JB, what factors and how in advance are potential diversions due to weather planned (if they can be 'planned') and what would they be taking into account?
Reason I ask is that according to Qantassource QF52 inbound was diverted to CNS on Monday morning due to 'weather' at BNE but the only weather from about 4am til after 9am was light rain showers... (my dogs decided they wanted to go out that early so I noticed what it was like outside). The BOM shows there was all of about 3mm recorded at BNE on Monday and there had been a thunder storm early the previous evening but would have been well off the coast by the time 5am rolled around. The diversion appears to have commenced about the time it was in the region of the NT/SA/QLD border.
It's a bit hard to say why one particular flight would have diverted without access to the flight plans, weather forecasts, and weather actuals that the crew used.
Firstly though, the weather that you see on the ground doesn't have much to do with it. If the TTF weather reports (trend type forecasts) include something of interest, then the crew must allow for that. If there is a possibility of fog, then you have to cater for that, whether or not the fog actually eventuates. And the same for thunderstorms or anything else that goes below the 'alternate criteria'. So, if, a couple of hours out, the TTF required an alternate (or extended holding), and the crew did not have that available to them, then they have no choice but to divert. And, as most flights don't arrive with fuel to divert to places that are hundreds of miles away from destination, that diversion will have to happen a long way out. Yes, if they'd continued the next TTF might have been ok, but it's only the one that is current at the decision point that is relevant.
Diversions can be planned a very long way out. Well before take off in fact. On a recent flight to Dubai the forecast had thunderstorms over the entire period of interest, so we would have had to carry an alternate all the way to touchdown. Given that we also needed extensive holding fuel, that wasn't easily possible. One way around it would have been to go as fast as possible, have a pre planned landing at some other point (Muscat would be one way to do it, but another would be to carry much less fuel to start with, and go via Perth). I actually chose a third option, and offloaded almost all of the cargo. On another trip, in the 767, we simply could not carry sufficient fuel out of Melbourne to arrive in HK with adequate alternate fuel (when the typhoon is around you might need to divert a long way). So we flew straight to Darwin, where they were waiting for us, and had us in and max fuel on board in about 20 minutes.