But that's the challenge with Delta.
We've seen a couple of Qld cases and the NSW BBQ man case where Delta hasn't spread.
But equally the NSW and Vic cases show once seeded it can spread very quickly .
Yes it is a balancing act.
Though lets us look at the timeline for this
dual outbreak and quickly review the recent Delta History in Victoria in terms of when may have been an appropriate time to have to have announced a lockdown..
The current Delta Outbreak started with the Returning Family who were actually the first cases (12th July)and not the Removalists Apartment Cases.
- Returning family in quarantine (Or at least they were meant to have been).
- Positive Removalists know very late on the 11th to have visited Victoria.
- Also with the (Removalists) apartment cases the family delivered to were tested negative earlier, and stayed negative.
- First apartment case was on 13th, and then a surge reported on the 15th, though some cases were known during the 14th The 60s Man was found to be a positive case on this second period and his exposures not known till the 15th. That plus it was then known on that day that exposure sites and cases now included the Bacchus Marsh Grammar School and the Barwon Heads Primary School, in addition to the three cases at the MCG.
So given that timeline and the recent Delta Incursion History (see paragraphs below) my view is:
- Lockdown on the evening of the 11th = no
- Lockdown on the 12th = no as the returning family were thought to be in quarantine (they were meant to have been)
- Lockdown on the 13th = Unlikely as only one case then linked to the removalists. The clients had tested negative.
- Lockdown on the 14th =This to me is really the first day that I think it is reasonable to have possibly jumped to lockdown. Though all the initial interviews and other case were not known till the 15th which is when lockdown was announced.
- Lockdown on the 15th. During the 15th it became known that new case had had multiple exposures, and also that the family in quarantine had breached quarantine. So two different clusters with multiple transmission paths out beyond the cases in quarantine.
Others may think lockdown should have been earlier, but personally I do not believe the data would just having gone any earlier than a day earlier at most.
Plus if Victoria had gone into lockdown at every Delta incursion, the total period in lockdown would be more than the the likely two-ish weeks this time.
DELTA HISTORY IN VICTORIA
Victoria has had a number of Delta incursions including:
- The Drycleaner did infect one other person in Victoria - No lockdown
- Virgin Flight Attendant infected multiple other people outside of Victoria - No lockdown despite many passengers and also exposure sites at the hotel
- Removalists - First transmission (3 cases) was not known till 14th July ( (The family delivered to has tested negative on the12th)
- Returning Family - 3 house members all test positive - However all were in quarantine (though later one was found to have snuck out to shop and infected a person.
WEST MELBOURNE FAMILY OUTBREAK (linked to a person HQ, though unknown if leak was in HQ or in the arrival/transport phase).
This fortunately occurred while a lockdown was current. In addition the first case found by tested was not the first case found.
The main restrictions (ie the 5 reasons to leave home)
finished on 10th June despite the last Delta Case only testing positive on 8th June
DRYCLEANER
* June 20 - Man returns to Melbourne by plane. (June 19 - A Victorian man attends a party at his daughter's home in West Hoxton, Sydney. The party is later declared a super-spreader event, with 24 of the 30 attendees and many of their household contacts testing positive for COVID-19).
* June 24 - Man tests positive for COVID-19. The owner of the dry cleaning business also tests positive.
VIRGIN FLIGHT: No Vic infections,
* June 25 - A Sydney-based Virgin Australia cabin crew member works on multiple services while potentially infectious, stays overnight in Melbourne.
* June 26 - Crew member leaves Melbourne for Sydney, tests positive for COVID-19.
The Flight Attendant however infected other people on a flight and in Qld.
In Victoria the FA's movements were quite limited.
REMOVALISTS - -July 12
"I'm afraid we do have to report two separate further incursions of COVID from NSW, and will provide initial," Mr Weimar said.
The first of the cases was a removalist mentioned by Health Minister Martin Foley this morning.
"The information we have at this point in time is a removalist crew of three individuals arrived in Melbourne on July 8, from Sydney," Mr Weimar said.
The team delivered furniture to Whittlesea and collected from Maribyrnong before travelling to South Australia and travelled back to NSW.
"One of the members of the crew was contacted by NSW Health on the ninth [of July] when they were in South Australia [and was] identified as a primary close contact of another case," Mr Weimar said.
CITY OF HUME FAMILY OUTBREAK - July 12
Mr Weimar also said there was a "fourth incursion" that had occurred in a family that came from NSW.
"We now have a family of four, who returned from Sydney ... three of those members returned by air on the fourth of July," he said.
"They all tested negative initially.
"Two members of the family became symptomatic and got tested yesterday.
"We received the results late in the morning today, so they are both positive.
"The other two members of the family are being tested again today."
He said the fourth member of the family came to Melbourne on July 8 by car.
The family had permits and were isolating.
Mr Weimar said the family were not a contagious risk while on the flight.
Note another household contacts test positive the next day.
www.theguardian.com
The local production of AstraZeneca in the first half of July was just one-tenth of what the federal government promised it would release to states, doctors, aged care and disability care.
