Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[OATEK]

I’ve noticed Lynda has been absent from this thread. I genuinely hope she/ they’re going ok.

Hop over to the vaccination threads.

 

[SydneySwan]

Well, maybe it is time for Gladys to say international arrivals into Sydney is for NSW residents only?
After all, Queensland hospitals are for Queenslanders only; No we are not giving any of our Pfizer to NSW etc etc
I think you get my drift..... I am, you are, We are Austrailians!!

If NSW enacted this policy then it would have prevented the last outbreak and lockdown in SA. Actually it may suit some state governments as it would minimise their risk of importing Delta from their overseas returnees via Sydney. Of course those states would no doubt be publicly indignant but hypocrisy has been thick on the ground in the pandemic. A step closer to 8 countries and we were once Australians.

 

[bcworld]

Bit of a bump up in testing which is good.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420513060842733571

 

[hydrabyss]

I'm afraid I find it hard to be as generous as you JT

It's not too late to at least listen to the 'shoulda coulda woulda'... but both the government and population seem to be steadfastly digging in to ignore the precedent in other states.

The NSW model isn't working. If you keep creating your own problem, how long is the sympathy extended?

Looking at the lockdown in Sydney I don't see anything that stands out as being different than other states lockdowns. Curfews according to Brett Sutton was not his call so not based on health advice.

Delta spreads faster and Sydney has less cases than Melbourne had last year for the same time period.

NSW did not lockdown the regional areas and so far has not seen any outbreaks so what is in place must be working considering the outer metro areas are mostly covid free.

I agree if NSW locked down earlier we would have a different result but people breaking rules is hard to manage without punishing those doing the right thing even more.

 

[nutwood]

Yes. This is the end result. As everybody knows (but admittedly many refuse to accept), this virus will spread to every corner of the world, including the hermit nation of Australia.

It's an established principle that a good attack will beat a good defense. We can only attack Covid by eliminating it from Australia and then we're back into a defensive position, awaiting the next incursion.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I'm afraid I find it hard to be as generous as you JT

It's not too late to at least listen to the 'shoulda coulda woulda'... but both the government and population seem to be steadfastly digging in to ignore the precedent in other states.

The NSW model isn't working. If you keep creating your own problem, how long is the sympathy extended?

Well it would be more productive to offer some concrete examples instead of labels like lockdown-lite and tarring the whole Sydney/NSW population.

The only two or three concrete examples or suggestions that have been ‘rejected’ by NSW authorities are:
- curfew (last I heard either Vic Premier or no one asked for it , so arguably not derived from health advice)
- ring of steel (Vic Police did not support it; also not clearly derived from health advice)
- exercise distance: 10km v 5km v 2.5km and time allowed out for exercise (I think health advice is there must be exercise for mental health reasons; still no evidence covid spreading through exercise - though admittedly Delta might pull another surprise)

Post automatically merged: Jul 29, 2021

Bit of a bump up in testing which is good.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420513060842733571

So one Vic case went near and far presumably.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Looking at the lockdown in Sydney I don't see anything that stands out as being different than other states lockdowns. Curfews according to Brett Sutton was not his call so not based on health advice.

Delta spreads faster and Sydney has less cases than Melbourne had last year for the same time period.

NSW did not lockdown the regional areas and so far has not seen any outbreaks so what is in place must be working considering the outer metro areas are mostly covid free.

I agree if NSW locked down earlier we would have a different result but people breaking rules is hard to manage without punishing those doing the right thing even more.

I don't hold much comfort that Sydney has less cases than Melbourne - the Australian experience is that Delta is faster/more transmissible, and gives serious disease more often to the young.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Well it would be more productive to offer some concrete examples instead of labels like lockdown-lite and tarring the whole Sydney/NSW population.

The only two or three concrete examples or suggestions that have been ‘rejected’ by NSW authorities are:
- curfew (last I heard either Vic Premier or no one asked for it , so arguably not derived from health advice)
- ring of steel (Vic Police did not support it; also not clearly derived from health advice)
- exercise distance: 10km v 5km v 2.5km and time allowed out for exercise (I think health advice is there must be exercise for mental health reasons; still no evidence covid spreading through exercise - though admittedly Delta might pull another surprise)

Post automatically merged: Jul 29, 2021

So one Vic case went near and far presumably.

I agree - although the examples had been offered in multiple posts upthread.

perhaps it's the 'splitting hairs' and mucking around that is part of the problem? Ok, so maybe the curfew wasn't on health grounds... but it made the enforcement of the lockdown easier for police. It also sent a strong message to the public that 'this is serious'. Ring of steel the same.

10km vs 5 km... IMO the lower limit emphasises 'this is serious'. We had people in Melbourne travelling 20-50km to do exercise, using it as an excuse to get out of their home and have a fun day. Or going to the beach. The 5km limit was like 'no - you can't do that'.

Instead of wasting time debating 10km vs 5... it might have meant the difference between being in and out of lockdown by now?

 

[bcworld]

So one Vic case went near and far presumably.

Not sure. There seems to be quite a bit of chatter this morning about potential other exposures. A level crossing removal site shut down (potentially the same traffic controller?), another apartment block lockdown. But it's just chatter so not worth speculating on until there is more info.

Post automatically merged: Jul 29, 2021

The only two or three concrete examples or suggestions that have been ‘rejected’ by NSW authorities are:
- curfew (last I heard either Vic Premier or no one asked for it , so arguably not derived from health advice)
- ring of steel (Vic Police did not support it; also not clearly derived from health advice)
- exercise distance: 10km v 5km v 2.5km and time allowed out for exercise (I think health advice is there must be exercise for mental health reasons; still no evidence covid spreading through exercise - though admittedly Delta might pull another surprise)

There is health advice...and then there is enforcement of the health advice.

Increasing enforcement was talked about quite a lot in the NSW press conference yesterday.

 

[Seat0B]

If NSW enacted this policy then it would have prevented the last outbreak and lockdown in SA. Actually it may suit some state governments as it would minimise their risk of importing Delta from their overseas returnees via Sydney. Of course those states would no doubt be publicly indignant but hypocrisy has been thick on the ground in the pandemic. A step closer to 8 countries and we were once Australians.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Looking at the lockdown in Sydney I don't see anything that stands out as being different than other states lockdowns.

Which lockdown restrictions are you comparing it to though? And which period of an outbreak?

The Stage 4 restrictions used at the height of the Vic Second Wave in Greater Melbourne were much harsher than the recent set of restrictions used in the most recent lockdown in Victoria. Stage-4 was ramped up to after earlier sets of restrictions were shown to not be halting rate of spread. In Victoria those harsh set of restrictions have not yet been used in full again. Some measures such as mask-wearing are now deployed much more rapidly though as it simply a measure that really does not impede people much at all.

And yes there is no one magic bullet, and it really is impossible to know the effect of any one particular measure.

Curfews according to Brett Sutton was not his call so not based on health advice.

I think you will find that they were in large part the recommendation of Prof Allen Cheng, so yes there were based on health advice. Cheng was very strong on minimising mixing. Though the curfew also just makes it much easier for the police to enforce the rules, and moreso at a time when the police themselves were often becoming cases themselves.

On Cheng’s first day at work on July 23 last year, more than 400 cases of coronavirus were reported in Victoria. Contact tracers had no hope of reaching the huge numbers of people that were testing positive and cases were rising exponentially.​

​

Cheng soon realised that even if they made improvements to the contact tracing system, it would crumble if the numbers kept climbing. (My comment: the relevance now is that with Delta jumping from person to person in as little as 36 hours that contact tracing is now a much more difficult task than it was with Alpha).​

​

“That wasn’t such a difficult decision. When things are bad and getting worse, we need to do something pretty drastic to get these numbers down, to make things work again.”​

​

Melbourne’s tough stage-four restrictions shortly followed, drafted in part by Cheng. A controversial 8pm night-time curfew was imposed and people were prohibited from going more than five kilometres from their home to exercise. Across the city there was the dispiriting sight of playgrounds cordoned off with tape.​

​

“You agonise over it, is it really worth it?” he says.​

​

“When I first talked to the premiere, I probably had to move to a stage 4 limit, or something more than he said.” It’s a $ 1 billion decision a week, you really are about it. Are you sure? “Professor Cheng said.​

​

“I said, ’I’m going to go away and think a little more.’ I’m very aware that they are a very difficult decision and will affect 6.6 million people. “​

​

​

The war against Covid remains a moving feast. Covid itself is evolving and circumstances always very. It is up to the NSW Gov and NSW Health to decide its own set of restrictions and how quick or slow it wants things to be. Though in large part at present, it is up tp the NSW population now in how they follow those restrictions, and how willing they are to get vaccinated with AZ (and all of Australia needs to embrace AZ more).

One thing we do now know is that Covid is most probably going to be around permanently (endemic) and just living in bubbles like we all have been doing in Australia is not sustainable and moreso now with the advent of Delta. And most likely the virus will only keep evolving making the bubbles just even more likely to burst.

 

[jase05]

From a work colleagues partner who works at CQV

A La trobe street apartment complex is being locked down for 2 weeks. DHHS and CQV setting up site now.
Two female positive cases at a the complex have barricaded themselves in their room and refusing CQV transportation.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think you will find that they were in large part the recommendation of Prof Allen Cheng, so yes there were based on health advice. Cheng was very strong on minimising mixing. Though the curfew also just makes it much easier for the police to enforce the rules, and moreso at a time when the police themselves were often becoming cases themselves.

None of what you quoted supports the assertion that Cheng recommended the curfew.

Post automatically merged: Jul 29, 2021

From a work colleagues partner who works at CQV

A La trobe street apartment complex is being locked down for 2 weeks. DHHS and CQV setting up site now.
Two female positive cases at a the complex have barricaded themselves in their room and refusing CQV transportation.

Call me whatever you want. Good on them. No one should be forcibly relocated.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From a work colleagues partner who works at CQV

A La trobe street apartment complex is being locked down for 2 weeks. DHHS and CQV setting up site now.
Two female positive cases at a the complex have barricaded themselves in their room and refusing CQV transportation.

Throughout the this current outbreak in Victoria CQV have moved all positive cases (or at least I am pretty sure it is all) in apartment buildings to hotel quarantine as they are worried about other residents becoming infected (ie as in the last stage of the Kappa/Delta outbreak before this one).

 

[Must...Fly!]

Throughout the this current outbreak in Victoria CQV have moved all positive cases (or at least I am pretty sure it is all) in apartment buildings to hotel quarantine as they are worried about other residents becoming infected (ie as in the last stage of the Kappa/Delta outbreak before this one).

Forcibly? I recall the option being offered but that's all.

No one in this country should be forcibly relocated as a result of contracting COVID-19.

 

[bcworld]

Haven't had a case number leak for a while...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420538237383184387

 

[lovetravellingoz]

None of what you quoted supports the assertion that Cheng recommended the curfew.

Nor did I assert that Cheng did. He may or may not have.

I believe the assertion (not mine) was Curfews according to Brett Sutton was not his call so not based on health advice, whereas I was indicating that health advice from was Cheng was an input into the full set of Stage 4 restrictions of which the curfew was a part of. The difference between Stage 4 Second Wave and the more recent lockdown settings in Victoria was not just the curfew.

Governments receive the health advice and then have to work out how that advice can be feasibly put into place. Cheng wanted less mixing and curfews were but one part of achieving that.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Governments receive the health advice and then have to work out how that advice can be feasibly put into place.

Advice should be received, scrutinised, picked apart and then aspects the government believes necessary then implemented. Not simply implementing advice.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Nor did I assert that Cheng did. He may or may not have.

I believe the assertion 9not mine) was Curfews according to Brett Sutton was not his call so not based on health advice, whereas I was indicating that health advice from was Cheng was an input into the full set of Stage 4 restrictions of which the curfew was a part of. The difference between Stage 4 and the more recent lockdown settings in Victoria was not just the curfew.

Governments receive the health advice and then have to work out how that advice can be feasibly put into place. Cheng wanted less mixing and curfews were but one part of achieving that.

I think that's right. The curfew may not have necessarily been direct health advice, but the general advice was to 'do whatever necessary'. Victoria Police wanted rules they could enforce, a curfew was part of that. It's all linked.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Forcibly? I recall the option being offered but that's all.

No one in this country should be forcibly relocated as a result of contracting COVID-19.

I never said forcibly.

I know in one case the residents delayed for a little while before accepting the recommendation to move.


In this case if the two do not move, then I would imagine Plan B would be to offer their neighbours the ability to relocate.

The common sense approach would be to be willing to move to reduce the risk for their neighbours.