Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

In good news Friday (grab the salt, but let's take what we can get...):

University of South Australia epidemiologist, Professor Adrian Esterman, said the 882 new cases recorded today increased NSW's five-day moving average from 837 to 849.

"However, the Reff has dropped from 1.18 to 1.13, the 5th drop in a row. It could be that we are starting to see the increase in infections slowing down, which is good news," he wrote on twitter.

 

[dairyfloss]

In good news Friday (grab the salt, but let's take what we can get...):

University of South Australia epidemiologist, Professor Adrian Esterman, said the 882 new cases recorded today increased NSW's five-day moving average from 837 to 849.

"However, the Reff has dropped from 1.18 to 1.13, the 5th drop in a row. It could be that we are starting to see the increase in infections slowing down, which is good news," he wrote on twitter.

Yep - here's the view after today's numbers were added. By jingo, she's a flattening (more)! (source)

 

[jakeseven7]

Yep - here's the view after today's numbers were added. By jingo, she's a flattening (more)! (source)
View attachment 256587

Maybe it’s the start of the long tail…. But I thought we didn’t care about case numbers anymore anyway

 

[dairyfloss]

Maybe it’s the start of the long tail…. But I thought we didn’t care about case numbers anymore anyway

Oh, yes - allow me to Berejiklianise - the most important thing now, and going forwards, is the vaccinations. But please know, and I can't stress this enough, that we still need case numbers to be lower than they are so that when we get to 70% & 80% & 90%, because that will effect how much free-er, we can actually be. Not totally free. Free-er. Can I just stress, and please know, we will be free... er. Doctor Hazzard?

 

[justinbrett]

Maybe it’s the start of the long tail…. But I thought we didn’t care about case numbers anymore anyway

It's not a laughing matter.

As vaccinations increase, the R eff will go down, hopfeully below 1. More importantly hospitalisation and ICU will go down at an even faster rate (but will be longer to see this downward trend).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Maybe it’s the start of the long tail…. But I thought we didn’t care about case numbers anymore anyway

Today's numbers might be the start of a big drop in testing level - at least 20% down from yesterday. Positivity rate per test still a new record.

Less testing, means less .... (perhaps let's not go there).

 

[justinbrett]

Today's numbers might be the start of a big drop in testing level - at least 20% down from yesterday. Positivity rate per test still a new record.

Less testing, means less .... (perhaps let's not go there).

Today's numbers are not that relevant - we all know the one day isn't a trend speel.

It's the R eff going down which is the good news, and that's based on 5 day rolling averages. Today's numbers actually put the average up so it's not a case of today's bringing down the average in isolation.

 

[Seat0B]

Teachers across State now formally added to prioritisation for vaccines

About time teachers got recognised as being highly exposed to the virus, and some priority for vaccination.

 

[jakeseven7]

Today's numbers might be the start of a big drop in testing level - at least 20% down from yesterday. Positivity rate per test still a new record.

Less testing, means less .... (perhaps let's not go there).

Well we know as people get vaccinated they don’t get tested as readily so there will be more asymptomatic spread as the vaccinated population increases, everywhere.

 

[jakeseven7]

News Corp reporting NSW reopening date has leaked - 18 October and will involve ‘one on one’ type businesses opening but only for fully vaccinated people.

 

[justinbrett]

News Corp reporting NSW reopening date has leaked - 18 October and will involve ‘one on one’ type businesses opening but only for fully vaccinated people.

She has literally said this every day.

The date is the estimated date NSW will get to 70% double jabbed.

 

[jakeseven7]

News Corp reporting NSW reopening date has leaked - 18 October and will involve ‘one on one’ type businesses opening but only for fully vaccinated people.

Here is some more detail.

At least some flowing locks will get some attention!

I wonder where they will run the trial.

——

NSW to trial the reopening of industries for fully vaccinated people​

The NSW government will soon trial reopening one-on-one industries such as hairdressing for fully vaccinated people to prepare for the easing of most restrictions once inoculation rates reach 70 per cent in mid-October.

Small-scale trials of service industries where both parties are vaccinated will begin shortly and act as a litmus test for other sectors like hospitality, which could then reopen with capacity limits within two months.

NSW to trial the reopening of industries for fully vaccinated people

Small-scale trials of service industries where both parties are vaccinated will be done to act as a litmus test for other sectors like hospitality, which could reopen with capacity limits within two months.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Jenya]

Premier Mark McGowan reveals COVID-19 positive truck drivers entered WA from Sydney​

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Yes it is.

All deaths in this current NSW outbreak have been in those not fully vaccinated except two (both very elderly with serious co-morbities). All but 5 have been in people eligible for vaccination for months, so entirely preventable. If those eligible had got vaccinated promptly the number of deaths would only be 7 (less if you ignore those who were in palliative care for other conditions or died from meningitis with covid)

I'm not sure the timelines are as generous as you make them out to be.

My father - mid 80s, otherwise relatively healthy, not in the 1a group and went to have his shot as soon as it was open to him. He went to a respiratory clinic. He just completed his second dose of AZ at the end of June. Allow a couple extra weeks after that for the vaccine to take full effect - so early July. We're now only 6 weeks beyond that.

There are thousands more that didn't live just around the corner from a respiratory clinic and had to go through their GPs. And there were major supply issues there.

To say everyone has had months to get vaccinated is not really reflective of reality. Not least because there's a three month gap with AZ.

 

[pagingjoan]

I'm not sure the timelines are as generous as you make them out to be.

My father - mid 80s, otherwise relatively healthy, not in the 1a group and went to have his shot as soon as it was open to him. He went to a respiratory clinic. He just completed his second dose of AZ at the end of June. Allow a couple extra weeks after that for the vaccine to take full effect - so early July. We're now only 6 weeks beyond that.

There are thousands more that didn't live just around the corner from a respiratory clinic and had to go through their GPs. And there were major supply issues there.

To say everyone has had months to get vaccinated is not really reflective of reality. Not least because there's a three month gap with AZ.

Yes, most of us know and accept those factors and agree with your assessment.
But it doesn't stop the broad generalisations being made repeatedly as if they are across-the-board facts.
It is tiring and dispiriting.

 

[N860CR]

To say everyone has had months to get vaccinated is not really reflective of reality. Not least because there's a three month gap with AZ.

That point is valid, however the vast majority of fatalities have occurred in people who have not received a single dose, so the wait period is hardly relevant. Of late, there have been a few who have “had one dose”. What’s the bet it was in the last week or so? Since they perceived a risk.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Premier Mark McGowan reveals COVID-19 positive truck drivers entered WA from Sydney​

New cases of COVID-19 in Perth after truck drivers test positive

Contact tracing is under way in WA after two new cases of COVID-19 were detected on Friday.

www.watoday.com.au

I was going to ask if they found somewhere to put them (hotel/camp/sent back to NSW, put nothing past WA), but it seems like a hotel is where they've been placed.

 

[justinbrett]

So I'm guessing now it's 7pm and there's been no news, we can assume National Cabinet did not agree on anything.

 

[Pushka]

So I'm guessing now it's 7pm and there's been no news, we can assume National Cabinet did not agree on anything.

It was reported earlier it was going to be a late announcement if anything.

 

[jakeseven7]

Crickets from National Cabinet. Probably still sounding out the big words for QLD and WA .

But seriously, what does the silence mean…. I suspect major disagreements. Will be interesting to see the ‘debrief’.