Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Not sure if new news - second Melbourne apartment locked down (from news.com.au

A seven-storey apartment building in inner Melbourne has been locked down after a resident tested positive to coronavirus.

The state’s Covid-19 commander Jeroen Weimar confirmed on Saturday the building on Burnley St in Richmond was locked down.

He said all residents in the block’s 23 apartments were told to isolate for two weeks.

“This is a significant challenge for anybody to face when Covid comes knocking at your next door apartment,” Mr Weimar said.

Yes VicDHHS is being very strict with any cases in apartment complexes now and also in the last outbreak.

One case and anyone in the whole complex must do 14 day quarartine.

Victorian health authorities have now locked down the seven-storey Isola apartment building in Burnley Street, Richmond after a resident tested positive.​

​

Those living in one of the 23 apartments in the building are expected to quarantine for 14 days.​

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The latest two Victorian Outbreaks (Removalist Outbreak and Returning Family Outbreak) so far as per dBRaeven.

In the last two outbreaks Case 5 was central. This time it is 60s Man from the Ariele Apartments.

Notable in the Removalist Outbreak:

• Is how rapid the generations are
• Is the degree of spread at the MCG (mainly an outdoor venue)from in the main quite brief or fleeting contacts.

In addition from dBRaeven:
VIC onwards transmission - 17th July 2021

Cases - Subsequent transmissions (each)
32 ► 0
5 ► +1
1 ► +2
2 ► +4
1 ► +6
1 ► +7
1 ► +10

Only 26% of cases have transmitted to others
53% of cases come from 3 individuals (So 7% of cases have generated 53% of cases)

 

[Lynda2475]

One case and anyone in the whole complex must do 14 day quarartine

Sounds like overkill, feel sorry for anyone living in an apartment in Victoria.

Unless you have been in a common area at the same time without a mask, should be no need to imprison every resident.

Remove the positive to a health hotel if necessary, but release everyone else once they test negative.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The latest two Victorian Outbreaks (Removalist Outbreak and Returning Family Outbreak) so far as per dBRaeven.

In the last two outbreaks Case 5 was central. This time it is 60s Man from the Ariele Apartments.

Notable in the Removalist Outbreak:

• Is how rapid the generations are
• Is the degree of spread at the MCG (mainly an outdoor venue)from in the main quite brief or fleeting contacts.

View attachment 253324

I was wondering when fleeting transmission was "confirmed" how we would be expected to contract trace transmission that might have occurred just walking along a street - because all our contact tracing was predicated on venues. In this case fortunately a big event has brought a place of commonality. Hopefully no one in the area who didn't attend the MCG game and was walking by or walking through for some other purpose (eg exercise, going to work elsewhere etc) gets infected.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sounds like overkill,

Disagree.

It sound most wise to me.

• We have already seen spread in apartment complexes in the last outbreak,
• and also in this one at Ariele Apartments some residents have tested positive later. Test and release would have had them spreading the virus.

feel sorry for anyone living in an apartment in Victoria.

It is what it is.

Unless you have been in a common area at the same time without a mask, should be no need to imprison every resident.

Disagree, as past analysis has identified transmission, but the path is unknown

Remove the positive to a health hotel if necessary,

This will most likely have been done as was done at Ariele Apartments

but release everyone else once they test negative.

Disagree.

With a strain that can create new generations within 48 hours that could be a disaster. Other residents could easily have been infected, but not yet positive. And at Ariele Apartments that would have already allowed 2 infectious residents out in the the wild.

Tier 1 settings are being used much more widely in this outbreak due this strain being more transmissible. If someone is deemed reasonably likely to have been exposed it is 14 day quarantine regardless of test results.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

There has been a lot of aspects of Delta that make the whole quashing COVID a complex task.

I'm probably incomplete, but it does include:
- fleeting transmission
- outdoor transmission
- infectious within 24-hours
- variability (in its fleeting aspect and when symptoms and infectiousness becomes apparent, some are delayed ie test negative initially and test positive later)
- and probably as a function of the above 3, a higher % of households infected.

I saw a reference on AFF threads today/last night to someone noticing a Delta plus - g** help us!!!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

For those looking for the updated Greater Sydney restrictions announced today that commence at midnight tonight, I happened to find them here:

Restrictions to further limit the spread of the COVID-19 Delta strain

Given the number of infectious cases in the community, the following changes will be made to further limit the spread of the COVID-19 Delta strain.

www.nsw.gov.au

Full text

Restrictions to further limit the spread of the COVID-19 Delta strain​

Given the number of infectious cases in the community, the following changes will be made to further limit the spread of the COVID-19 Delta strain.

On the basis of updated health advice, the following changes come into effect across Greater Sydney including the Central Coast, Blue Mountains, Wollongong and Shellharbour until 11.59pm on Friday, 30 July:

From 11.59pm on Saturday, 17 July:

• Retail premises will be required to close (‘click and collect’, takeaway and home delivery can still operate), except the following can remain open:
  • Supermarkets and grocery stores (including butchers, bakeries, fruit and vegetable stores, liquor stores and fishmongers);
  • Stores that predominantly sell health, medical, maternity and infant supplies;
  • Pharmacies and chemists;
  • Petrol stations;
  • Car hire;
  • Banks and financial institutions;
  • Hardware, nurseries and building supplies;
  • Agricultural and rural supplies;
  • Pet supplies;
  • Post offices and newsagents; and
  • Office supplies.
• In addition to the stay-at-home rules, residents of Fairfield, Canterbury-Bankstown and Liverpool LGAs cannot leave their LGA for work except for emergency services and healthcare workers (including aged and disability workers). Where those workers do need to leave their LGA for work, they are required to be tested every three days, even if they do not have symptoms;
• Anyone who leaves the home must have a mask with them at all times. They must be worn when you are working outdoors, in outdoor markets, outdoor shopping strips, and in an outdoor queues waiting for products such as coffee and food; and
• All carpooling to be stopped unless among members of the same household.

From 12.01am on Monday, 19 July:

• All construction to be paused; and
• Non-urgent maintenance, including cleaning services, and repair work on residential premises to be paused.

From 12.01am on Wednesday, 21 July:

• Employers must allow employees to work from home if the employee is able to do so, failure to do so can result in a fine of up to $10,000.

We are constantly reviewing the health advice and will continue to update the community if any changes are required.

All other restrictions currently in place across Greater Sydney including the Central Coast, Blue Mountains, Wollongong and Shellharbour will remain in place.

These decisions have not been made lightly and we understand this is a difficult time for the community and appreciate their ongoing patience.

It is vital people continue to come forward for testing to help us find any COVID-19 cases in the community.

Restrictions in regional NSW remain unchanged.

 

[Lynda2475]

Disagree

Of course you do, and probably also dont live in an apartment.

Unless there is proven interaction or exposure there is zero justification to lock someone down for 14 days. It is inflicting unecessary harm.

Only close contacts and those sharing a home (not a building) with a close contact should be in iso. The other residents are casual contacts and should be treated as such unless they shared a lift or something (in which case would be a close contact).

some are delayed ie test negative initially and test positive later

This is not a new thing. See it in HQ all the time, an arrival tests negative on day 1 but then positive on the day 5 tests - that is why close contacts have to iso for 14 days.

 

[I love to travel]

If ever there was a case of "Name & Shame" then this is it.

If anyone contracts CV along their route then I'm sure a class action lawyer will willing take on the civil case to sue them.

The State Govt needs to make a clear example of these Covidiots, and the sooner the better otherwise the flood gates will open.

I don't usually swear but f#### idiots who should be jailed. How dare they....

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just a short high level look at Sydney's figures in the current outbreak

Total: 1138 local cases
Confirmed as fully isolating while infectious: 530 (46.6%)
Under investigation as to source: 138 (12.1%)
Mystery unlinked case: 1

Note: the above doesn't mean that there are 138 cases with an unknown isolation status while infectious -it appears this is one of the first questions that is sought to be determined in the contact tracing interviews. (eg in today's report 3 cases were unknown as to their isolation status, while 52 cases were under investigation as to source).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Disagree.

It sound most wise to me.

• We have already seen spread in apartment complexes in the last outbreak,
• and also in this one at Ariele Apartments some residents have tested positive later. Test and release would have had them spreading the virus.

It is what it is.


Disagree, as past analysis as identified transmission, but the path is unknown



This will most likely have been done as was done at Ariele Apartments


Disagree.

With a strain that can create new generations within 48 hours that could be a disaster. Other residents could easily have been infected, but not yet positive. And at Ariele Apartments that would have already allowed 2 infectious residents out in the the wild.

Tier 1 settings are being used much more widely in this outbreak due this strain being more transmissible. If someone is deemed reasonably likely to have been exposed it is 14 day quarantine regardless of test results.

With the apartment 'blockade', its really sad.

Delta's characteristics effectively turns casual contacts into quasi-close contacts.

Victorian authorities has not made that big a leap considering what has happened before now.

I believe NSW authorities has put in a mask requirement for common areas of apartments. NSW authorities has also put as mask requirement/recommendation for outdoors, in particular when there is a risk of inability to socially distance as well. - see my post 23176

• Anyone who leaves the home must have a mask with them at all times. They must be worn when you are working outdoors, in outdoor markets, outdoor shopping strips, and in an outdoor queues waiting for products such as coffee and food; and

And of course NSW authorities put their own 'blockade' on an apartment block once there was confirmed transmission within the apartment block despite I think the original positive being relocated to a health facility and the apartment residents being regarded initially as casual contacts

 

[Lynda2475]

And of course NSW authorities put their own 'blockade' on an apartment block once there was confirmed transmission within the apartment block despite I think the original positive being relocated to a health facility

The difference being that those people had been socialising and in each others apartments. Which is different to living in same complex and having no interaction.

The mask mandate is not a huge burden. However no fresh air for 14 days because a neighbour you may have never met or been anywhere near is draconian.

 

[SydneySwan]

They used to give rolling accounts but were pilloried for the confusion, so went back to once a day. It wouldn't matter what time of day there would still be complaints. Does it make a difference, really? The key message again today was that the numbers were driven by infections 3-5 days ago.

It would make a difference - there would be less chance of leaks. Tok Tok Man could return to his day job.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It would make a difference - there would be less chance of leaks. Tok Tok Man could return to his day job.

Tik Tok man is wondering what day job - he's probably in lockdown given reportedly half of Australia by population is in lockdown lol

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The difference being that those people had been socialising and in each others apartments. Which is different to living in same complex and having no interaction.

The mask mandate is not a huge burden. However no fresh air for 14 days because a neighbour you may have never met or been anywhere near is draconian.

If I saw correctly, both apartment blocks in lockdown have balconies.

 

[drron]

Way too much pessimism with some of the experts.It seems if you are just a little optimistic the MSM doesn't want to hear you.
Over on Twitter 2 fellows whose day time job is looking after viral infections, Peter Collignon and Greg Dore, are cautiously optimistic as it is the 6th day that Sydney has not kept up exponential growth but appears it might be plateauing.
Overseas the exponential growth goes on for a lot longer.

 

[nutwood]

Way too much pessimism with some of the experts.It seems if you are just a little optimistic the MSM doesn't want to hear you.
Over on Twitter 2 fellows whose day time job is looking after viral infections, Peter Collignon and Greg Dore, are cautiously optimistic as it is the 6th day that Sydney has not kept up exponential growth but appears it might be plateauing.
Overseas the exponential growth goes on for a lot longer.

Way too much politics with all of the people making decisions!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Unless there is proven interaction or exposure there is zero justification to lock someone down for 14 days.

See your last point on HQ (Remember that in HQ people have been catching the virus off people who flew in on different days)

Only close contacts and those sharing a home (not a building) with a close contact should be in iso. The other residents are casual contacts and should be treated as such unless they shared a lift or something (in which case would be a close contact).

Err... your next point actually contradicts your above points (Though you are wrong above, as there are ample cases of genomically linked cases in apartment buildings with no known transmission path. So fortunately our CHO disagrees with you)

This is not a new thing. See it in HQ all the time, an arrival tests negative on day 1 but then positive on the day 5 tests - that is why close contacts have to iso for 14 days.

Err.....why is it then safe to have someone in apartment building with a known positive case be released after 1 negative test?




I know you said in the last Melbourne Outbreak that the virus strains were not more transmissible, that Sutton was making up "fleeting" and "Stranger to stranger" transmission, but it is time to accept that the more recent strains we now have in Australia are indeed highly transmissible and that as a result more stringent protocols are required. Well at least if you want to end the transmission chains, they are.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The difference being that those people had been socialising and in each others apartments. Which is different to living in same complex and having no interaction.

You seem to have a very selective memory.

In the last Melbourne Outbreak there were multiple cases in the Southbank Cluster Apartment complex with no known transmission paths between the people in the various apartments. People kept turning positive after being locked down. To after having had the first case emerge to have released all the other residents after a negative test would have cased the transmission chains to keep growing.


. Which is a key reason why it was locked down for 14 days, and all other apartment complexes in Victoria since have also been locked down.

 

[bcworld]

Tik tok: 105 cases tomorrow