Australian Housing Affordability Discussion

[penegal]

A bit of satire.

OMG, that is so common. It happened to a friend of a friend of mine.

 

[whatmeworry]

Reports first home owners getting outbid in the inner, middle and outer suburbs of Melbourne by cashed up baby boomers.

Melbourne is seeing an upsurge in well-off baby boomers paying cash for residential properties and it’s making life extremely challenging for younger buyers.
Jellis Craig Fitzroy-based director Craig Shearn said young professional couples targeting period cottages were being routinely outbid by cash buyers.
“They just get smashed at auctions by the people who have got cash,” he said.

Noel Jones Balwyn partner Joe Butler said two-bedroom villa units in Surrey Hills and adjoining suburbs had soared in price over the past 12 months.
“They were fetching prices in the mid-$600,000s,” he said. “They are now fetching in the mid-$800,000s.”

Some remarkable prices are being paid by downsizers in Melbourne’s outer ring, too.
Barry Plant auctioneer James Hatzimoisis has recently sold a number of single-level homes to older couples.
He said his selling staff had been blown away when a three-bedroom property at 12 Pembury Way, Hillside last week attracted five bidders and sold for $851,000, well ahead of the $700,000 reserve.

The house went to a middle-aged couple who wanted to live closer to their adult daughter.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/firs...d-in-melbournes-hot-auctions-20170312-guwbqk/

 

[JohnK]

For those with money. The self funded retirees would love that now.

Money would nearly double after 10 years. That's a pretty good investment with very little risk and no capital gain tax either.

 

[drron]

And the Chinese are now buying development sites-
https://www.domain.com.au/news/infl...-of-australias-sites-in-2016-20170131-gu25bb/

 

[RAM]

And the Chinese are now buying development sites-
https://www.domain.com.au/news/infl...-of-australias-sites-in-2016-20170131-gu25bb/

They have been for over ten years. For example, Greenland Developments is 100% owned by Shanghai City Council and currently (I think) ranks as Australia's third largest apartment developer.

[h=3]China Greenland Sells $250 Million Sydney Apartments at Open ...[/h]https://www.bloomberg.com/.../china-greenland-sells-a-275-million-sydney-apartmen...


Dec 8, 2013 - Lend Lease Group, Australia's biggest listed property developer, ... Greenland began sales simultaneously in Sydney, Shanghai, Hong Kong ...

When I last did a check there were over 18 large scale 100% mainland China-owned property developers operating in Australia.

Interesting that Greenland did not get a mention in the article. I wonder if the report just looked for property companies Chinese name or had been mentioned as Chinese in a recent article?

 

[whatmeworry]

Foreign buyers outnumbering first home buyers in Sydney with plans to increase stamp duty on foreigners.

The state government is considering increasing the stamp duty paid by foreign investors in an effort to help first home buyers in NSW.
New figures reveal more than one in 10 residential properties sold in NSW are being snapped up by foreigners, with a third of them bought by Chinese nationals.
Data from the Office of State Revenue shows that in the three months from July to September 2016, foreign nationals accounted for 11 per cent – or 2995 – of residential property purchases in NSW compared to 7.51 per cent by first home buyers, according to NSW Labor.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/push...irsthome-owners-buying-homes-20170314-guxfw5/

 

[JohnK]

And 10-yr term deposits hit 13+℅

Where do you see 10 year term deposits? I tried looking last night but none of the search sites have 10 year term deposits and 5 year term deposits are as awful as 3 month term deposits.

 

[whatmeworry]

ASIC warning against a housing bubble in Melbourne and Sydney.

The head of Australia's corporate watchdog has again sounded the alarm over Sydney and Melbourne's housing markets, saying they're in the midst of a price bubble.
Australian Securities and Investments Commission chairman Greg Medcraft issued the warning at the regulator's annual forum in Sydney where he also revealed the watchdog was still considering taking action against the Commonwealth Bank over the alleged rigging of a key interest rate.

ASIC warns on housing bubble, cyber threats

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

ASIC warning against a housing bubble in Melbourne and Sydney.

You can tell all the regulators are starting to cover their assess as they're now willing to admit there's a bubble.

 

[whatmeworry]

Analyst says we need a 2% increase in interest rates to bring house prices under control.

Senior Analyst at Shaw and Partners, David Spotswood says low interest rates are to blame.
"You read a lot about the supply of apartments, Chinese buying, but the dominate factor in the determination of house prices is interest rates, interest rates, the availability of credit and if people have got a job or not, it is as simple mathematical equation," he said.


He adds that cheap credit is encouraging borrowers despite soft wages growth.
"House prices were five times yearly salary, now they are 8 times," Mr Spotswood said.
But credit won't remain cheap forever.
Mr Spotswood says a 2 per cent lift in mortgage rates, or the official cash rate, would prompt a 5 to 10 per cent fall in house prices nationally.

Higher interest rates needed to lower house prices | SBS News

 

[JohnK]

Housing bubble? What housing bubble? Just keep printing money.

 

[alieninperth]

Lateline had a housing affordability special last night, here's the link (Lateline - 21/03/2017: Lateline Special on Housing Affordability).

One of the things that was talked about a lot was supply and demand. Most of the work around housing affordability has centred on the demand side of the equation (FHOG, stamp duty concessions, Shared Equity schemes [although these can be both supply and demand]) with very little discussion on the supply side (limited to the impact that a change in CGT and -ve gearing would bring about). While I know that this largely sits with the States rather than the Federal govt, there are many ways that both levels of government could get involved in this:
remove stamp duty for properties below 75% of the median price,
only allow -ve gearing on new supply only
only allow cgt exemption on new supply only,
only allow cgt exemption if the properties are leased to low income households through a registered community housing provider
planning density bonuses where 'real' affordable housing is also produced

Broad based stamp duty exemptions below a certain level will allow more fluidity in the market below that rate while at the same time imposing a cap on potential 'natural market increases' as a result of the policy.

My rationale for this is fairly simple, incentivise what you want. We want new supply, OK lets get the investor sector to help deliver this through encouraging investment in new buildings rather than older established dwellings. Allow the CGT exemption for renting to low income families as they will potentially losing income from reduced rental income.

Planning bonuses can work really well, but only when the affordable housing that is produced is actually affordable.

All just my 2c.

 

[travelislife]

Lateline had a housing affordability special last night, here's the link (Lateline - 21/03/2017: Lateline Special on Housing Affordability).

One of the things that was talked about a lot was supply and demand. Most of the work around housing affordability has centred on the demand side of the equation (FHOG, stamp duty concessions, Shared Equity schemes [although these can be both supply and demand]) with very little discussion on the supply side (limited to the impact that a change in CGT and -ve gearing would bring about). While I know that this largely sits with the States rather than the Federal govt, there are many ways that both levels of government could get involved in this:
remove stamp duty for properties below 75% of the median price,
only allow -ve gearing on new supply only
only allow cgt exemption on new supply only,
only allow cgt exemption if the properties are leased to low income households through a registered community housing provider
planning density bonuses where 'real' affordable housing is also produced

Broad based stamp duty exemptions below a certain level will allow more fluidity in the market below that rate while at the same time imposing a cap on potential 'natural market increases' as a result of the policy.

My rationale for this is fairly simple, incentivise what you want. We want new supply, OK lets get the investor sector to help deliver this through encouraging investment in new buildings rather than older established dwellings. Allow the CGT exemption for renting to low income families as they will potentially losing income from reduced rental income.

Planning bonuses can work really well, but only when the affordable housing that is produced is actually affordable.

All just my 2c.

Victoria is starting to make changes on the supply side but the Nimby's will jump up and down. Increasing allowable heights to allow 3 story instead of 2 story in zonings, etc.

 

[alieninperth]

Victoria is starting to make changes on the supply side but the Nimby's will jump up and down. Increasing allowable heights to allow 3 story instead of 2 story in zonings, etc.

Good to hear, Nimbyism will always be there unfortunately.

 

[cove]

Many thousands of building blocks are being created in Melbourne so the under supply of homes will get fixed in a couple of years. It takes a while but it is happening.

 

[whatmeworry]

Many thousands of building blocks are being created in Melbourne so the under supply of homes will get fixed in a couple of years. It takes a while but it is happening.

Or we could could stop importing 400k people every year and stop Negative gearing or reduce CGT or at least increase interest rates ... something something something can't let our last industry (construction) down

 

[Hvr]

Many thousands of building blocks are being created in Melbourne so the under supply of homes will get fixed in a couple of years. It takes a while but it is happening.

I think the correct term would be under utilisation of current residential property. There are thousands of vacant residences that if properly occupied would alleviate the current shortage.

They have access to current infrastructure which means it would be cheaper than building thousands more residences and support services etc.

However, if this were to happen developers wouldn't make as much money.

 

[travelislife]

Many thousands of building blocks are being created in Melbourne so the under supply of homes will get fixed in a couple of years. It takes a while but it is happening.

New blocks in the boondocks isn't what matters. Supply out there is fine. It is infill development creating supply that has been severely restricted. The planning system in Victoria at least is very broken. It is crazy each council has different rulings, what is good for one side of town should be good for the other (talking medium density). Definitely need restrictions on 4+ story heights. Asia and Europe cater for their populations in the 3-4 story mark, nearly impossible to get that in a lot of suburbs in Melbourne.

 

[love_the_life]

Well, Adelaide is the place to be by the sound of it:
Adelaide: Lower house prices, better quality of life make it ‘almost irresistible’ for Sydney and Melbourne buyers

 

[okiedokie]

Don't worry, plenty of Adelaide suburbs near the city fetch over a million.

Units seem quite a lot less expensive than Sydney + Melbourne though.

Adelaide has tons of 'boganville' that is appropriately priced - think $300k. Meanwhile in Sydney & Melbourne even undesirable areas are getting up there. This is probably why the Adelaide average is so low - plenty of high employment, cheap house areas.