Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

Other members were discussing this, over the last few days that the only reason NSW was not moving to masks was that they hadn't stockpiled enough yet...
This has now surfaced in media....

-----

NSW worried about mask supply is 'Hugely concerning'

NSW Opposition Leader Jodi McKay has said it is "hugely concerning" that one of the reasons Health Minister Brad Hazzard cited for not making masks compulsory in the state on 2GB earlier this morning was the possibility of demand exceeding supply.

"What about if we do end up in a situation like Victoria?" Jodi McKay asked reporters on Thursday. "We simply don't have a number of the number of masks that are required."

Ms McKay accused the government of not being confident enough in the state's stockpile of masks to mandate wearing them.

The Labor opposition have called on the government to release the health advice on which they act to the public, as well as make mask wearing compulsory in places it is currently only 'recommended': on public transport, at the supermarket and in place of worship.

As the day unfolded: Melbourne stage four business shutdown begins, Australian death toll stands at 255

Melbourne's stage four lockdown has taken effect this morning, with non-essential retail stores shut and permits required to travel to work and access childcare. Travellers from Victoria into NSW will be placed in hotel quarantine from tomorrow.

www.smh.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Though the VIC Health Dept did discuss it / similar modelling on a closed call last night to Vic health professionals

Looking at what is in one newspaper for "modelling" it is not the output of modelling that I would ever report. ie it is just a single figure per day, rather than an upper and lower band which over time would get further part.

So where is the "modelling" from, and is it meant to be an upper bound, lower bound, average etc.... Without knowing what it actually is meant to be including its assumptions, as a graph/ model it is pretty well useless.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Also predicting 471 cases:



Anthony Macali
@migga

VIC #COVD19Aus update at midday 471 cases expected


Richard Willingham

@rwillingham
High Noon. Premier @DanielAndrewsMP daily press conference. @abcmelbourne @abcnews
11:12 AM · Aug 6, 2020
https://twitter.com/migga?ref_src=t...87|twgr^&ref_url=https://covidlive.com.au/vic

 

[jakeseven7]

Looking at what is in one newspaper for "modelling" it is not the output of modelling that I would ever report. ie it is just a single figure per day, rather than an upper and lower band which over time would get further part.

So where is the "modelling from, and is it meant to be an upper bound, lower bound, average etc.... Without knowing what it actually is meant to be including its assumptions, as a graph/ model it is pretty well useless.

Thats not the modelling that was discussed in depth on the closed call anyway. They had their own.

Haven't even bothered looking in depth at what is published in the Australian!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Thats not the modelling that was discussed in depth on the closed call anyway. They had their own.

Haven't even bothered looking in depth at what is published in the Australian!

I have no knowledge of what the Vic Health Officials were discussing, but if modelling was part of it you would imagine that they would be looking at both higher bound and lower bound scenarios as part of their planning.

And that the modellings would also have various scenarios depending on what controls/measures are used, plus also for various degrees of success or adoption of various restrictions. ie Facemask, how many people do not follow particular restrictions etc.

Or at least I would hope that they would be.

Some journalists will just want to show the worst case scenario and not what might be deemed to be the more probable scenario.

 

[jakeseven7]

Breaking: Symptomatic Sydney COVID-19 case waited six days to isolate and get tested

NSW Health’s latest surveillance report showed 16 cases had no known link to other cases or clusters in the four weeks to 25 July, confirming COVID-19 was circulating undetected in the community “risking further outbreaks”.

One of these mystery cases was symptomatic for six days before getting tested and isolating, the report revealed.

In other news, NSW contact tracers have still been unable to trace to source of a cluster of 100 cases in NSW.

The source of the Thai Rock Wetherill Park cluster remains a mystery despite extensive testing, the NSW Health COVID-19 surveillance report says.

As the day unfolded: Melbourne stage four business shutdown begins, Australian death toll stands at 255

Melbourne's stage four lockdown has taken effect this morning, with non-essential retail stores shut and permits required to travel to work and access childcare. Travellers from Victoria into NSW will be placed in hotel quarantine from tomorrow.

www.smh.com.au

 

[dajop]

Some journalists will just want to show the worst case scenario and not what might be deemed to be the more probable scenario.

Generally speaking, unless it was amazingly good news, newspapers, TV stations and online media, as we all well know, do not generate readers, viewers or clicks by reporting probably or best case scenarios. Worst case wins every time.

 

[Lynda2475]

The NSW COVID-19 weekly surveillance reports (COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - COVID-19 weekly surveillance reports) are interesting reading - does Vic publish something similar? I've always got the impression from my Vic collegaues that Vic Health have been less forthcoming with details ?

Latest NSW Report here: https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infec...nts/covid-19-surveillance-report-20200801.pdf

It states that 16 cases in the last 4 weeks have not been linked to a known cluster. But that 100% of cases have had full contact tracing completed.

 

[andye]

Ummmm the comorbity factors for coronavirus include immuno suppressed conditions that are definitely not uncommon for people in their 30's...

Not to mention being overweight / obese.

Fair point but people with risk factors which increase risk by a number of percentage points tend to (in Australia) go through a prolonged ICU stay with ventilation/ ECMO etc. Suppose if they had a Covid-induced vascular complication might be quicker.
I was thinking about people in their 30s who wouldn't be able to tolerate aggressive treatment because of their physical condition or underlying diagnosis
(No personal knowledge of the case in question)

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The postivity rate fluctuation and 3 day pattern remains (no idea why). So if this recent patterns remain (and it may not) then numbers may spike again on Saturday.

The test results announced each day also most unusual now seem to be announced in a batch rounded to 000 increments. Presumably the actual extra daily test results go into the next day's figures.

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW coronavirus spread: Multiple inner Sydney coronavirus alerts for Marrickville Metro, Glebe, CBD and Redfern after another confirmed case

People who dined at Jambo Jambo African restaurant on Glebe on 31 July should self-isolate immediately for 14 days since their visit, after a man in his 20s who visited the venue tested positive for COVID-19.

The man also visited a number of inner-city venues:

• The Eveleigh Hotel in Redfern on 31 July from
• Warren View Hotel in Enmore on 1 August
• Mary’s in Macquarie Place, Sydney on 1 August
• Cubby’s Kitchen in Sydney on 1 August
• Burrow Bar in Sydney on 1 August
• Woolworths Marrickville Metro on 2 August

As the day unfolded: Melbourne stage four business shutdown begins, Australian death toll stands at 255

Melbourne's stage four lockdown has taken effect this morning, with non-essential retail stores shut and permits required to travel to work and access childcare. Travellers from Victoria into NSW will be placed in hotel quarantine from tomorrow.

www.smh.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Feds are saying they know nothing of these numbers so must just be internal estimates

Looks like The Australian continues to misreport

Covid peak still weeks away: secret modelling
The Victorian government’s own estimates, obtained by The Australian

Murphy, Allen Cheng Deputy HO Vic and Dan Andrews have all denied that they have seen any such estimates/ modelling such as run in the media today.

 

[RooFlyer]

So where is the "modelling from, and is it meant to be an upper bound, lower bound, average etc.... Without knowing what it actually is meant to be including its assumptions, as a graph/ model it is pretty well useless.

Maybe, but no less useless than many grabs reproduced in this thread, I think! The Australian journos put their names to their stories, and while that's obviously not required here, its a point of reference to what's reported.

Maybe if Premier Andrews released the government's modelling, it would make the other stuff less credible. But no. Just like his health minister using 'under inquiry' as a reason not to answer questions put in Parliament - only to be completely slapped down by the leader of the Quarantine inquiry. No wonder its called the DPRV.

Also predicting 471 cases:


Anthony Macali
@migga

No sources given by that guy, but worthy of noting?
...

Tas Premier today on radio interview gave no good reason for stopping the lifting of Tasmania's travel restrictions to WA, SA and NT, other than "things in Victoria are developing" and "SA obviously shares a border with Victoria."

Unbelievably, we are still under a 'State of Emergency', with +3 months of zero transmissions and in that time, just the one case developed while in quarantine, and now recovered. When asked why, the reason seemed to be that it gave the 'State Controller' (the Police Commissioner') the 'powers he thinks he needs'. I'll bet! DPRT here we come.

 

[RooFlyer]

Looks like The Australian continues to misreport

'Misreport' - how? You quote that the Oz states that they've seen Vic Gov modelling. Is that incorrect? You then say that Murphy etc have said that they haven't seen the modelling reported in the Oz. Is that incorrect?

The Oz is saying that there is modelling that is different from the government's (which hasn't been made public, but which it claims to have seen). Where's the misreporting, exactly?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Looks like The Australian continues to misreport

Covid peak still weeks away: secret modelling
The Victorian government’s own estimates, obtained by The Australian

Murphy, Allen Cheng Deputy HO Vic and Dan Andrews have all denied that they have seen any such estimates/ modelling such as run in the media today.

Cynic (rhetorical). .....seen and heard are two different things

 

[lovetravellingoz]

No sources given by that guy, but worthy of noting?
.

Yes shocking of me to re-post a tweets of a prediction by the Founder of covidlive.com and a data analytics professional.

His prediction being the same number of the firt tweet I reposted. You can feel free to disregard tweets from both people if you like.

The track record of these particular tweeters in terms of accuracy have been pretty good. But people are free to make up their own mind.

As opposed to:
The Victorian government’s own estimates, obtained by The Australian

So The Australian has stated that they have actually obtained the Victorian Government estimates and modelling. As this has now been denied by the various Health Officer's today obviously The Australian must now have a huge scoop that they will publish tomorrow.

However I suspect it will go the same way as their BLM Apartment Tower Headlines. Which is complete silence from them.

 

[SydneySwan]

Maybe if Premier Andrews released the government's modelling, it would make the other stuff less credible. But no. Just like his health minister using 'under inquiry' as a reason not to answer questions put in Parliament - only to be completely slapped down by the leader of the Quarantine inquiry. No wonder its called the DPRV.

Tas Premier today on radio interview gave no good reason for stopping the lifting of Tasmania's travel restrictions to WA, SA and NT, other than "things in Victoria are developing" and "SA obviously shares a border with Victoria."

Unbelievably, we are still under a 'State of Emergency', with +3 months of zero transmissions and in that time, just the one case developed while in quarantine, and now recovered. When asked why, the reason seemed to be that it gave the 'State Controller' (the Police Commissioner') the 'powers he thinks he needs'. I'll bet! DPRT here we come.

I have become increasingly disillusioned with the leadership in both DPRV and DPRT after thinking that both were very competent when the crisis started. I used to bypass the first 10 mins of PM pressers because it was setting the scene waffle but I think Gutwein has overtaken him now and then he goes on to give flimsy justifications for decisions. Dan just seems increasingly evasive whilst claiming he answers all the questions.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Cynic (rhetorical). .....seen and heard are two different things

Pretty insulting by you of Allen Cheng and especially given Cheng's new role and area of expertise.

Why would a guy with his experience and credibility be engaged in such subterfuge?

Less than a week in and yet he is engaged in a cover up?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

'Misreport' - how?

I don't subscribed to The Australian, but the part I can see is:

Covid peak still weeks away: secret modelling
The Victorian government’s own estimates, obtained by The Australian, show the average number of new cases is not expected to decline until the last week of August


Is this accurate or not?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Also The Guardian attributes their source as The Australian.

Grim secret Victorian government modelling shows the state's COVID-19 peak is still WEEKS away with new cases to top a staggering 1,100 a day and stay above 300 until mid-September

• Confidential Victorian Government modelling has grim predictions for the state
• Documents indicate the virus won't reach its peak until the end of August
• Predicted average new cases will hit 693 by Saturday, then 700 by Sunday
• State is predicted to record average of 1,000 new cases each day for eight days
• It's predicted daily new cases will peak at 1,100 from August 17 to August 22
• There are 7,227 active cases in Victoria, 2,280 of which have no known source

By ALANA MAZZONI FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA and AAP

PUBLISHED: 03:01 AEST, 6 August 2020 | UPDATED: 07:38 AEST, 6 August 2020


Victoria's daily coronavirus cases will rise to 1,100 by the end of next week and stay at a similar level for a further eight days, according to a grim government forecast.

The Daniel Andrews government's secret modelling estimates cases will hover above 1,000 and won't fall below current levels until the end of August.
High case numbers will persist well into September and October, topping 300 a day when the state's stage four lockdown is due to end in September, according to documents leaked to The Australian.
Australians might not travel overseas for three years amid pandemic

They predict Victoria's average daily case numbers won't return to pre-second-wave levels until October at the earliest.
The state suffered its worst day of the COVID-19 outbreak on Wednesday, with 725 new cases and 15 fatalities, including Australia's youngest victim - a man in his 30s.

There are now 7,227 active cases in Victoria, 2,280 of which have no known source


If this is accurate, The Australian then when they back it up will make for interesting reading.


However no one else seems to have seen this Victorian Government modelling, and all when asked about it have directly denied its existence (and not just avoided the question).

Health minister unaware of modelling suggesting Victoria's virus peak is weeks away

www.9news.com.au