Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

I think the worst if comparing trajectories is the ACT, particularly when you adjust for population.
The 22 the other day would have been the equivalent of 400+ in NSW.

It's not completely valid to do that though, the virus doesn't spread faster in a larger population. Population density would be a factor but Canberra is pretty similar to Sydney in that regard.

 

[nutwood]

It's not completely valid to do that though, the virus doesn't spread faster in a larger population. Population density would be a factor but Canberra is pretty similar to Sydney in that regard.

As with most of the statistical comparisons, several pinches of salt are required. After all, if a town had a population of ten, and five people had Covid, that'd be 50% of the population. If they all caught it down the pub on Friday, that'd be 50% of the population in a day!

 

[kpc]

From the Guardian:

View attachment 255897

I know a lot of my colleagues would be upset about this as they will be losing $$ in income!

 

[bcworld]

Spike tomorrow. Can't read the article but I think its suggesting there is a number from day 13 testing of school contacts in isolation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427955238636453889

 

[justinbrett]

Spike tomorrow. Can't read the article but I think its suggesting there is a number from day 13 testing of school contacts in isolation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427955238636453889

I could read the whole thing, didn't really give a breakdown of cases.

Not unexpected. Starting to look very similar to the Sydney outbreak.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Presumably linked to Al-Taqwa

But a lot of new exposure sites today, from recent days.

The outbreak could go one of two ways in my mind. It either stagnates at 20-30 cases a day in perpetuity, or it grows out of control like Sydney. Can't see it going down.

 

[justinbrett]

The outbreak could go one of two ways in my mind. It either stagnates at 20-30 cases a day in perpetuity, or it grows out of control like Sydney. Can't see it going down.

Almost exactly what Sydney did - hovered at 20-35 for two weeks and then started to grow.

 

[33kft]

Can't read the article but I think its suggesting there is a number from day 13 testing of school contacts in isolation.

I can't copy and paste it but the article says:

• At least 40 cases to 7pm today, many as a result of day 13 testing of Al-Taqwa contacts.
• All school contacts in isolation for their entire infectious period.
• School community has been very co-operative.
• Concerns about a possible homeless cluster. Dept of health preparing in case of outbreak.
• Authorities investigating movements of homeless sex worker who has tested positive. Case centre around St Kilda.

 

[sjk]

the virus doesn't spread faster in a larger population

Uh wut

In Seoul we initially chose groups of roughly 400,000 when dividing the city up for pandemic management purposes, with great effect.

Canberra has the advantage of being roughly the same size and not being (tightly) surrounded by other groups of roughly 400,000.

 

[justinbrett]

Uh wut

In Seoul we initially chose groups of roughly 400,000 when dividing the city up for pandemic management purposes, with great effect.

Canberra has the advantage of being roughly the same size and not being (tightly) surrounded by other groups of roughly 400,000.

If you read my whole post I mentioned population density.

There's obviously other factors, simpler contact tracing etc but the actual growth of the virus is no faster.

 

[OATEK]

I can't copy and paste it but the article says:

• At least 40 cases to 7pm today, many as a result of day 13 testing of Al-Taqwa contacts.
• All school contacts in isolation for their entire infectious period.
• School community has been very co-operative.
• Concerns about a possible homeless cluster. Dept of health preparing in case of outbreak.
• Authorities investigating movements of homeless sex worker who has tested positive. Case centre around St Kilda.

Not going in the right direction, but still within reach of being managed successfully towards (a temporary) zero.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well the NSW Government has finally done their sums and seen the writing on the wall - now presuming a reproductive rate of 1.3 for 11 weeks (70% vaccinated double dose) is not flattening the curve...........

But where else is there to go for NSW I guess is the question apart from to just hang on and desperately vaccinate?

I honestly don’t think imposing even stricter restrictions is going to work in Sydney (or Melbourne either actually to that point).

It is very clear there is civil disobedience occurring in huge numbers now, people are beyond fatigued. It is just going to keep growing unfortunate. Game is up.

This is evidenced by the +400 instances just yesterday in Sydney of people ignoring their isolation orders and being caught. In one day. So there were probably more not isolating who didn’t get caught.

So even if NSW introduces more restrictions I simply think they will be ignored by a substantial number of people anyway which will mean they are not effective anyway and just damage the mental health of everyone else doing the right thing.

This is also not a NSW ‘thing’ because it’s happening everywhere, it’s just highlighted the most in NSW because the outbreak is the largest there. We’ve had parties in Melbourne and pub crawls in Brisbane too.

 

[justinbrett]

But where else is there to go for NSW I guess is the question apart from to just hang on and desperately vaccinate?

I honestly don’t think imposing even stricter restrictions is going to work in Sydney (or Melbourne either actually to that point).

It is very clear there is civil disobedience occurring in huge numbers now, people are beyond fatigued. It is just going to keep growing unfortunate. Game is up.

This is evidenced by the +400 instances just yesterday in Sydney of people ignoring their isolation orders and being caught by police. In one day. So there were probably more not isolating who didn’t get caught.

So even if NSW introduces more restrictions I simply think they will be ignored by a substantial number of people anyway which will mean they are not effective anyway and just damage the mental health of everyone else doing the right thing.

This is also not a NSW ‘thing’ because it’s happening everywhere, it’s just highlighted the most in NSW because the outbreak is the largest there. We’ve had parties in Melbourne and pub crawls in Brisbane too.

We also have to remember the R0 for Delta is at least 5.0. NSW restrictions have got it down to 1.3, which is actually pretty good.

This is not necessarily a failure. I think we've been told a lie that "short, sharp lockdowns" are all you need to crush an outbreak. Yes, people not complying with the law are part of the problem, but they're not solely responsible.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The only lie now is COVID zero. Sad but true. Governments will realise it eventually.

 

[andye]

Well the NSW Government has finally done their sums and seen the writing on the wall - now presuming a reproductive rate of 1.3 for 11 weeks (70% vaccinated double dose) is not flattening the curve...........

It is flattening the curve in the sense it was originally intended

If the curve was not being flattened we could be at 10000 daily cases in less than 2 weeks

In theory, It will take nearly 3 months to get there at current rate, by which time many more can be vaccinated

What many would like is a completely squashed curve which I can't see happening in NSW now

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

But where else is there to go for NSW I guess is the question apart from to just hang on and desperately vaccinate?

I honestly don’t think imposing even stricter restrictions is going to work in Sydney (or Melbourne either actually to that point).

It is very clear there is civil disobedience occurring in huge numbers now, people are beyond fatigued. It is just going to keep growing unfortunate. Game is up.

This is evidenced by the +400 instances just yesterday in Sydney of people ignoring their isolation orders and being caught. In one day. So there were probably more not isolating who didn’t get caught.

So even if NSW introduces more restrictions I simply think they will be ignored by a substantial number of people anyway which will mean they are not effective anyway and just damage the mental health of everyone else doing the right thing.

This is also not a NSW ‘thing’ because it’s happening everywhere, it’s just highlighted the most in NSW because the outbreak is the largest there. We’ve had parties in Melbourne and pub crawls in Brisbane too.

As I said in a previous lead up post to the one you quote, there are probably some who possibly naively think flattening the curve is achieved (going from 5 to 1.3). But as shown by a theoretical graph posted by justinbrett, a theoretical purpose of flattening the curve is to allow healthcare capacity to cope.

Seemingly NSW authorities with the "recall" of some private hospitals are beginning to think 1.3 for 11 weeks (when NSW should achieve 70% fully vaccinated) is too high and breaching that capacity is at risk.

Yes compliance is an issue, but I think a second ball is to clamp down on industry - NSW have to force critical industries to actually stop as much as possible using workers from the LGAs of concern and to seek specific exemptions where there is a clear demonstrated need. It will probably mean standing down half the staff and if that intersects with many staff in LGAs of concern then wouldn't that be a 'good' outcome/progress towards staying within healthcare capacity.

Go to 25% capacity for critical industries. That is something likely to be tangible and meet the NSW 'criteria' of making something more substantial than marginal potentially happen.

That might also help the asymptomatic testing situation which is only Canterbury-Bankstown LGA authorised workers at the moment (plus health and aged care in Fairfield and one other area). Critical workers in Blacktown and coughberland need asymptomatic testing.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It is flattening the curve in the sense it was originally intended

If the curve was not being flattened we could be at 10000 daily cases in less than 2 weeks

In theory, It will take nearly 3 months to get there at current rate, by which time many more can be vaccinated

What many would like is a completely squashed curve which I can't see happening in NSW now

Well maybe two weeks ago - with groundhog day its hard to distinguish, I said on this thread NSW won't see 100 again. Happy to be wrong and it might happen post-80% vaccination but in my estimation certainly not this side of 80%.

The lockdown did a reasonably good job 5 to 1.3, but a potential trajectory to 10,000 cases in an undervaccinated population is in sight now. And I factor in that there is likely to be underreporting of the current reproductivity rate because there hasn't been any asymptomatic testing in the LGAs with the second and third highest daily cases.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Stop aiming for zero COVID-19 cases: CSL boss

Paul Perreault says the virus is not going away any time soon, so we must learn to live with it and encourage vaccinations.

www.afr.com

 

[N860CR]

As I said in a previous lead up post to the one you quote, there are probably some who possibly naively think flattening the curve is achieved (going from 5 to 1.3). But as shown by a theoretical graph posted by justinbrett, a theoretical purpose of flattening the curve is to allow healthcare capacity to cope.

Naive is covid zero, which frighteningly some people seem to continue pushing. The curve has been well and truly flattened. The healthcare system has now had a year and half to prepare.

We have now had I think 3 deaths in 2 months amongst those who were not eligible to be vaccinated. Sorry, but anyone who thinks that is a poor result in a global pandemic is showing a distinct lack of understanding.

 

[moa999]

But where else is there to go for NSW I guess is the question apart from to just hang on and desperately vaccinate?

I honestly don’t think imposing even stricter restrictions is going to work in Sydney (or Melbourne either actually to that point).

I think about the only point NSW can go now is total lockdown in say the Top 6 LGAs for 14-days, to try and bump down the curve to give us a few more months, with everyone in that area required to get a test in the last 7 days.

By total lockdown I mean no-one in that area goes to work - including police, ambulance, etc. Almost all authorised workers. Everything in that area including take-away, cafes and supermarkets is closed. The rest of Sydneys population has to take up the slack in staffing authorised and needed industries.

Very minimal list of exceptions including doctors, chemists, hospitals and some emergency food deliveries.

It breaks the essential worker - family chain that is reportedly the major spread in that area.

Still don't see that getting us anywhere zero, but it may enable a bump in cases back into the hundreds.

But I don't see the government having the willingness to do it, and there's no guarantee you wouldn't have to do the same thing in another 6 wks.