Which lockdown restrictions are you comparing it to though? And which period of an outbreak?
The Stage 4 restrictions used at the height of the Vic Second Wave in Greater Melbourne were much harsher than the recent set of restrictions used in the most recent lockdown in Victoria. Stage-4 was ramped up to after earlier sets of restrictions were shown to not be halting rate of spread. In Victoria those harsh set of restrictions have not yet been used in full again. Some measures such as mask-wearing are now deployed much more rapidly though as it simply a measure that really does not impede people much at all.
And yes there is no one magic bullet, and it really is impossible to know the effect of any one particular measure.
I think you will find that they were in large part the recommendation of Prof Allen Cheng, so yes there were based on health advice.
Cheng was very strong on minimising mixing. Though the curfew also just makes it much easier for the police to enforce the rules, and moreso at a time when the police themselves were often becoming cases themselves.
On Cheng’s first day at work on July 23 last year, more than 400 cases of coronavirus were reported in Victoria. Contact tracers had no hope of reaching the huge numbers of people that were testing positive and cases were rising exponentially.
Cheng soon realised that even if they made improvements to the contact tracing system, it would crumble if the numbers kept climbing. (My comment: the relevance now is that with Delta jumping from person to person in as little as 36 hours that contact tracing is now a much more difficult task than it was with Alpha).
“That wasn’t such a difficult decision. When things are bad and getting worse, we need to do something pretty drastic to get these numbers down, to make things work again.”
Melbourne’s tough stage-four restrictions shortly followed, drafted in part by Cheng. A controversial 8pm night-time curfew was imposed and people were prohibited from going more than five kilometres from their home to exercise. Across the city there was the dispiriting sight of playgrounds cordoned off with tape.
“You agonise over it, is it really worth it?” he says.
“When I first talked to the premiere, I probably had to move to a stage 4 limit, or something more than he said.” It’s a $ 1 billion decision a week, you really are about it. Are you sure? “Professor Cheng said.
“I said, ’I’m going to go away and think a little more.’ I’m very aware that they are a very difficult decision and will affect 6.6 million people. “
The war against Covid remains a moving feast. Covid itself is evolving and circumstances always very. It is up to the NSW Gov and NSW Health to decide its own set of restrictions and how quick or slow it wants things to be. Though in large part at present, it is up tp the NSW population now in how they follow those restrictions, and how willing they are to get vaccinated with AZ (and all of Australia needs to embrace AZ more).
One thing we do now know is that Covid is most probably going to be around permanently (endemic) and just living in bubbles like we all have been doing in Australia is not sustainable and moreso now with the advent of Delta. And most likely the virus will only keep evolving making the bubbles just even more likely to burst.