Australia to Reduce Incoming Int. Passenger Capacity from July 2021

[mviy]

It will take the load off hotel quarantine. Would envisage two caps - one for people who can go into home quarantine and one for hotel quarantine. So it would make it more viable for airlines as they could bring bigger numbers back. Could be a logistics nightmare for them though.

They may need to try and keep the home quarantine passengers as separated as possible from those who aren't. The detail will be interesting.

 

[dajop]

The question I have, how many Australian vaccinated travellers, have travelled overseas since being vaccinated, to low risk countries (and what defines low risk countries), that have a home in Adelaide to do home quarantine in?

Or are they seeking volunteers to travel overseas to such countries and return as part of the trials?

 

[mviy]

The government also has a strong preference that anyone given an exemption is fully vaccinated. I wonder whether it'll only be a matter of time before it becomes a requirement to be vaccinated except for medical reasons in some limited circumstances e.g. compassionate reasons where a trip is urgent.

 

[Flying mermaid]

They may need to try and keep the home quarantine passengers as separated as possible from those who aren't. The detail will be interesting.

It also doesn’t sound like it will be implemented until phase 2. Will be helpful once they allow Australians to travel again…..

 

[mviy]

The question I have, how many Australian vaccinated travellers, have travelled overseas since being vaccinated, to low risk countries (and what defines low risk countries), that have a home in Adelaide to do home quarantine in?

Low risk countries are probably those with high vaccination rates, good hospital and contract tracing systems and PCR testing locations that the government trusts. These would be countries which have low rates of passengers coming to Australia that end up testing positive for COVID-19 that they caught overseas.

In a Green Amber Red traffic system these would be amber countries (or perhaps temporarily Green countries say if NZ went into lockdown for a short period).

One would hope countries like Singapore, UK and US would make such a list, if not initially after a period of time.

As vaccination rates improve over time one would hope the list of low risk countries would generally grow.

Say the UK makes the list it could be that if you were in say France or Italy or Ireland etc. and were able to make your way to the UK and spend a few weeks there if you are vaccinated (in Australia initially, but later probably accepting vaccination in some other countries) and test negative before departure you could home quarantine.

If we can get to the point that most travellers from the UK and/or US can home quarantine that would significantly ease the burden on hotel quarantine and facilities like Howard Springs.

 

[dajop]

Low risk countries are probably those with high vaccination rates, good hospital and contract tracing systems and PCR testing locations that the government trusts. These would be countries which have low rates of passengers coming to Australia that end up testing positive for COVID-19 that they caught overseas.

In a Green Amber Red traffic system these would be amber countries (or perhaps temporarily Green countries say if NZ went into lockdown for a short period).

One would hope countries like Singapore, UK and US would make such a list, if not initially after a period of time.

As vaccination rates improve over time one would hope the list of low risk countries would generally grow.

Yes, but I'm just trying to think about how you would go about setting up such a trial? What would the parameters be that you're looking at to determine if the trial is a success or not? Or is just to measure peoples compliance with staying at home?

Say, you took Singapore as a low risk country. Someone who is in Singapore, regardless of vaccination status, has a low probability of having the virus, as it has not been allowed to "let rip". So what would the result really mean? You took 100 travellers from Singapore, half vaccinated and half not vaccinated, and with PCR test 72 hours prior to departure (as currently required), with only 3- 5 new cases a day being recorded in a population of 5,500,000, throw in the possibility that 5x as many are going undetected, the chance of someone testing positive in the 3 days after they've had their test is probably in the order of 1 in 75,000... so in 100 travellers per day you might expect a positive once every 2 years (and that's assuming lots of cases remain undetected).

It's probably more meaningful for countries like US, UK, where there are strong vaccination rates but also still significant amounts of community transmission.

 

[Pushka]

Yes, but I'm just trying to think about how you would go about setting up such a trial? What would the parameters be that you're looking at to determine if the trial is a success or not? Or is just to measure peoples compliance with staying at home?

Say, you took Singapore as a low risk country. Someone who is in Singapore, regardless of vaccination status, has a low probability of having the virus, as it has not been allowed to "let rip". So what would the result really mean? You took 100 travellers from Singapore, half vaccinated and half not vaccinated, and with PCR test 72 hours prior to departure (as currently required), with only 3- 5 new cases a day in a population of 5,500,000 the chance of someone testing positive in the 3 days after they've had their test is probably in the order of 1 in 365,000... so in 100 travellers per day you might expect a positive once every 10 years.

It's probably more meaningful for countries like US, UK, where there are strong vaccination rates but also still significant amounts of community transmission.

Agree. I don't know what success would look like. If people develop covid during self isolation, would that be a fail? Or would they only be assessing compliance?

 

[RAM]

Yep. And the response was "Our government will consider models such as New Zealand’s as we look to re-open. However it must be stressed that Australia’s population is over five times larger than New Zealand’s, making the practical implications of operating such a program in Australia harder."

He also said "With respect to Australians living abroad, Australian citizens overseas are entitled to return to Australia provided they complete two weeks of hotel quarantine. However, they are still required to apply for an exemption in order to leave the country.". I corrected his incorrect statement.

Thanks for the info.

Odd, Australia has 5 times the population (true) but about 5 times the hotel bed capacity believe it or not.

Australia a little over 700,000 hotel beds

NZ a little over 138,000 beds.

NZ has no 'stranded Kiwis' marooned overseas.

Australia has over 30,000, that seems much more than 5 times...

What is the old saying about a workman blaming his tools?

 

[mviy]

I think a fail would be if home quarantine led to a COVID-19 outbreak in the community i.e. community transmission. Failures in compliance would obviously be related to that.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Don’t want to be negative here, but Singapore Air were less than useless in December/January. Dr FM phoned them multiple times and they refused to give her any information. Two weeks before her flight they were still saying it was too early to know. Because she had a J ticket that was cancellable with a $600 penalty the day before, she ended up buying a ticket with Qatar and was back in Adelaide in hotel quarantine when Singapore finally cancelled two days before. Hopefully Seat0B’s son will have a better experience and I think phoning and checking is a good thing to do, but they are not necessarily that helpful.

Agree, although I suspect we're talking two different things here. If Singapore Airlines didn't cancel the flight, not a lot that can be done. However, Seat0B now has a heads up that the flight may not be carrying passengers... best not to wait for a call from AA but to proactively check the booking as often as possible and be ready to act before everyone else gets the chance (Or alternatively, if the fare allows, secure different flights now.)

 

[roogirl]

@Seat0B just a heads up that DFAT/Qantas has just put on repat flights from london departing 21,22 and 23 July. If your son can get himself there might be worth a call on the embassy?

 

[moa999]

A friend sent me this re Sydney lockdown. Unfortunately I have come across many, many people “self isolating” who think a quick nip down the pub is acceptable. I imagine enforcement will be horrific which perhaps goes some way to explain the reluctance. I’d be reluctant.

Could be wording issue..

Bondi had a few specific venues with test and isolate for 14 days or, test till negative.

But also had a general catchall for anyone who'd been in the Westfield or carpark for 7 days to test with no need to isolate.

(I myself tested on this basis) though I did self-isolate till the result, and haven't seen any relatives in over 3wks

 

[focusedbear]

Going OT, but I'm a bit puzzled by the comment about "likely cancel their Gold Coast school holiday trip", is this an old comment? By now there are no holidays on the GC for anyone who's been in Sydney.

Yes. 22nd June to be precise - see the link

Alerts issued for flights, more NSW venues as Victoria bans travel from Sydney ‘red zones’

The growing eastern suburbs cluster has prompted New Zealand to pause quarantine-free travel with NSW and for Victoria to declare seven Sydney local government areas “red zones”.

www.smh.com.au

Some context is helpful in this instance.

 

[Pushka]

Interesting in SA media. That SA para-olympians could be part of the first trial in a couple of months. Need to have been vaccinated in Australia.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Agree, although I suspect we're talking two different things here. If Singapore Airlines didn't cancel the flight, not a lot that can be done. However, Seat0B now has a heads up that the flight may not be carrying passengers... best not to wait for a call from AA but to proactively check the booking as often as possible and be ready to act before everyone else gets the chance (Or alternatively, if the fare allows, secure different flights now.)

It’s really hard - Singapore Air doesn’t give out much information in our (limited) experience, so you don’t tend to know if the flight is cancelled or you have been booted off it due to caps until very close to the time. Definitely checking the booking regularly is a good idea - I think Dr FM was doing it multiple times a day at one point.

the problem with securing different flights is you could be jumping from the frying pan into the fire. At one point Dr FM almost booked with Emirates in order to avoid trying to go through Singapore and then Emirates cancelled all flights!

Anyway let’s not get too pessimistic for poor Seat02B. Hopefully it will all work and she will be hugging (or not) her son in August.

meanwhile my son has commenced talking to Madrooster and he has already steered him away from potential disasters

 

[DC3]

Interesting in SA media. That SA para-olympians could be part of the first trial in a couple of months. Need to have been vaccinated in Australia.

Will there be another announcement?

 

[dajop]

Will there be another announcement?

So Paralympics return early September. Let's look at the timelines for this much heralded "trial" ... start (maybe?) during September, run for a month or two, then another month or two to analyse results. This should mean there is an announcement sometime during December giving a date for when the results of the trial will be announced. And an announcement during January about when the next announcement (about policy changes) will be made.

 

[mviy]

It would be disappointing for preparing for the trial to take a couple of months. As @dajop mentions this would strongly point towards home quarantine starting on a wider scale sometime in 2022.

 

[Flying mermaid]

In his press conference Morrison indicated home quarantine would be phase 2 or 3, so I wouldn’t be holding my breath. Still doing the trial this year means they will be ready to go once we get to that point. He also indicated they would get the results of the Doherty modelling this month, so that will give us an idea of when phase 2 is likely.

of course this all requires the crazy Premiers to sign off on it and that’s going to be an interesting exercise!

 

[drron]

In his press conference Morrison indicated home quarantine would be phase 2 or 3, so I wouldn’t be holding my breath. Still doing the trial this year means they will be ready to go once we get to that point. He also indicated they would get the results of the Doherty modelling this month, so that will give us an idea of when phase 2 is likely.

of course this all requires the crazy Premiers to sign off on it and that’s going to be an interesting exercise!

I hope that they let the States make their own decisions and not make it a decision binding of all.
So say If NSW allowed Home Quarantine I wonder whether Premiers who didn't allow it found their poll numbers dropping so decided to go with the flow.