Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

How is this possible now so far into a lock down? They can’t all be essential workers?

We’re also testing at insanely high levels. Chances are all outbreaks have been like this, we’ve just never looked so hard to positively identify cases before.

 

[oznflfan]

At the moment, I just cannot see how the numbers will go down, unless they impose a lockdown China style for a month. That is, completely ring fence an area, test EVERY resident there, and not let anyone to get out (too bad if you happen to be inside the area when they ring fence you). Military provide basic food and health amenities etc.

I just cannot see it happening here though.

They will show compassion though, on fenced guard posts, gun turrets would swap out the full metal jackets for rubber bullets.

 

[Princess Fiona]

We’re also testing at insanely high levels. Chances are all outbreaks have been like this, we’ve just never looked so hard to positively identify cases before.

No they haven’t unfortunately.
The hospitalization, ICU and ventilation rates in NSW are in a much younger cohort.
The last time we had raw numbers in hospital in NSW like this was in April 2020.

 

[Carrots]

Yes and her stand in is a bit weak. There’s been some concerning stories about her in the media so I hope she is ok.

After Prof Sutton she’s the best state CHO we have. Hope she is back firing on all cylinders tomorrow!

Are you suggesting our St Nicola isn't much chop?

 

[drron]

Thedoom and gloom about Sydney is overdone.There were 112 cases 0n July 12th.10 days later that number has not been exceeded.Cases have plateaued.Compare that to the rest of the world where delta outbreaks cause exponential growth in case numbers.The LA county numbers I have previously posted show that even in fully vaccinated cases -over 60% have been fully vaccinated.There cases,hospitalisation and deaths in fully vaccinated patients are all higher than Sydney on a per capita basis.And the fully vaccinated are only ~ 1% of the total numbers of cases.

And again useless comparing to Victoria's second wave.Had that occurred with the delta virus then cases per day and total deaths would have been measured in thousands not hundreds.

 

[sjk]

Thedoom and gloom about Sydney is overdone.

I agree that current numbers are indicative of a reasonably well-controlled outbreak.

The only problem is where the standard has been set, and that it no longer appears achievable.

 

[kpc]

Gladys is fast losing control. Why else would she be so stupid as to give such a guarantee? What is she going to do if cases are 200+ per day by then?

If infectious cases remain high in the community, Gladys cannot let construction restart in 1.5 weeks....if she doesn't continue this strict lockdown or even make it stricter still, we will still be in lockdown leading up to Xmas!

 

[N860CR]

The last time we had raw numbers in hospital in NSW like this was in April 2020.

Which, correct me if I’m wrong, is the last time NSW had any real number of cases?

 

[Princess Fiona]

Which, correct me if I’m wrong, is the last time NSW had any real number of cases?

Correct

 

[N860CR]

Thedoom and gloom about Sydney is overdone.There were 112 cases 0n July 12th.10 days later that number has not been exceeded.Cases have plateaued.Compare that to the rest of the world where delta outbreaks cause exponential growth in case numbers.

Let’s not allow facts to get in the way of a good mass panic

 

[Must...Fly!]

That cases are holding steady having plateaued is good news. However what is worrying is that it is in lockdown conditions. So what steps need to be taken to get the trend heading downwards?

If the recent changes to settings don't result in a material downward trajectory, that is cause for a fair bit of concern, I would've thought.

Edit: If elimination is the goal.

 

[N860CR]

That cases are holding steady having plateaued is good news. However what is worrying is that it is in lockdown conditions. So what steps need to be taken to get the trend heading downwards?

If the recent changes to settings don't result in a material downward trajectory, that is cause for a fair bit of concern, I would've thought.

Edit: If elimination is the goal.

Maybe it’s just not possible. If we’re going to continue testing 80,000 people a day and returning a positivity rate of 0.0014%, perhaps that’s as close to zero as it will go.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Maybe it’s just not possible. If we’re going to continue testing 80,000 people a day and returning a positivity rate of 0.0014%, perhaps that’s as close to zero as it will go.

Maybe it isn't possible. If it isn't then the settings will have to stay (more or less) as they are until vaccination numbers lift to the ~80% mark.

Perhaps it's time to pick up the phone to Uncle Joe Biden, and see if he could flick us a few million doses of Moderna or Pfizer, to be returned in November or so, in time for their quite possible winter season booster campaign...

 

[N860CR]

Maybe it isn't possible. If it isn't then the settings will have to stay (more or less) as they are until vaccination numbers lift to the ~80% mark.

But do we need 80% of the adult population? Realistically, no. Once 80% of the over 50s are vaccinated, then we need to look at seriously relaxing restrictions. The problem is this obsession with “zero cases and zero risk”. We don’t live in a world of zero risk.

 

[Must...Fly!]

But do we need 80% of the adult population? Realistically, no. Once 80% of the over 50s are vaccinated, then we need to look at seriously relaxing restrictions. The problem is this obsession with “zero cases and zero risk”. We don’t live in a world of zero risk.

You are preaching to the choir here in regards to risk management. However it's a skill and concept that isn't well understood in the community in this context, so government will therefore be very conservative in their approach.

 

[chelzmalee]

Reporting from regional NSW Lockdown in Orange:

HUGE lines at testing sites this morning. Town very quiet, I ducked to the supermarket last night before lockdown was announced and it was well stocked and pretty quiet. Reports that supermarkets were overrun around 7pm.

A few of our staff members are currently in isolation, so it'll be a tense few days before we find out exactly how far it spread - or if it has.

 

[drron]

Getting to zero isn't possible for at least this year and next.Beyond that it depends on how the virus mutates.
So going back to the LA County outbreak which is mainly the delta strain but not exclusively.Just under 5 million fully vaccinated- roughly equal to the population of Greater Sydney.The cases starting from June 1st.
Week 1 - 13
2-213
3-195
4-299
5-632
6-1300.
And these were cases in fully vaccinated people the vast majority with an mRNA vaccine.Covid zero is a mythical gaol and will not happen.Past time that we need to be talking about how we open up.

 

[RAM]

Kerry Chant having the day off today. Who can blame her?

Well under the Sydney non-definition of essential workers ..............

After Kerry Chant calling out Gladys' making her the scape goat for the Construction shutdown over each of the previous two days briefings as well as stating the medical advice is not always acted upon - perhaps it is not a 'voluntary absence' but an enforced AL just like reported for many construction workers.

One of the major construction industry news services yesterday morning had a piece with the Master Builders Association pointing the mis-direction by the Premier.

 

[sjk]

Covid zero is a mythical gaol and will not happen

A perfect Freudian slip.

 

[RAM]

Maybe it’s just not possible. If we’re going to continue testing 80,000 people a day and returning a positivity rate of 0.0014%, perhaps that’s as close to zero as it will go.

Not sure about your numbers.

1% of 80,000 = 800
0.1% = 80

110 cases = 0.14%

Current unlinked (mystery) cases are approx 1/3rd of total cases testing +ve for the last week, or 305 plus another 2 formally given up on trying to trace.