Article: Reward Seat Release Patterns Have Changed Fundamentally

Wow.. you sure book a lot. Must have used MILLIONS of points, right?

I mean, you specify international FIRST CLASS 3 TIMES + international BUSINESS + domestic FIRST CLASS + international premium economy + "numerous Qantas domestic and international short-haul flights in economy and business"... Please... do tell how did you come across that availability and how many points did it cost? Also - very eclectic selection of carriers and clasess... interesting.

I looked daily, at Feb/March/April/May 2025 and had no luck at all...

Also - fair to assume you don't work, just travel around the world a lot...? I mean, you booked all that over the past 9 months, meaning all that travel has to happen over the next 9-10 months or so, since you cannot book further ahead as we all know...

Sorry and with due respect - but I just cannot believe this, for many reasons.

P.S. to anyone who believes our 'Human' friend here - I have a bridge to sell, good price...
I understand your skepticism. I started out with maybe 750,000 points. During COVID I'd focused on earning Qantas points (given Virgin's precarious state) and I had quite a war-chest as a result!

I'm a teacher and yes, I do travel a lot during school holidays. Travel is my happy place. One of them, anyway.

Note I said that I "booked" those flights. I didn't fly all of them. A few of the flights were for my daughter and her new husband on their honeymoon; several others were for my wife visiting friends. A few were cancelled (eg. I cancelled the JAL economy flight when premium economy became available).

Some of the flights have already been flown; some will be flown over the next several months. I'm organising a big holiday to the USA early next year and several of the flights are for that.

How did I find/book them? A combination of persistence, experience, bloody-mindedness, and seats.aero ... not to mention a big dollop of flexibility!! I do think that a little OCD probably does help when it comes to successfully using frequent flyer points.

One example: I'll be in NYC in January, needing to get home in time for the start of the school year. I could have fumed at Qantas for not releasing reward seats for their NYC flights during the school holidays. But instead I found JAL first class to Tokyo, followed by JAL PE to Singapore, followed by Emirates first class to Melbourne -- all exactly one day earlier than I had wanted, but that's the sort of flexibility you need. 36 hours of flying, as opposed to 20-odd for the direct Qantas flights -- but that's the sort of flexibility you need.

I can't make you believe me and frankly I don't care whether you believe me or not. But everything I wrote in that post and in this one is true.

Sorry if this sounds patronising, but let me know if you have any more questions: I really do want to help.
 
Wow.. you sure book a lot. Must have used MILLIONS of points, right?

I mean, you specify international FIRST CLASS 3 TIMES + international BUSINESS + domestic FIRST CLASS + international premium economy + "numerous Qantas domestic and international short-haul flights in economy and business"... Please... do tell how did you come across that availability and how many points did it cost? Also - very eclectic selection of carriers and clasess... interesting.

I looked daily, at Feb/March/April/May 2025 and had no luck at all...

Also - fair to assume you don't work, just travel around the world a lot...? I mean, you booked all that over the past 9 months, meaning all that travel has to happen over the next 9-10 months or so, since you cannot book further ahead as we all know...

Sorry and with due respect - but I just cannot believe this, for many reasons.

P.S. to anyone who believes our 'Human' friend here - I have a bridge to sell, good price...
Not sure you are going to win friends and influence people by being rude <redacted>.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Not sure you are going to win friends and influence people by being rude <redacted>.
I am not trying to win friends... and I was neither rude or ... the other thing. You could say I was sarcastic and cynical.
I understand your skepticism. I started out with maybe 750,000 points. During COVID I'd focused on earning Qantas points (given Virgin's precarious state) and I had quite a war-chest as a result!

I'm a teacher and yes, I do travel a lot during school holidays. Travel is my happy place. One of them, anyway.

Note I said that I "booked" those flights. I didn't fly all of them. A few of the flights were for my daughter and her new husband on their honeymoon; several others were for my wife visiting friends. A few were cancelled (eg. I cancelled the JAL economy flight when premium economy became available).

Some of the flights have already been flown; some will be flown over the next several months. I'm organising a big holiday to the USA early next year and several of the flights are for that.

How did I find/book them? A combination of persistence, experience, bloody-mindedness, and seats.aero ... not to mention a big dollop of flexibility!! I do think that a little OCD probably does help when it comes to successfully using frequent flyer points.

One example: I'll be in NYC in January, needing to get home in time for the start of the school year. I could have fumed at Qantas for not releasing reward seats for their NYC flights during the school holidays. But instead I found JAL first class to Tokyo, followed by JAL PE to Singapore, followed by Emirates first class to Melbourne -- all exactly one day earlier than I had wanted, but that's the sort of flexibility you need. 36 hours of flying, as opposed to 20-odd for the direct Qantas flights -- but that's the sort of flexibility you need.

I can't make you believe me and frankly I don't care whether you believe me or not. But everything I wrote in that post and in this one is true.

Sorry if this sounds patronising, but let me know if you have any more questions: I really do want to help.
OK sure, that's all plausible.

EDIT: it does not, however, address my point that availability and pricing to LHR from Australia has changed DRASTICALLY and unfairly against 'ordinary' punters. And then you have:

"The strong performance in calendar 2023 meant Loyalty achieved its earnings target of $500 million per annum six months ahead of schedule."

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/m...4-supports-continued-investment-in-customers/

"In the near term, however, Qantas has downgraded earnings for the division. The airline now expects the division to earn between $500 million and $525 million in the year to June 30"

www.afr.com

Qantas shakes up frequent flyer business but will take earnings hit

The overhaul of the airline’s loyalty division is part of a plan to reset the relationships with travellers. Some investors worry that it will affect margins,
www.afr.com
www.afr.com
 
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Hi Clayton, what do you think of the post directly under yours...?
Its fine, I also have booked JAL MEL-NRT flights for March 2025 on Q points, and I don't book Emirates due to the high cash component (I've previously flown Emirates 1st class before their cash charges skyrocketed), and haven't found occasion to book Jetstar. As others have said the hardest part of award flying is exiting Australia, and this requires being diligent at the opening of the booking calendar, often the award flights are booked by others within hours if not minutes of them being released. Others have pointed out that Non-Oneworld carriers are often slighly easier to getout of Australia via TPE, BKK, SIN or even the Americas.
 
Yes, getting out of Oz using QFF can be an issue. One needs to be flexible.

Yesterday, I booked MEL to KUL using Velocity points on Singapore Airlines for September.

Coming back using MH and EK metal, Qantas Points.
 
Getting out of Australia is the hardest part

The lack of long haul rewards is part of the COVID post COVID story

1. Double the number of QFF members in around a decade or so so more demand


Less supply
2. Less QF metal flights to anywhere

3. The Dreamliner flights have ZERO F seats

4. EK cut down their flights onto Australia and many of them have not resumed. Including flights to Adelaide

5. The spit between QF & QR seeing withdrawal of flights from the QFF program

6. And then there’s the bulk seat drops… taking away drip feed options

So
Think through the options

How many QFF members want to fly between Berlin and Spain or Morocco or Milan to Cairo ?
There seems plenty of availability


flexibility is KEY
you want a specific date well that might not work

The other issue rarely debated is the earn / burn stories

Unless you are in points club there isn’t away to earn status not points when you burn the points. It’s not like one flys less. It’s that the airline decides to punish you because you burn points.

Bit like a roving speed camera designed to catch you speeding

They could prevent you speeding (Poland and Czech put radars at the point of entry into a village in plain sight and amazingly people slow down.) but they don’t

They’d rather punish you for stopping spending with them (and no family pooling either)
 
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does qantas sometimes release flights back to australia during school holiday periods? looking at a singapore to mel flight in the next school holiday period and its completely blank.
 
does qantas sometimes release flights back to australia during school holiday periods? looking at a singapore to mel flight in the next school holiday period and its completely blank.
Your best bet is the Emirates SIN-MEL fifth freedom flight -- EK404. Emirates does tend to release seats for this flight in the weeks and days before the flight. Check every day or, better, set up a search with something like seats.aero or ExpertFlyer.
 
The other issue rarely debated is the earn / burn stories

Unless you are in points club there isn’t away to earn status not points when you burn the points. It’s not like one flys less. It’s that the airline decides to punish you because you burn points.
My solution is to 'burn' points on my wifes travel and pay for my tickets so I keep gold status. In our case it works quite well as I travel more than my wife.
 
I am not trying to win friends... and I was neither rude or ... the other thing. You could say I was sarcastic and cynical.

OK sure, that's all plausible.

EDIT: it does not, however, address my point that availability and pricing to LHR from Australia has changed DRASTICALLY and unfairly against 'ordinary' punters. And then you have:

"The strong performance in calendar 2023 meant Loyalty achieved its earnings target of $500 million per annum six months ahead of schedule."

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/m...4-supports-continued-investment-in-customers/

"In the near term, however, Qantas has downgraded earnings for the division. The airline now expects the division to earn between $500 million and $525 million in the year to June 30"

www.afr.com

Qantas shakes up frequent flyer business but will take earnings hit

The overhaul of the airline’s loyalty division is part of a plan to reset the relationships with travellers. Some investors worry that it will affect margins,
www.afr.com
www.afr.com
Let me just unpack a few things here.

1) Availability on QANTAS (and it's preferred routes). This is where the bulk of people's frustrations are as Qantas currently has a huge fleet shortage and just lack of seats in the air. The 747s have since retired post covid, we've lost 6 a380s (2 permanently and 3-4 have been AWOL at any given time). that's just been replaced by 3 b787s so we've seen a big reduction in supply and routes.

We also lost Qatar as a partner and Cathay, BA, AA (soon Finair) are all holding back some seats (granted Qantas holds back too for their partners). There is one nice gain having China Airlines (through Taipei) though.

On top of that, therr were huge points banks being built from lack of ability to use points during covid and just money thrown around in general.

You could argue that Qantas should release more seats, but that is what they've done with CR+. It's not anywhere near as good or valuable as CR, but it's not necessarily terrible either. It converts points into cash at what I would call a fair rate. It's just not a glamourous or good rate which people hope for.

Following on from availability is actually, how the search engine works. If you look for SYD > LHR it will try to send you via Singapore first and foremost as that's QF's main trunk route. It will also try to do it as one journey.

However it will never show a journey like SYD - SIN (stop for a day or 2) then SIN - LHR. And you can replace SIN with KUL, HND, HKG, DXB etc. Right now on the day of release (and a few days around it) I can see for Jul 2025, JL SYD > HND then HND > LHR all in F (or J). They just may not be all on exactly one day. This is what we mean by needing to know the network.

2) The other thing I want to address is loyalty being bigger and bigger portion of the business is something that will happen to many airlines post covid.

Every airline had an eye opener to just how ridiculously profitable loyalty was during covid when airlines like Delta opened their books. They had to use their loyalty division as collateral for loans during covid so a lot more financial info became known.

Loyalty division for QF will also continue to increase it's presence over time here as well. This means more people with QFF points.

You could say this is not fair to the average punter, but ultimately QF is a business. As you get more engagement, to extract value you have to be ahead of the curve. This means either with knowledge and know how to beat the "average" punter.

If you want to learn, this is actually a very good resource to be able to have people help you figure out how to do it with routes as well as information drops as usually any news gets here fast (usually by the time its somewhere like FB or OzB the people here have already mass booked stuff).

Edit: I do want to also say. I do think there are still many faults with Qantas, the airline but I make a distinction between Qantas and utilising QFF points program.
 
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My solution is to 'burn' points on my wifes travel and pay for my tickets so I keep gold status. In our case it works quite well as I travel more than my wife.
We do this too - I pay and try to maintain my WP and use points for Mr Seat 0A who has LTG.
 
Let me just unpack a few things here.

1) Availability on QANTAS (and it's preferred routes). This is where the bulk of people's frustrations are as Qantas currently has a huge fleet shortage and just lack of seats in the air. The 747s have since retired post covid, we've lost 6 a380s (2 permanently and 3-4 have been AWOL at any given time). that's just been replaced by 3 b787s so we've seen a big reduction in supply and routes.

We also lost Qatar as a partner and Cathay, BA, AA (soon Finair) are all holding back some seats (granted Qantas holds back too for their partners). There is one nice gain having China Airlines (through Taipei) though.

On top of that, therr were huge points banks being built from lack of ability to use points during covid and just money thrown around in general.

You could argue that Qantas should release more seats, but that is what they've done with CR+. It's not anywhere near as good or valuable as CR, but it's not necessarily terrible either. It converts points into cash at what I would call a fair rate. It's just not a glamourous or good rate which people hope for.

Following on from availability is actually, how the search engine works. If you look for SYD > LHR it will try to send you via Singapore first and foremost as that's QF's main trunk route. It will also try to do it as one journey.

However it will never show a journey like SYD - SIN (stop for a day or 2) then SIN - LHR. And you can replace SIN with KUL, HND, HKG, DXB etc. Right now on the day of release (and a few days around it) I can see for Jul 2025, JL SYD > HND then HND > LHR all in F (or J). They just may not be all on exactly one day. This is what we mean by needing to know the network.

2) The other thing I want to address is loyalty being bigger and bigger portion of the business is something that will happen to many airlines post covid.

Every airline had an eye opener to just how ridiculously profitable loyalty was during covid when airlines like Delta opened their books. They had to use their loyalty division as collateral for loans during covid so a lot more financial info became known.

Loyalty division for QF will also continue to increase it's presence over time here as well. This means more people with QFF points.

You could say this is not fair to the average punter, but ultimately QF is a business. As you get more engagement, to extract value you have to be ahead of the curve. This means either with knowledge and know how to beat the "average" punter.

If you want to learn, this is actually a very good resource to be able to have people help you figure out how to do it with routes as well as information drops as usually any news gets here fast (usually by the time its somewhere like FB or OzB the people here have already mass booked stuff).

Edit: I do want to also say. I do think there are still many faults with Qantas, the airline but I make a distinction between Qantas and utilising QFF points program.
Thanks for all of that, appreciate it. Mind - I have to disagree re:

"You could argue that Qantas should release more seats, but that is what they've done with CR+. It's not anywhere near as good or valuable as CR, but it's not necessarily terrible either."

I think CR+ is terrible - as I've already mentioned once or twice - they could have made it say 50% more expensive than CR... DOUBLE the price (and that's the best I could find for business class) is too much.

NOTE: I did bite the bullet and booked CR+ as I had no choice... had to book, around specific dates (give or take a couple of days) and could not afford to wait/risk too long (as in - wait and hope a better deal can be found over the next 7-8 months before we travel).

I will be keeping an eye on the fares pretty much daily... and if the right deal comes I guess I can change.. I just have to check can I actually cancel and get a full refund (less 5-6k points fee) for this booking...
 
It looks like there may have been a mini Classic Reward drop. Seats in Y are now available in Aug and Oct using QF27 SYD SCL. Unfortunately no PE but maybe a chance to upgrade later. But at least now I can stop stressing about how I am getting to South America! I'm returning via the USA so that was never a problem.
 

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