Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Must...Fly!]

With any luck, a high school maths teacher was on hand to describe the concept of exponential growth to the politicians at odds with the Doherty modelling.

 

[jakeseven7]

With any luck, a high school maths teacher was on hand to describe the concept of exponential growth to the politicians at odds with the Doherty modelling.

High school?

 

[justinbrett]

Mark McGowan has spoken. He specifically said he won’t open his borders at 70% if WA has no covid at the time. Apparently it was a long discussion at National Cabinet.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Mark McGowan has spoken. He specifically said he won’t open his borders at 70% if WA has no covid at the time. Apparently it was a long discussion at National Cabinet.

Any mention of 80%?

I'd like to see my family and friends one day, I'm sure many others would be in the same basket! Hoping Christmas is a good time especially for those with family overseas

 

[Pushka]

Mark McGowan has spoken. He specifically said he won’t open his borders at 70% if WA has no covid at the time. Apparently it was a long discussion at National Cabinet.

So if WA had covid then he'd open?

 

[justinbrett]

Any mention of 80%?

I'd like to see my family and friends one day, I'm sure many others would be in the same basket! Hoping Christmas is a good time especially for those with family overseas

He basically said "why would I intentionally let covid in when we don't have any covid, there will be a huge number of deaths, it will be a catastrophe"

So 70, 80, 90, I assume is the same answer. But no, didn't talk about 80.

He did make a weird point that it wouldn't apply if WA had covid at the time, which was a strange thing to say I thought.

So if WA had covid then he'd open?

Yeah, it was weird.

 

[Princess Fiona]

So if WA had covid then he'd open?

Perhaps…..

 

[jakeseven7]

So WA have said no open borders at 70% if they have no cases.

So we will have to ship some more NSW truckies over, stat. Those lovely removalists perhaps that visited VIC?

If that fails maybe some public servants from Canberra.

If that fails some baristas or fashion designers from Melbourne.

 

[Must...Fly!]

He did make a weird point that it wouldn't apply if WA had covid at the time, which was a strange thing to say I thought.

So, as usual in WA...."Wait Awhile"

 

[Must...Fly!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431174672171737089

Says the leader of the worst public health system in the country that, on a daily basis, leaves suffering patients in ambulances and corridors for hours waiting for treatment.

 

[kyle]

So WA have said no open borders at 70% if they have no cases.

So we will have to ship some more NSW truckies over, stat. Those lovely removalists perhaps g thy hat visited VIC?

If that fails maybe some public servants from Canberra.

If that fails some baristas or fashion designers from Melbourne.

That might actually be the lesson he needs to learn. Not hard to get some virus across the border.

 

[moa999]

Yep - here's the view after today's numbers were added. By jingo, she's a flattening (more)! (source)
View attachment 256587

Isn't that missing the 1000+ day.

Chris Billington shows Reff has been consistently at 1.25-1.50 since mid-July.

As vaccinations increase, the R eff will go down, hopfeully below 1.

I'm not sure about this - see UK and 35-50k cases a day.

Hospitalisations go down, but not necessarily infections.

And if anything it makes more people asymptomatic and the young more 'bulletproof' and likely to take adverse behaviours.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Hospitalisations go down, but not necessarily infections.

How could that be in any way negative?

 

[moa999]

How could that be in any way negative?

Not saying it's not..

Just there seems to be an assumption that the vaccine stops you catching or transmitting Covid.

It doesn't.
Reduces elements of that moderately, but reduces symptoms and risk of significant outcomes significantly.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

He just wants to be able to say "I did everything I could to protect my citizens from their ability to exercise their rights, for their own good" once it hits 70 with a week or two they'll open up due to 'cases'

 

[Pushka]

And now, on cue, SA in truckie covid alert.

 

[dairyfloss]

Isn't that missing the 1000+ day.

Chris Billington shows Reff has been consistently at 1.25-1.50 since mid-July.

No, it’s in there - it’s based on moving averages, and there have been enough ups and downs to keep it at those peaks. The two statisticians must have their own way of calculating it from the averages. I don’t know which is more ‘real’.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Denmark has just announced to lift almost all restrictions in the country. Important to note for us in Australia, as they have vaccinated 71% of the entire population (per the article). This is what I would hope to see here.

Denmark to lift all remaining Covid restrictions on 10 September

Health ministry says high level of vaccination means virus ‘no longer a critical threat to society’

www.theguardian.com

 

[TonyHancock]

I have tried not to get caught up in the stats but do keep an eye on cases, deaths and hospitalisations in the UK. (I am following the travel restrictions between the US and UK closely because I am caught up in it.) Cases, deaths and hospitalisations are all on the rise. What I don't see is how many are unvaccinated. 80% of the UK adult population (16+) has been double vaccinated.

The reality is that this is what Australia must prepare for, and accept, if any sort of normal life can be returned to. I am still getting the feeling that there are many in Australia not ready for it. (Divide the numbers in these images by 3 to get some rough numbers for Australia.)

 

[kyle]

I have tried not to get caught up in the stats but do keep an eye on cases, deaths and hospitalisations in the UK. (I am following the travel restrictions between the US and UK closely because I am caught up in it.) Cases, deaths and hospitalisations are all on the rise. What I don't see is how many are unvaccinated. 80% of the UK adult population (16+) has been double vaccinated.

The reality is that this is what Australia must prepare for, and accept, if any sort of normal life can be returned to. I am still getting the feeling that there are many in Australia not ready for it. (Divide the numbers in these images by 3 to get some rough numbers for Australia.)

View attachment 256628

I just did a survey about covid and asking how many deaths a year is acceptable when things are open. I think I picked the option 100 to 1000.