Re: Hot days and performance
JB747, how does the average punter work out if an airline is safe to fly?
take off to landing ratios, previous casualties, age of aircraft, price of ticket, corruption index of government, stability of government and country, ???
That's an interesting question, and one that's not particularly simple to answer. It is clouded by the rubbish printed in the media, and by the marketing used so effectively by some airlines. As a starter, nice champagne, or a pretty girl serving it, is not an indicator of anything.
The media is a terrible (i.e. useless) source of information.
As a starter though, I'm not a fan of airlines that train FOs from scratch, and so have very low hour people in the right hand seat of big airliners (as the operating FO). That's especially an issue in cultures in which speaking up is not the normal thing. Imagine QF32 with a 500 hour FO.
Airlines that are big users of contract pilots also raise a very red flag (the airline has no investment in these pilots). If their entire reason for being is cheap fares...you have to ask what corners are being cut...and there will be many.
One would hope that the take off to landing ratio is 1.
Previous casualties would certainly give you something to think about, but if you look at some incidents, it was purely bad luck that one airline was affected, and not another. In the Malaysian shoot down case, it could just as easily have been any number of others. Singair and Emirates were not far away. Does that make Malaysian any worse than them? Remember that you don't hear about the vast majority of incidents. People have short memories too...just picking on Singapore (for example) they crashed a 747, a Learjet, and a subsidiary crashed a 737. Are they safer than Malaysian?
The public don't normally hear about how an airline responds to an incident, but if part of that response is firing the pilots involved, then I'd tend to avoid them. Almost invariably, there is more to it than a simple pilot error (fatigue, time pressures, etc), and firing the pilots involved is simply scapegoating, and most likely does not address the real cause.
Age of the aircraft has little to do with safety. In fact, new aircraft, especially if new to the operator, can be very dangerous.
Operators that appear from nowhere, and then rapidly expand, are unlikely to have decent management and control systems in place.
Over the years I've watched numerous responses to bad weather. Sometimes you'll see people avoid it and hold, whilst others are known for blundering through. A couple of times I've lined up on the runway, looked at the radar, and decided not to go...and immediately I've vacated someone else has taken off into the same storm I've avoided. Thats the culture of their airline...just go. No matter what.
Actually, I'm pretty much convinced that passengers don't care about safety. They will choose based on price and marketing. Safety only becomes an issue after there is an issue. And I guess even unsafe airlines manage to keep the landing to take off ratio close to 1.