Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

Are you suggesting our St Nicola isn't much chop?

Not very well regarded in our medical circles, but is rated above Dr Young if that makes you feel any better. Sutton and Chant are leagues above the rest of them.

 

[bcworld]

And these were cases in fully vaccinated people the vast majority with an mRNA vaccine.Covid zero is a mythical gaol and will not happen.Past time that we need to be talking about how we open up.

I'm still yet to hear anything about what this looks like.

A few weeks ago Singapore was being heralded as moving into 'living with COVID' phase. Not caring about case numbers anymore and only hospitalisations and serious illness. Now Singapore is back in lockdown due to case numbers.

The UK's version of living with COVID appears to be 'let it rip' - but I'm not sure if there is another version of 'living with covid' for delta?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Not sure about your numbers.

1% of 80,000 = 800
0.1% = 80

110 cases = 0.14%

Current unlinked (mystery) cases are approx 1/3rd of total cases testing +ve for the last week, or 305 plus another 2 formally given up on trying to trace.

Yes today's positivity rate is about 0.14%

For the past 7 days its been:

14-Jul​	0.148​
15-Jul​	0.111​
16-Jul​	0.125​
17-Jul​	0.135​
18-Jul​	0.157​
19-Jul​	0.129​
20-Jul​	0.124​
21-Jul​	0.132​

Given the surveillance testing happening the past few days with Fairfield LGA in particular, one would expect the number of "confirmed" mystery cases to increase from the current 2.

 

[Must...Fly!]

as well as stating the medical advice is not always acted upon

Does anyone see a problem with this?

I'm sick of politicians hiding behind "the medical advice says X so we must do X"

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Believe it or not......Another three removalists from Greater Sydney tried to sneak into Victoria via Mildura yesterday!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Does anyone see a problem with this?

I'm sick of politicians hiding behind "the medical advice says X so we must do X"

More like the medical advice is X, NSW chose to do Y and then backflipped to Z...but I digress....

Edit: and I also recall a moment the Victorian CHO was a bit squirmy when asked during Victoria's 2020 wave.

 

[drron]

The medical advice should be made public.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The medical advice should be made public.

One of the key issues is that it rarely is. But more to the point, that the advice comes from government appointed administrators who are ultimately not electorally accountable. The government then hides behind the advice given by their own appointees, often without releasing it, to escape accountability.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

The medical advice should be made public.

I think in a sense it has been made public. Dr Chant has said numerous times that we "need to reduce mobility". It is clear, however, that interpretation of this advice has been left to "whole of government" (i.e. not strictly based on health advice). Restrictions haven't been tightened, and thus we have seen the number of people infectious in the community continue to rise. I think what would be more interesting than the health advice, is the business/economic advice that the Premier is receiving and how she is balancing such interests against the health advice.

 

[bcworld]

The medical advice should be made public.

I wonder if any country / state actually does this? And in what form.

In the absolute depths of Vic 2nd wave the Vic gov did publish very detailed modelling to support the eventual roadmap out. I can't find it now, but essentially scenarios that described what level of cases should be used in moving to the next stage of relaxing restrictions...and if a different number was used the probability that it would take off again.

There would not have been any release of the original justification for entering lockdown though.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think in a sense it has been made public. Dr Chant has said numerous times that we "need to reduce mobility". It is clear, however, that interpretation of this advice has been left to "whole of government" (i.e. not strictly based on health advice). Restrictions haven't been tightened, and thus we have seen the number of people infectious in the community continue to rise. I think what would be more interesting than the health advice, is the business/economic advice that the Premier is receiving and how she is balancing such interests against the health advice.

Well it seems the NSW authorities’ position is that restrictions have tightened (eg “toughest lockdown NSW has had”), it’s just that it’s not yet reflected in the numbers. Hopefully on Friday there might be some (signs of) material change in trend.

 

[oz_mark]

I wonder if any country / state actually does this? And in what form.

In the absolute depths of Vic 2nd wave the Vic gov did publish very detailed modelling to support the eventual roadmap out. I can't find it now, but essentially scenarios that described what level of cases should be used in moving to the next stage of relaxing restrictions...and if a different number was used the probability that it would take off again.

There would not have been any release of the original justification for entering lockdown though.

WA started publishing a lot (but not all) of the advice last year. COVID-19 Coronavirus: Chief Health Officer advice

 

[Pushka]

Five more in SA. We are stuffed.

 

[jase05]

Five more in SA. We are stuffed.

Six

 

[bcworld]

Interesting quote from the premier.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417743064752279552

 

[Pushka]

Six

That's the annoying thing about Facebook videos, you have to rely on the comments to find out what has happened. So 5 associated with the winery and one other. Two super spreader events. Wonderful.

 

[jase05]

That's the annoying thing about Facebook videos, you have to rely on the comments to find out what has happened. So 5 associated with the winery and one other. Two super spreader events. Wonderful.

The winery is about 5 minutes away from my place and very popular. Have spent plenty of Sunday arvos there over time.
Nicola is expecting more cases but seemed quite calm so hopefully they are ahead of it at this stage

 

[Carrots]

Interesting comment now from Mr Marshall. This morning he was suggesting they may have "nipped this in the bud"....

 

[Pushka]

Interesting comment now from Mr Marshall. This morning he was suggesting they may have "nipped this in the bud"....

Yeah well nah

The winery is about 5 minutes away from my place and very popular. Have spent plenty of Sunday arvos there over time.
Nicola is expecting more cases but seemed quite calm so hopefully they are ahead of it at this stage

Maybe because she's back in control now? All of the cases are linked but we will be having another 14 days lockdown, nothing surer.

 

[RAM]

The medical advice should be made public.

Agreed, the previous two days saw Kerry Chant finally break the veil of secrecy & refute that the medical advice is/was always being followed.

Michael West Media has sent emails, put in FOI/GIPA requests in an attempt to get it made public (even with hesitation) & been fobbed off/denied.

Perhaps NSW based AFFers could start asking their State & Federal MPs for it to be made public? Then self-interest may see a change.

A little while back MWM posted a good wrap of it, including where Gladys let slip who's advice she gets. Seems there are three sources other than 'following medical advice'. For some reason though only "following medical advice" gets mentioned.

Not that we're in a race or anything.

Who's Gladys taking public health advice from? Medical or Business?​

Or for straight from the Premier, at 1m 27 seconds in the video.

The Business of Covid: Gladys Berejiklian hides "the health advice" as pandemic threatens Sydney - Michael West

Despite claims she acted on health advice, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian conceded advice from business was key her handling of the pandemic

www.michaelwest.com.au