Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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justinbrett said:
What worked last year won't necessarily work this time, Delta is different. Melbourne ignores that at its own peril.
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Why would you think that Delta is being ignored in Melbourne in it being different, or that things are only being done only the same as way as last time?

Some tools are the same, some are different. Just some of the newer measures used this time:
  • The Tier 1 setting is one but one example of the changes due to Delta, in terms of when and where they are deployed and the large numbers of people it has sent into 14 day quarantine.
    • Plus they now need a negative test at the end of their quarantine.
    • 28 day quarantine if they refuse to be tested.
  • Immediate close contacts are rapid tested., they don't wait for PCR, though PCR is done as well, as they know that new infections can start in as little as 30 hours..
  • Positive case are moved from all large apartment settings.
That you disagree with particular settings is all well and good, but it is a false premise that the Vic Authorities are not treating Delta as different.

It is quite amazing how when Sutton first went through what the contact tracers in Vic had discovered about transmission events with the new strains he was ridiculed by some, but now he is supposedly meant to be blind to it.

Transmission from children is more common with Delta and so schools swiftly closed down. Transmission between two children just walking confirmed, and a playground transmission most likely. So playgrounds now closed.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily said:
My understanding is Victorian authorities are still pursuing a de facto covid-zero policy through lockdown 5.0 and 6.0
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There is no doubt this is the case. However as the days roll on with significant numbers of exposure sites of various tiers, I am less convinced that it is anything to do with the reality of science and more a political decision with associated benefits of health outcomes to support it.

I can't possibly believe after the last two months or so that keeping the new strain out of Victoria, or indeed of QLD (particularly South East), is possible for any significant period of time. Lockdowns are buying time to get vaccines in arms (which should have happened months ago even with the mRNA supply issues) but there needs to be a re-calibration of the entire approach to COVID-19 in Australia, and very very quickly.

In Victoria we can't even be sure that the new branches of transmission uncovered every week (or several times a week) aren't new so-called "incursions of the virus from NSW".
 
lovetravellingoz said:
Why would you think that Delta is being ignored in Melbourne in it being different, or that things are only being done only the same as way as last time?

Some tools are the same, some are different. Just some of the newer measures used this time are different in many ways.
  • The Tier 1 setting is one but one example of the changes due to Delta, in terms of when and where they are deployed and the large numbers of people it has sent into 14 day quarantine.
    • Plus they now need a negative test at the end of their quarantine.
    • 28 day quarantine if they refuse to be tested.
  • Immediate close contacts are rapid tested., they don't wait for PCR, though PCR is done as well, as they know that new infections can start in as little as 30 hours..
  • Positive case are moved from all large apartment settings.
That you disagree with particular settings is all well and good, but it is a false premise that the Vic Authorities are not treating Delta as different.

It is quite amazing how when Sutton first went through what the contact tracers in Vic had discovered about transmission events with the new strains he was ridiculed by some, but now he is supposedly meant to be blind to it.

Transmission from children is more common with Delta and so schools swiftly closed down. Transmission between two children just walking confirmed, and a playground transmission most likely. So playgrounds now closed.
Click to expand...

It's an English literary device that means "If Melbourne choses to ignore Delta, it does so at its own peril", it is not a statement of fact. It is a warning.

They seem to think the curfew will be the saviour, despite the police association saying it's just an extra thing for them to enforce and they're already stretched. You've said many times you haven't had problems with fast food etc, but you're basing that off previous outbreaks. Many fingers pointed at NSW for its style of lockdown, and now VIC finds itself in a lockdown with stubborn cases despite an even harsher lockdown. The truth is, Melbourne and Sydney are not that different.
 
HappyFlyerFamily said:
My understanding is Victorian authorities are still pursuing a de facto covid-zero policy through lockdown 5.0 and 6.0
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Well no secret there, as they publicly state it and so it is the policy.

They want zero cases in the community until a high enough vaccination rate is achieved. When that happens, it becomes living with Covid time.
 
justinbrett said:
They seem to think the curfew will be the saviour,
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Who is they?

The curfew is but one small measure and no Vic Official is describing it as the saviour.


To my way of thinking the more important measure announced recently was the one requesting all in St Kilda and Gen Eira to get tested. (symptomatic or not).

Personally I see the curfew as a easy device that inconveniences few.
 
justinbrett said:
They seem to think the curfew will be the saviour, despite the police association saying it's just an extra thing for them to enforce and they're already stretched.
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I have never seen curfew described as or hinted at being a 'saviour'.

It's a part of series of measures. The police can choose the level at which they want to enforce it, but it has the effect that a very large majority of people will not consider going out. Obviously the intent is to reduce at home gatherings. For many these would take place during curfew hours, for others not. While it's an extreme measure, there is currently very little impact for most because, like Sydney, there is nowhere to be or nothing to do after 9PM anyway. I don't discount the psychological impact of it.

I haven't tested the hypothesis yet, but if it's anything like last time, food delivery is still open in curfew hours.
 
lovetravellingoz said:
Who is they?

The curfew is but one small measure and no Vic Official is describing it as the saviour.
Click to expand...

The government.

Dan Andrews said it was a CHO recommendation - how could it possibly be a health recommendation? Wouldn't/Shouldn't that come from police who are responsible for compliance?

I'm also suspicious because Brett Sutton specifically said the curfew was not his recommendation during the second wave, that came from someone else but was described as "health advice".

At this point it's hard to know where the advice is coming from, but overall, it seems like they're prepared to die in a ditch over it.
 
Must...Fly! said:
There is no doubt this is the case. However as the days roll on with significant numbers of exposure sites of various tiers, I am less convinced that it is anything to do with the reality of science and more a political decision with associated benefits of health outcomes to support it.

I can't possibly believe after the last two months or so that keeping the new strain out of Victoria, or indeed of QLD (particularly South East), is possible for any significant period of time. Lockdowns are buying time to get vaccines in arms (which should have happened months ago even with the mRNA supply issues) but there needs to be a re-calibration of the entire approach to COVID-19 in Australia, and very very quickly.

In Victoria we can't even be sure that the new branches of transmission uncovered every week (or several times a week) aren't new so-called "incursions of the virus from NSW".
Click to expand...
Understandable.

From the point of view of someone believing their own hype (which is applicable to both States), Victorian authorities will not believe in (or assume) a further incursion given the current hard border with NSW (which I believe has been in place more than 14 days now).

The one week break from lockdown was probably the undoing of everything but most recently I heard the Victorian Premier still talking about congratulating or being proud of what has been achieved - talk about believing your own hype.

It will be interesting to see how the transition occurs as Victoria approaches 80%.
 
justinbrett said:
The government.

Dan Andrews said it was a CHO recommendation - how could it possibly be a health recommendation? Wouldn't/Shouldn't that come from police who are responsible for compliance?
Click to expand...

Why would police make a health recommendations?


justinbrett said:
I'm also suspicious because Brett Sutton specifically said the curfew was not his recommendation during the second wave, that came from someone else but was described as "health advice".

At this point it's hard to know where the advice is coming from, but overall, it seems like they're prepared to die in a ditch over it.
Click to expand...

Well this time around Sutton made it very clear that the curfew was his advice. As was closing the playgrounds.

​
​
The state’s chief health officer, Prof Brett Sutton, said his advice to tighten the restrictions was “not in response to any single event”.​
​
“We are at the brink and we need to step back from the brink,” he said. “We are maybe just keeping up with this outbreak, but we are not ahead of it in the way that we need to be in order to achieve control.”​
​
Sutton dismissed the suggestion that a 9pm curfew was an unreasonable constraint on people’s freedoms, saying: “The curfew is not the constraint – the stay-at-home direction is the constraint and the curfew supports that.”​
​
.......​
​
​
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He defended the curfew as a difficult but necessary measure to prevent a months-long lockdown if the outbreak worsened.​
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"The evidence around curfews is not dissimilar to evidence around a whole bunch of other interventions," Professor Sutton said.​
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"They are hard to tease apart from the suite of interventions that happen.​
​
"But between stopping small gatherings, stopping large gatherings, density quotients, social distancing and the like, it is one of a suite of interventions that was very successful last year in Victoria and there are published studies on curfews and people are free to look at them."​
​


Someone making a recommendation does not mean that one measure is the saviour. Indeed Sutton has repeatedly stated that it is not any one restriction measure that is important.

Though the one measure that everyone keeps repeating as being vital is if you are symptomatic to go and get tested, and to not be out in the community till you get your negative result back. This of course being what the Al Taqwa teacher and her partner both did not do.
 
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lovetravellingoz said:
Why would police make a health recommendations?
Click to expand...

Because it's not a health measure, it's a compliance measure. That's my whole point.

lovetravellingoz said:
Well this time around Sutton made it very clear that the curfew was his advice.
Click to expand...

Yes, and that makes me very suspicious. CHOs should be focusing on health measures, leave compliance to police. It's a slippery slope when the CHOs are responsible for enforcement measures.
 
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