Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Melburnian1]

It is my understanding from posting of others here, that that is normal on the day of the report and within 24-48 hours they are shifted to another column after analysis and interviewing has occurred. So possibly a misleading statement made by the reporter either in ignorance or pushing an agenda.

Not quite, because each day the number of cases that supposedly have not been able to be traced in Victoria has increased.

Maybe we ought look back to a particular event in Melbourne's CBD early in June...

 

[p--and--t]

Bit of a miss! Hopefully NSW Health gets a bit faster...

——-
Sydney pub forced to chase health officials to confirm COVID-19 exposure


The licensee of an eastern suburbs pub that was visited by a person who later tested positive to COVID-19 says he only learned his venue had been exposed through the media and had to chase NSW Health to confirm the news.

Jack Carter, who runs the Village Inn in Paddington, said he did not know one of his patrons had attended his venue while potentially infectious until it was reported by The Sydney Morning Herald at 9.40am on Monday. The patient attended the venue nine days earlier from 6.30 to 10pm on July 11.

When Mr Carter managed to get in touch with the epidemiologist who headed the contact tracing group, he learned NSW Health had known of the exposure for some time.

Venue forced to chase health officials to confirm COVID-19 exposure

The licensee of the Village Inn in Paddington said he was particularly disappointed given he had recently been told off by doctors who wanted to make a group booking in breach of the 10-person cap.

www.smh.com.au

That's totally unacceptable, how dare NSW try and take away the limelight from Victoria yet again. *[sarcasm]

 

[Pushka]

I spent about 40 years working for Fed and State governments. I have some experience here.

However, we all have our own views on such things, I guess. I’m not here to convince anyone, just stating my point of view.

Edit: Any tenderer with half a brain can soon work out how to submit a tender that for all intents and purposes meets the requirements. Then, who sorts out the performance of the tenderer after the event? Everyone has usually moved on by then.

I think are both the same age and experience levels then .

As far as tendering goes, we are very answerable for the outcomes we deliver given our industry, so we dont aim to win tenders where we dont feel comfortable in being able to perform according to the professional body we are answerable to.

 

[Melburnian1]

IMO its is extremely selfish to put individual religious community desire ahead of of the health of the community at large. If looking to make a worthy sacrifice, right now that means not going to large gatherings and ignoring health mandates by singing, shaking hands, taking communion (you are eating a wafer manhandled by a priest).

Religious belief does not give anyone the right to break state or federal health mandates. We are a secular society, state laws outweigh any direction from the pope or any relgious leaders.

But I and Catholics right round Oz haven't done any of what you suggest in the first paragraph. We've scrupulously compiled with these directives, such as not gathering at all (as in Victoria in the last week since Stage 3), or in groups of no more than 10, or 20.

Many of us haven't been able to attend Mass in person for weeks if not months depending on the state or territory. There are many parishes streaming Masses to our smartphones/PCs/tablets.

In Victoria, singing by choiristers has been OK provided it's only a couple of parishioners who are widely separated. From what I've seen (as I'm not one) typically they now use separate microphones to further guard against transmission.

The sign of peace has been discontinued by handshake: we nod to each other or otherwise acknowledge. Holy Communion is no longer distributed by the Priest, but typically left at the conclusion of Mass for individuals to partake of.

I don't exactly know the circumstances of what was permitted in NSW on those days in terms of numbers, or what procedures the particular Maronite Catholic congregation had in place to ensure 'social distancing.' Perhaps the Parish was completely complying but someone in the congregation was asymptomatic at the time of attending the multiple Masses that he or she did. The incubation period can be several days can it not?

You know little about the huge amount of paperwork that the Catholic Archdioceses have sent to parishes to ensure that there's compliance with government requirements, even though there's a perception by some (especially in Victoria) that we're being treated more restrictively than some secular activities or at least some adherents of one other religion.

I wonder why...

 

[trevella]

Maybe we ought look back to a particular event in Melbourne's CBD early in June...

Some church ritual?

If you meant something else, maybe dispense with the cowardly innuendo and just say it.

 

[Pushka]

How are hospital and ICU rates going now? Given the recent increase in numbers it is about the time that admissions will start to ramp up, usually around 8 days in.

 

[SydneySwan]

Religious belief does not give anyone the right to break state or federal health mandates. We are a secular society, state laws outweigh any direction from the pope or any relgious leaders.

Absolutely.

 

[Melburnian1]

Some church ritual?

That "Black LIves Matter" rally where thousands of people, against all advice from the Commonwealth, were in close proximity, especially when speeches were being delivered at the top of Bourke St, Melbourne. Has been admitted as source of some transmission.

 

[p--and--t]

Has been admitted as source of some transmission.

Can you please supply the background to that comment.

I have only seen live comments from Dr Sutton (admittedly at least 2 weeks ago) saying that while people attended the march had before the march or subsequent to the march had contracted covid there was no evidence from their investigations and analysis that anyone contracted the virus at the march in Victoria. Its a bit like saying someone who went to Myers (and several other dozen places including living in a building with dozens of other sufferers), contracted covid and therefore Myers is the source.

 

[DC3]

I think are both the same age and experience levels then .

As far as tendering goes, we are very answerable for the outcomes we deliver given our industry, so we dont aim to win tenders where we dont feel comfortable in being able to perform according to the professional body we are answerable to.

Unfortunately, there are many who are not as honest as you. And you also are more ethical than some.

A problem as I see it is that the dishonest are encouraged by a lack of accountability and follow-up action/penalties, over promising and under-delivering, and the bureaucracy choosing the easy way out. Far from everyone, but they are out there.

 

[dajop]

.. so how about we let the independent expert judge appointed get to the bottom of it

It would be interesting to know if those who are exprienced in incident investigation are also looking into it. In aviation incidents, it's not the judiciary that works out what went wrong, it's trained experts. For example, you'd have to look atat hotel selection .... if one of the main reasons for mingling of guards and guests was to escort them to get fresh air and/or have a cigarette, could you manage some of this risk by contracting to hotels with opening, rather than sealed windows?

 

[p--and--t]

could you manage some of this risk by contracting to hotels with opening, rather than sealed windows?

Ideally (if the security could be managed properly) the rooms would have balconies so the occupants could have fresh air, have a smoke, have a view etc to remove any need for guards to escort them in and out of the building for a smoke etc and reduce the feeling of claustrophobia.

The right building would be needed where people couldn't clamber from one balcony to another etc or "escape" without being detected.

I would imagine finding suitable buildings in the right location at an affordable price could be an issue.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Not really. Had other states experienced the same issues then I'd agree.

If you mean issues in that private security guards did not always do the right thing in other states, then the reports are that some did not.

Of course mistakes were made along the way in the early days. The rest of Australia used health workers and/or Police. So for me - It comes down to poor judgement.

Were health workers actually doing the security interstate or was it more a mixture of police, ADF and private security guards? Not that I have really researched exactly what each did, but many articles that I have read indicated that security was done by a mix of the latter 3 groups and not healthcare workers. Use of private security guards seems to have been widesread.

By not providing appropriate training and selecting people without the nous or skills? It only takes one!

Indeed it can take only one, or in Victoria may be two as rumour has it that there may be two different genomic sources of the second wave in Victoria.

And screening out people who might have sex with people under there car is not so easy. Police, healthcare workers, priests, teachers have all at times been found wanting.

With Victoria it could well get down to the key difference being that two security guards may have had sex with two quarantine guests and thus each caught the virus. It could well be without these acts, if they occurred, that the other dominos to spread the the virus out into the community would not have fallen. We may well have never have had the second wave.

This part if it occurred I doubt anyone could have predicted. Now I am in not saying the contracts were done properly in Vic as they clearly were not, but not all in life can be foreseen.

From what I have read there have been quarantine breaches in many states. Though in Victoria the consequences have been disastrous.

PS:
Security guards in NSW were sacked for sleeping on the job. There are reports of sleeping guards from May till June.

A private Security Guard hard at work at a Sydney Quarantine Hotel, and who also seems to be lacking PPE.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Apparently the Victorian health dept has received some criticism for understaffing and/or lack of qualified staff to undertake this detective work.

Back in April Vic went from 30 contact tracers to 1000. I remember that back then that some of criticism was that it was overkill hiring so many, and what would they all do...

'It is a bit like detective work': Meet the contact tracers fighting coronavirus in Australia

Contact tracers are rarely in the spotlight but their role has become vital in slowing the coronavirus pandemic in Australia

www.abc.net.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Not quite, because each day the number of cases that supposedly have not been able to be traced in Victoria has increased.

Maybe we ought look back to a particular event in Melbourne's CBD early in June...

Well looking at the BLM in Melbourne on 6th June. Firstly in the table you refer to the not traced numbers went from 177 to 200 for Victoria. So 23 cases from unknown source. ie Date of March plus incubation period. I do not know the data, but presumably most of those 23 would have been looked at re contacts who may have marched.

Of those that later tested positive and who marched most were considered to not have been infectious when they marched. Only one I believe was thought to have been possibly positive at the time of the march and was considered unlikely to have been infectious as well.


Contact tracing of those at that time who tested positive and were at the march found no link to anyone not at the march. Later genomic sequencing also does seem to have found any links.


QUESTION to Acting Chief Medical Officer, Professor Paul Kelly's press conference on 1 July 2020

Of the cases that have come out of Victoria over the past week, do you have an indication if any of those cases were linked to the protest? Whether they were [indistinct] the protest, or whether people who went to the protest tested positive? And do you know how people— you're finding out whether people were at the protest, whether they're asked if they, after they were— after they test positive, when they're being tested, what's the— is there a protocol around that?

PROFESSOR PAUL KELLY:

So, there is no evidence that there was— has been any spread from the Black Lives Matter protest. That doesn't preclude the important message: this is not a time to be having mass protests, particularly in Melbourne. The risk of— the fact that we haven't found any more cases from those protests doesn't prove that the protests are safe. And just to be clear, it's not just protests, it's any mass gathering. And so there are very clear and strong restrictions on mass gatherings that are part of this process that's being worked through for those hotspots.

 

[jakeseven7]

I wonder if NSW have held back from stronger mask advisory because they need time to build up a stock pile?

VIC has obviously been planning for this for a while as it has millions on the way...

Also from news reports this AM Victorians have been privately buying up masks and all the components needed to make masks so maybe NSW have to wait in order for retailers to catch up on demand too.

On ABC radio this morning there were multiple reports of people getting relatives to buy them hundreds of masks interstate and mail them down to Victoria to get around the temporary retail restrictions imposed to help moderate demand in Victoria and ensure everyone can access supplies.

—————

Tighter restrictions and masks more likely in NSW

Targeted shutdowns such as the closure of pubs and restaurants are likely before any total lockdown.

Several ministers, who described the mood in cabinet as "extremely anxious", said there would need to be a return of more restrictions to ensure NSW residents were kept safe.

Some in cabinet also felt that some "high-risk" businesses such as gyms posed a significant threat.

A senior minister said that NSW's economy was critical to the country and given Victoria's looming economic collapse, there was no way NSW could allow a full-scale shutdown.

"We would cripple the country. We aren't Tasmania or South Australia," the minister said.

Another senior minister said: "I think we will see masks before a shutdown.

Tighter restrictions and masks more likely than full lockdown

NSW is unlikely to return to full lockdown, although several senior ministers are keen for restrictions to be tightened.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Pushka]

Unfortunately, there are many who are not as honest as you. And you also are more ethical than some.

A problem as I see it is that the dishonest are encouraged by a lack of accountability and follow-up action/penalties, over promising and under-delivering, and the bureaucracy choosing the easy way out. Far from everyone, but they are out there. ☹

Yes. Indeed. Have also experienced such unethical companies and briefly our somonay joined with one until we experienced their business model.

If you mean issues in that private security guards did not always do the right thing in other states, then the reports are that some did not.


Were health workers actually doing the security interstate or was it more a mixture of police, ADF and private security guards? Not that I have really researched exactly what each did, but many articles that I have read indicated that security was done by a mix of the latter 3 groups and not healthcare workers. Use of private security guards seems to have been widesread.



Indeed it can take only one, or in Victoria may be two as rumour has it that there may be two different genomic sources of the second wave in Victoria.

And screening out people who might have sex with people under there car is not so easy. Police, healthcare workers, priests, teachers have all at times been found wanting.

With Victoria it could well get down to the key difference being that two security guards may have had sex with two quarantine guests and thus each caught the virus. It could well be without these acts, if they occurred, that the other dominos to spread the the virus out into the community would not have fallen. We may well have never have had the second wave.

This part if it occurred I doubt anyone could have predicted. Now I am in not saying the contracts were done properly in Vic as they clearly were not, but not all in life can be foreseen.

From what I have read there have been quarantine breaches in many states. Though in Victoria the consequences have been disastrous.

PS:
Security guards in NSW were sacked for sleeping on the job. There are reports of sleeping guards from May till June.

A private Security Guard hard at work at a Sydney Quarantine Hotel, and who also seems to be lacking PPE.

I think in SA we mainly had Police and Health people involved but on the other hand we had very controlled numbers here. However I do know of a security agent who was sacked because he wasnt wearing PPE. Mostly the vision was of police. Many of the rooms had balconies as well. The police used high wire barriers so that no one could walk past the hotels entrance without clearance.

SA had 440 contact tracers at the beginning of April.

Whether or not BLM meant that the covid spread from that to me is irrelevant. It is more the message that was sent to others that if you felt strongly enough about an issue (obviously a compelling issue with regards to BLM) then it was ok to demonstrate. Extending that, this was interpreted as if people felt very strongly about their long held traditions and necessary religious celebrations etc, then it was ok to do so.

 

[blackcat20]

I think there is too much focus on families....Vic has now come out and said 80% is from workplaces.

I think some of the initial spread was families; the cluster in the south eastern suburbs was linked to the western suburbs via a family gathering. Casey and Cardinia were initially hotspots but dropped off that list very quickly.

 

[serfty]

Has been admitted as source of some transmission.

This is incorrect.

Yes, some who attended have subsequently been diagnosed as having COVID-19 but the state government has generally been at pains to stress they are unlikely to have contracted COVID-19 during that rally.

The main problem with the rally in Melbourne were the poor state government signalling, an example of which was the Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews urging people not to attend the Melbourne protest even if they would not be stung with COVID-19 fines.

This really made light of the first lockdown and giving the impression were no longer "all in this together".

 

[serfty]

... Casey and Cardinia were initially hotspots but dropped off that list very quickly.

Likely due to those areas being early cases for the second wave and now most have recovered.