Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[burmans]

Seems I'm not the only person thinking the Burnet modelling may have overegged it for NSW.

'When you look at most models around the world - and we have real-life examples of this in the United Kingdom - where you get the models, they show a certain picture which is doom and gloom and the reality is substantially less,' Dr Coatsworth continued.

'We have a real-life example of that in NSW, where the Burnet Institute predicted far worse than is going on in NSW at the moment.'

Specifically he is talking about the case and hospitalisation rate predictions. They got the cases just about spot on actually but 3000 hospitalisations seem way off.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Seems I'm not the only person thinking the Burnet modelling may have overegged it for NSW.

'When you look at most models around the world - and we have real-life examples of this in the United Kingdom - where you get the models, they show a certain picture which is doom and gloom and the reality is substantially less,' Dr Coatsworth continued.

'We have a real-life example of that in NSW, where the Burnet Institute predicted far worse than is going on in NSW at the moment.'

Specifically he is talking about the case and hospitalisation rate predictions. They got the cases just about spot on actually but 3000 hospitalisations seem way off.

I recall Burnet didn't do the ICU modelling, so just double checking whether Burnet is claiming the hospitalisation number.

I also wonder how much the expected number made hospitals consider carefully which covid patients are accepted into hospital and which are left to hospital in home.

 

[moa999]

NSW 935 / 4

Agreed.
Although will be interesting to see if all the weekend picnics changes the rate.

Vic R is also settling at 1.2-1.3.
Likely now means a peak of around 1000 in early October.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Agreed.
Although will be interesting to see if all the weekend picnics changes the rate.

Vic R is also settling at 1.2-1.3.
Likely now means a peak of around 1000 in early October.

Yes, and Chris Billington saying 7 of 12 LGAs of concern have a Reff of 1.00 or below

 

[jakeseven7]

Thanks. Good to also read that The Age also confirmed what others have been saying regarding State borders and international travel:

Mr Andrews said he expected that after 80 per cent fully vaccinated targets were hit, interstate and international travel would resume....

No one was really worried about it apart from a couple of the usual rabid reactions on here The * is that only vaccinated people can travel I imagine

 

[somebol]

Andrew Barr with his best impression of winter is coming

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Andrew Barr with his best impression of winter is coming

hoped after a day off and only 7 cases today he would have been upbeat but it seems his glass is only half full and has a chip in it

 

[SydneySwan]

Andrew Barr with his best impression of winter is coming

Yes he just absolutely oozes pessimism.

 

[somebol]

hoped after a day off and only 7 cases today he would have been upbeat but it seems his glass is only half full and has a chip in it

his glass is broken...

why does he keep harping on about national average reaching 80%?
we should only care about NSW and to an extent VIC. The rest have no bearing on us specially given QLD & WA will keep their borders shut

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

his glass is broken...

why does he keep harping on about national average reaching 80%?
we should only care about NSW and to an extent VIC. The rest have no bearing on us specially given QLD & WA will keep their borders shut

May be the ACT Chief Minister is secretly hoping Australia doesn't reach 80%, so ACT doesn't have to open up - the original rule was the national and state/territory need to reach the milestone, before the state/territory would action the relevant phase of the national plan.

 

[jase05]

CFMEU low life’s causing a commotion in Melbourne. All the anti vax nut jobs up in arms about mandatory vax for construction workers. Going to march down to Dan’s office.

 

[33kft]

CFMEU low life’s causing a commotion in Melbourne. All the anti vax nut jobs up in arms about mandatory vax for construction workers. Going to march down to Dan’s office.

If only the newspapers would go with a headline like "Tradies bemoan tiny cough" (in the arm, of course) with lots of pictures of their unmasked faces and a synopsis on how far off chewable vaccine variants might be for the squeamish, they might be less inclined to protest for a 4th time in 7 days.

 

[SydneySwan]

May be the ACT Chief Minister is secretly hoping Australia doesn't reach 80%, so ACT doesn't have to open up - the original rule was the national and state/territory need to reach the milestone, before the state/territory would action the relevant phase of the national plan.

I am now expecting NSW to open up with the ACT still in lockdown. I think Barr's position would become untenable at that point if not before.

 

[mrs.dr.ron]

Yeah ! The head Kicker is BACK BABY !!!

‘Not vaccinated, not our problem’: Barnaby‘s harsh message to unvaxxed​

Acting Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has issued a hard line stance on those who choose to remain unvaccinated as Australia reopens.

Unvaccinated Australians have been told if they choose not to receive a jab they will not be the government’s problem as the nation reopens.
Speaking in Canberra on Monday, Acting Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce said Australia had to move on from its current locked down state.
“Unfortunately, we can't wait for those who decide not to get vaccinated … By the end of October, you'll have more vaccines than people wanting to get vaccinated,” Mr Joyce said.
“You’ll have chemist shops, GPs and clinics. If in that instance you don’t want to get vaccinated, that’s not our problem anymore."

 

[SydneySwan]

Yeah ! The head Kicker is BACK BABY !!!

‘Not vaccinated, not our problem’: Barnaby‘s harsh message to unvaxxed​

Acting Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has issued a hard line stance on those who choose to remain unvaccinated as Australia reopens.
ScoMo denies Biden snub
Unvaccinated Australians have been told if they choose not to receive a jab they will not be the government’s problem as the nation reopens.
Speaking in Canberra on Monday, Acting Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce said Australia had to move on from its current locked down state.
“Unfortunately, we can't wait for those who decide not to get vaccinated … By the end of October, you'll have more vaccines than people wanting to get vaccinated,” Mr Joyce said.
“You’ll have chemist shops, GPs and clinics. If in that instance you don’t want to get vaccinated, that’s not our problem anymore."

We certainly live in strange times. For once I actually agree with Barnaby! I need to go and have a lie down.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Given the recent discussion on ICU and moving Covid patients in this thread, some might be interested a discussion I just had with my daughter about her hospital, and ward, here in Victoria.

Firstly things are in a state of flux and so what does happen may be different as the hospital reacts to actual cases.

Her ward will now take all Ventilated Tracheostomy Covid patients from the ICU at Day 20 to wean them. For some this may be mainly just for decannulation without significant weaning time. They will also probably receive intubated patients on ventilators also at Day 20. So this is a new protocol compared to what occurred in the Vic Second Wave.

The aim of weaning is to gradually return airflow to the upper airway and restore normal physiological functions. This can takes days or even months.

Normally (ie non-Covid) the ICU would wean most of their own patients and the unit in her ward that specialises in this would only take on ones the ICU couldn't wean. That is, they get the complicated weaning cases and some of these can take months to wean.

In this case the move at Day20 is designed to free up ICU capacity. By Day 20 the viral load should be less. Though their expertise with long-term and complicated weaning also makes them suited for the task.

However they would not normally have so many such patients all at once. So that is going to be a very heavy workload, probably for a very long time, with patients who will often have a poor prognosis compared to many ventilated patients. Though it already is a ward where people die on a regular basis.

The Unit is the only such specialised one in the state and so depending on how quickly cases surge the patients moved at Day 20 may just be from her hospital, or from multiple hospitals.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

Given the recent discussion on ICU and moving Covid patients in this thread, some might be interested a discussion I just had with my daughter about her hospital, and ward, here in Victoria.

Not in Victoria, but thank you for the wonderful work your daughter is doing. It must be incredibly draining work knowing the prognosis is often not good, but work that still needs to be done nonetheless.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I am now expecting NSW to open up with the ACT still in lockdown. I think Barr's position would become untenable at that point if not before.

It will be interesting to see how regional NSW is managed in action post 70% and post 80% v ACT

 

[jase05]

Dan has shut down all construction for 2 weeks.
Hope those idiots that caused the commotion today are happy with themselves

 

[Scarlett]

In news that will surprise absolutely no one…

Will interesting to see how much the virus starts to spread around there when it all opens up.

——

Fears Byron region will be ‘awash’ with Covid cases by Christmas as locals reject vaccines​

There are growing fears for the Byron Bay and surrounding regionwith locals predicting the area’s high vaccine hesitancy will lead to disaster once NSW reopens within weeks.

Local health workers claimed anti-vaxxers were intentionally booking fake vaccination appointments only to never show up, causing doses of the precious vaccine to be wasted.

Can an entire region be nominated for a Darwin Award.
Or perhaps better to just refer to it as social Darwinism...