Airlines long haul international first class.
• Japan Airlines long haul international premium economy.
• Japan Airlines long haul international economy.
• Emirates international first class (twice).
• Emirates international business class.
• Jetstar international.
• Jestar NZ domestic.

... not to mention numerous Qantas domestic and international short-haul flights in economy and business. In fact I've booked so many flights using Qantas points that, for the first time since before COVID, my Qantas points balance went down to almost zero!

I get, and I'm sorry, that your experience is different. My point is that it's possible to use Qantas points without too much hassle (in my experience anyway). Just don't bother looking for that long-haul international flight to/from Australia on Qantas metal.

 

[TurboNator]

For these very reasons I never rely on QFF and I tend to make my arrangements a year in advance and book with relatively reliable airlines . In any case Qantas international flights have never been available to me because I don't have gold+ status, so am only able to see Qantas metal awards almost 60 days after those with Gold and Platinum status, and there are a great many of these people. Whereas collecting points in 4 or 5 currencies normally means 2 pax can get where we need by either booking preferred flights ahead or booking a stop-gap and then keeping eyes open for awards released close to departure and cancelling the less favourable stop-gap.

Hi Clayton, what do you think of the post directly under yours...?

 

[TurboNator]

There's nothing unbelievable about the post.

You skipped over the most important part of it. They said: 'Just don't bother looking for that long-haul international flight to/from Australia on Qantas metal.'

That seems to be exactly what you're looking for.

Err, sorry, did you skip over the part where they are flying sooo much over the next 10 months or so...? They seem to be doing nothing else... plus millions of points...

 

[levelnine]

Err, sorry, did you skip over the part where they are flying sooo much over the next 10 months or so...? They seem to be doing nothing else... plus millions of points...

How is that unbelievable? There are enormous numbers of people that would be in that situation. To mention just a few:
(a) retired/semi-retired people who have accumulated large points balances over their career
(b) digital nomads/people with flexible work policies that generate large numbers of points through credit card spend
(c) people using long-service leave/accumulated leave from COVID-19 that have large points balances from accumulation during COVID-19 with no redemption possibilities.

 

[elanshin]

How is that unbelievable? There are enormous numbers of people that would be in that situation. To mention just a few:
(a) retired/semi-retired people who have accumulated large points balances over their career
(b) digital nomads/people with flexible work policies that generate large numbers of points through credit card spend
(c) people using long-service leave/accumulated leave from COVID-19 that have large points balances from accumulation during COVID-19 with no redemption possibilities.

You forgot the business owners who also can generate millions of points a year and are semi flexible in how they travel. You tend to just be also semi working while travelling.