Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[drron]

You may mean the run on gastro. This was in part thought have been due to hand sanitiser being used instead of soap and water. Hand sanitiser is not not as effective for preventing gastro.

No there were outbreaks of RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus -in several States.More common in Children but I had a confirmed infection at the age of 70.

 

[blackcat20]

And in a similar vein, I read somewhere (now can’t recall where) about some viral illness (can’t recall which one) that was rampant in kids in Vic over summer for the same reasons. As my kids would say, good story mum

The point was that the Vic kids didn’t get whatever it was whilst they were locked down, but it was still endemic in the community, and as soon as they came out, they all got it in a big rush. There was also some commentary about the kids having reduced immunity because of lack of exposure. I’ll search to see if I can find the original news item.

We had no illness while daycare was restricted to permitted workers. Within a week of it being open to all, Miss TomCat got sick. The last two months she has rolled from one illness to another via daycare, and our five month old ended up with bronchiolitis. I’ve now got whatever she had

 

[lovetravellingoz]

No there were outbreaks of RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus -in several States.More common in Children but I had a confirmed infection at the age of 70.

I think it is more that both occurred, plus other things like the common cold.

Probably head lice too!

 

[Lynda2475]

Sounds like there's more to the story there, and Kerry Chant didn't want to elaborate

Definitely. It has been speculated this was suicide.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With the focus transitioning to monitoring adverse health outcomes rather than primarily new cases, this is probably become the more relevant table to monitor.

View attachment 256418

With apparently under 1000 ICU bed capacity and about 2000 ventilators in NSW - I'd regard ICU as a bit of an issue/risk at this stage.

NSW Health's current mystery (confirmed unlinked) cases is 70 [since 16 June] - obviously there will be a lot in the community that will be unidentified with the pause on asymptomatic testing across Greater Sydney.

 

[jrfsp]

With apparently under 1000 ICU bed capacity and about 2000 ventilators in NSW - I'd regard ICU as a bit of an issue/risk at this stage.

NSW Health's current mystery (confirmed unlinked) cases is 70 [since 16 June] - obviously there will be a lot in the community that will be unidentified with the pause on asymptomatic testing across Greater Sydney.

ICU staff will become an issue far sooner than number of ventilators.

 

[justinbrett]

With apparently under 1000 ICU bed capacity and about 2000 ventilators in NSW - I'd regard ICU as a bit of an issue/risk at this stage.

NSW Health's current mystery (confirmed unlinked) cases is 70 [since 16 June] - obviously there will be a lot in the community that will be unidentified with the pause on asymptomatic testing across Greater Sydney.

ICU and ventilator rates are growing slower than the hospitalisation rates, and certainly slower than the case rates (yes yes, I know there's a lag, but cases have been very consistent at 1.3 for a long time).

We will soon start seeing significant benefits of the high vaccination rates - these were very low in the LGAs of concern recently but are now all above 50% first jab and many above 60%.

As mentioned today there is heaps of capacity in the private system and in public hospitals elsewhere in the city, it's just unfortunate these cases are concentrated in one area of the city.

Asymptomatic spread is just an unfortunate consequence of high vaccination, it's going to happen to every state - you won't be able to crush covid because you'll have no idea where it came from. NSW is in transition to the new way of thinking about covid, and we're in for a rough ride in the next 6 weeks but it will be good on the other side.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Indeed, there are also a number of deaths in the current outbreak that could have been avoided if people had sought medical attention when they should have, including one yesterday who was offered Special Health Accommodation and declined.

I haven't heard that news - but I'd suspect SHA wouldn't have prevented a sudden deterioration, even with SHA - hotels with 24/7 care.

Post automatically merged: Aug 25, 2021

ICU and ventilator rates are growing slower than the hospitalisation rates, and certainly slower than the case rates (yes yes, I know there's a lag, but cases have been very consistent at 1.3 for a long time).

We will soon start seeing significant benefits of the high vaccination rates - these were very low in the LGAs of concern recently but are now all above 50% first jab and many above 60%.

As mentioned today there is heaps of capacity in the private system and in public hospitals elsewhere in the city, it's just unfortunate these cases are concentrated in one area of the city.

Asymptomatic spread is just an unfortunate consequence of high vaccination, it's going to happen to every state - you won't be able to crush covid because you'll have no idea where it came from. NSW is in transition to the new way of thinking about covid, and we're in for a rough ride in the next 6 weeks but it will be good on the other side.

The under 1000 ICU capacity is both public and private - I guess its NSW not Sydney. Obviously some being currently used with other conditions and illnesses

 

[Lynda2475]

Not all asymptomatic testing has been paused, Border & Quarantine workers still doing shift testing and many private employers are also still doing their own private testing. A friend of mine works in an LGA of concern, her employer has arranged onsite PCR testing for all staff every Mon, Wed and Fri.

The testing that was paused was additional 72hr surveillance testing for certain workers who were wanting to leave their LGAs of concerns.

If you are asymptomatic and present for testing you will not be turned away.

 

[kamchatsky]

Until most people have their vaccinations, Westmead is now into emergency operations, rather than Business As Usual.

Hospitals are under pressure, not overwhelmed: NSW Health Minister

www.9news.com.au

They did have a new 14-storey Acute Services building commissioned earlier this year to provide a lot more space and equipment. But I think the key is the lack of staff to serve more patients. This is going to get worse before it gets better.

 

[justinbrett]

I haven't heard that news - but I'd suspect SHA wouldn't have prevented a sudden deterioration, even with SHA - hotels with 24/7 care.

Post automatically merged: Aug 25, 2021

The under 1000 ICU capacity is both public and private - I guess its NSW not Sydney. Obviously some being currently used with other conditions and illnesses

The capacity is 2000 ICU but would need staff from other states, that's the limiting factor. I know WA have offered.

 

[N860CR]

Westmead is now into emergency operations, rather than Business As Usual.

In fairness, we are in the middle of a global pandemic, we have hard "state borders", we have no international arrivals, restaurants are closed, shopping centres are closed, people are being fined thousands of dollars for sitting on the grass.... I don't see how anyone could think it's "Business as Usual" at the moment, nor why a hospital would be immune to that.

As our health minister said, the system is well and truly coping. It's not armageddon; it's the heath system doing its job.

 

[Batterytraveller]

As a (former) frequent traveller to Japan, I have long lauded their habit of public making wearing at the slightest sign of a sniffle, and have readily adopted that approach myself. In fact, the masks I used at the start of this whole thing we’re ones I had bought in the 100 yen shops of Tokyo for exactly that purpose. I personally don’t find a surgical mask too much of an embuggerance and would love it if we adopted sensible mask wearing as a social value here in Australia for the future. I’ve lost had the flu at least twice in my life despite flu shots, and would definitely prefer never to have it again.

The flipside of this is presenteeism. Although not unique to Japan, too many times I’ve been on the Yamanote line and one one with a sweaty forehead and a pale face above a mask and I thought “you should be at home in bed with a paracetamol and hot lemony drink, which is where I’ll be in a couple of days”.

i’d love people to learn that masks are good but staying home is better when you are sick.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The capacity is 2000 ICU but would need staff from other states, that's the limiting factor. I know WA have offered.

Since you seem to have better figures, what is the current ICU bed staffed capacity and surge staffed capacity and unstaffed capacity beyond that?

 

[justinbrett]

Since you seem to have better figures, what is the current ICU bed staffed capacity and surge staffed capacity and unstaffed capacity beyond that?

It looks like they can tolerate up to about 420 Covid ICU patients, so a little less than 4x the current rate. Even if it grew the same rate as cases (it's not), that would give us around 5 weeks, well into the period where 80% of the state is at least single jabbed and time passed for it to be effective, so these rates should start dropping even if cases don't.

Stats came from The Australian from a WNSW Health spokesman (it's a couple of days old):

The state has 844 staffed ICU beds available, and 608 of them were occupied on Monday.

Professor Holley said the system would become overwhelmed if the proportion of Covid-19 patients in ICU rose to about 50 per cent. “If we were up around the 50 per cent Covid occupancy rate, that would be a very demanding situation,” he said.

A spokesperson for the Western Sydney Local Health District said: “Westmead Hospital intensive care unit currently has no capacity issues.”

The number of Covid patients in hospital increased markedly on Tuesday and now stands at 447, up from 391 the day before.

NSW has the capacity to stretch to 2000 physical ICU beds but it would be almost impossible to adequately staff that number.

Professor Holley said the capacity in the system this year is significantly enhanced compared with last year, but intensive care units were often running close to capacity even without Covid-19 patients.

 

[antycbr]

It looks like they can tolerate up to about 420 Covid ICU patients, so a little less than 4x the current rate. Even if it grew the same rate as cases (it's not), that would give us around 5 weeks, well into the period where 80% of the state is at least single jabbed and time passed for it to be effective, so these rates should start dropping even if cases don't.

Stats came from The Australian from a WNSW Health spokesman (it's a couple of days old):

The state has 844 staffed ICU beds available, and 608 of them were occupied on Monday.

Professor Holley said the system would become overwhelmed if the proportion of Covid-19 patients in ICU rose to about 50 per cent. “If we were up around the 50 per cent Covid occupancy rate, that would be a very demanding situation,” he said.

A spokesperson for the Western Sydney Local Health District said: “Westmead Hospital intensive care unit currently has no capacity issues.”

The number of Covid patients in hospital increased markedly on Tuesday and now stands at 447, up from 391 the day before.

NSW has the capacity to stretch to 2000 physical ICU beds but it would be almost impossible to adequately staff that number.

Professor Holley said the capacity in the system this year is significantly enhanced compared with last year, but intensive care units were often running close to capacity even without Covid-19 patients.

A few observations on this if we were going to hit the wall:

• you'd see more interventions and lockdown controls implemented (despite the rhetoric they have more cards they can play around critical work)
  
  
• there's probably more higher-urgency elective surgery that can be deferred as people end up in ICU
  
  
• more sources of ICU can be choked off e.g. banning construction to reduce accidents and extending the curfew to more areas to reduce other types of crime or motor vehicle accidents
  
  
• the commonwealth would offer help such as ADF and AusMAT
  
  
• some of the incoming caseload will resolve one way or the other (recovered or death)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It looks like they can tolerate up to about 420 Covid ICU patients, so a little less than 4x the current rate. Even if it grew the same rate as cases (it's not), that would give us around 5 weeks, well into the period where 80% of the state is at least single jabbed and time passed for it to be effective, so these rates should start dropping even if cases don't.

Stats came from The Australian from a WNSW Health spokesman (it's a couple of days old):

The state has 844 staffed ICU beds available, and 608 of them were occupied on Monday.

Professor Holley said the system would become overwhelmed if the proportion of Covid-19 patients in ICU rose to about 50 per cent. “If we were up around the 50 per cent Covid occupancy rate, that would be a very demanding situation,” he said.

A spokesperson for the Western Sydney Local Health District said: “Westmead Hospital intensive care unit currently has no capacity issues.”

The number of Covid patients in hospital increased markedly on Tuesday and now stands at 447, up from 391 the day before.

NSW has the capacity to stretch to 2000 physical ICU beds but it would be almost impossible to adequately staff that number.

Professor Holley said the capacity in the system this year is significantly enhanced compared with last year, but intensive care units were often running close to capacity even without Covid-19 patients.

Thanks for the added information.

I'll stick to the under 1000 bed number for the moment.

I read a NSW Health document claiming more 500 beds could be more 2000 beds. News - Non-urgent elective surgery suspended in Greater Sydney
But it could be read as surge (and/or spin). I have grave doubts the surge capacity could be maintained and staffed for long.

Given what the ICU doctor at the recent NSW authorities press conference said - patients are staying longer in ICU as well.

 

[Seat0B]

Yes that was it! What is RSV?

I found it! thanks for the tip to search for RSV @ketsuzei

Surge in serious respiratory illness among children puts doctors on high alert

Doctors are observing an alarming rise in the number of Victorian children presenting to emergency departments with a respiratory illness that can cause pneumonia.

www.theage.com.au

And apparently, not just in Victoria either....

newsGP - Why did RSV see a summer surge in Australia this year?

RSV is a common winter illness in children, but 2020 was different.

www1.racgp.org.au

Contagious virus easy to confuse with COVID-19 on the rise in Queensland

The spread of a highly contagious virus with similar symptoms to COVID-19 has prompted warnings that 2021 could be a year of illness and disease as social distancing rules start to relax.

www.abc.net.au

 

[justinbrett]

Thanks for the added information.

I'll stick to the under 1000 bed number for the moment.

I read a NSW Health document claiming more 500 beds could be more 2000 beds. News - Non-urgent elective surgery suspended in Greater Sydney
But it could be read as surge (and/or spin). I have grave doubts the surge capacity could be maintained and staffed for long.

Given what the ICU doctor at the recent NSW authorities press conference said - patients are staying longer in ICU as well.

Regardless what figure you want to use, the takeaway message is we still have plenty of capacity and it's not yet time to be concerned, regardless of what the headlines are on news.com.au. We just need to keep the vaccinate rate up and then we've got this in the bag.

 

[Seat0B]

Can communication of privileges be emailed to me if I request, I no longer have access to a fax machine.

DYAC strikes again!!! But it did make me smile to read your response @oznflfan, which can only be a good thing.