Not surprised but will this reduce the ongoing Victoria’s lockdown is better than NSWs chatter?
I think the what Delta has demonstrated is that if Delta gains momentum, that you need a lockdown to curtail it in this land of the as yet still mainly unvaccinated.
What Lockdown measures are used also depends on how much mixing is allowed and how quickly one wishes to curtail things, plus different settings for any region may well be best as well for a number of reasons. Dr Chant seemed to be very focused today on reducing mixing today.
And luck also plays a big part.
So each State, including now SA, needs to find the right balance of lockdown restrictions and other measures that works for their circumstances including the spread that they are faced with..
All lockdowns have had different settings, and different settings within the lockdown times period if they go more than a day or so. So there is not a Vic Lockdown and NSW Lockdown, there is just what ever the settings are at a point in time.. NSW has been steadily tightening, and so clearly the first settings were not tight enough. Vic has also has some tightening and in particular on how Tier 1 sites are handled. Overall NSW started lighter than the current Vic settings, but parts of it are now stricter. But there are still many differences. ie Vic has 5km rule, NSW 10km. NSW has now shut construction, Victoria has not.
Plus it is not just lockdown measures that impact, but also what other measures are taken. I am not completely sure but I think Vic is quarantining more lose contacts than NSW Health dose. But NSW Health may well have tightened up on this.
Given the incubation period, 5 days does not get beyond that in Victoria yet and so how effective the lockdown is in Victoria will be more seen over the next week or so.
The second ring (or 3 depending on how you define it) method of quenching transmission chains would have been deployed in Victoria regardless of being in lockdown or not and this has probably been the main factor to date in containing the cases that started from the pre-lockdown transmission chains.
The lockdown would have assisted, but its greater value in my opinion will be in:
- helping to have minimised the growth of any unknown transmission chains, plus situations where people are not doing what they need to be doing, or like the Mildura man who reportedly tested negative and so was allowed to still circulate till settings were tightened for the MCG..
- minimising or preventing new unknown transmission chains from having been seeded in the first place. ie From transmissions as people went about their normal day to day activities.
Roxburgh Park Lady is the first possible unknown transmission chain that has bubbled up in Victoria (ie was not subject any second ring suppression). Apart from her test result, Roxburgh Park was also identified in wastewater testing yesterday.
Victoria's main challenge at present seems to be speed of replication and super spreaders in the 60's Man and someone at Miss Frankies, and possibly the AAMI attendee. without a lockdown such opportunities for the virus to have spread much further than it has would have abounded.
The speed of replication, combined with how little time is now needed for a transmission in many cases, are probably key reasons why any jurisdiction will need lockdown measures if Delta gains a foothold.
