Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

Please find ten tonnes of explosive material detailed below.....

What should the plan have been IYHO & what time frames plus trigger levels?

That's a good question. It would be nice to see alternative modelling (by credible experts) and have a debate about what it would mean if the economy opened up somewhat and what restrictions would be needed to cap the new cases at 40-50 cases/day, and whether that would be acceptable.

In the current turbo-charged environment (with the number obssessed media) , it's all downside whichever decision is made.

 

[p--and--t]

Please find ten tonnes of explosive material detailed below.....

What should the plan have been IYHO & what time frames plus trigger levels?

On the flip side:

Suggest some laugh-inducing (not serious) reasons why there is no National Aged Care Covid-19 plan?

I'll be the first patsy. (for Aged care that is) Because if they had a plan it could be criticised?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qld - 2 cases linked to current outbreak. 25 or 27 active cases currently (two reports saying different numbers).

 

[p--and--t]

That's a good question. It would be nice to see alternative modelling (by credible experts) and have a debate about what it would mean if the economy opened up somewhat and what restrictions would be needed to cap the new cases at 40-50 cases/day, and whether that would be acceptable.

In the current turbo-charged environment (with the number obssessed media) , it's all downside whichever decision is made.

I think to some degree many roadmaps produced by govs (not only govs) are often constrained by preconceived ideas on what is possible and what is not. Instead of brainstorming tangential approaches that they might be fearful of electoral backlash, they stick to narrower rails.

Mere presumption on my part is anyone raising their hand at a meeting and saying put ankle bracelets on them, send repeat restriction offenders to xmas island or a quarantine hotel under guard and the like, break up couples/families, put a 24/7 guard outside a domestic dwelling to stop the spread, would have been told to get real. Picking certain industries over others to be allowed to open has an associated huge can of worms when it might have an impact on favourable press coverage, political donations et al.

So taking health advice, most probably, considering all the alternative possibilities for achieving the outcome, probably not.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Courtesy ABC Covid live blog

Brett Sutton on contact tracing
During the earlier Victorian presser, Brett Sutton engaged with the Federal Government's Sunday statement on the roadmap, which stated "restrictions are not substitutes for strengthening health systems to cope with the virus".

"It's true that neither restrictions are a substitute for contact tracing, and contact tracing is not a substitute for restrictions where they're required," Professor Sutton said.

He said South Korea, which was widely known to have "superb contact tracing", managed the pandemic with single-digit cases for months, but also introduced restrictions when a superspreading event took the pandemic beyond their control.

He said that was why the Government had laid down a threshold of an average of fewer than five daily cases by October 26.

"So the numbers seem low in terms of the threshold, but that's the threshold that makes this a sustainable level to manage ongoing, and to give us the chance of stopping community transmission as well," he said.

When asked how realistic a fortnight with no cases was by the end of November, Professor Sutton said "we'll see when we get there".

"If we see days and days with zero cases, if we see, from our sewage surveillance that it's just not being picked up across the board, then it'll be pretty clear that it's a feasible strategy and that it's one that's worth pursuit of.

"But if we have very low numbers and they are stubborn and persistent and we cannot get rid of it otherwise, but we can keep them under control, then we'll carry on with that strategy."

Professor Sutton clarified that did mean the state could consider moving to the fourth step of eased restrictions even if there were one or two cases still detected in the fortnight leading up to November 23.

"I think so. Whenever you see jurisdictions that are in the ones and twos that have days of zeros and they've got international travel closed off, then they almost invariably get to the point of zero transmission," he said.

"So if we're there, it'll be pretty clear that we can take the next step."

 

[RAM]

I'll be the first patsy. (for Aged care that is) Because if they had a plan it could be criticised?

As the 1st competitor - I'll be kind, 5 / 10 - don't give up your day job

I'll toss an entry in:

"The Fed Govt is waiting until they can try out a nursing home first hand..."

 

[drron]

Still waiting on Scott Morrison's promise made back in March - for a National Aged Care Industry Covid-19 plan - made just after Dorothy Henderson Lodge made the news.

review of dorothy henderson lodge (dhl) covid-19 outbreak
agedcare.royalcommission.gov.au › system › files › CT...
PDF
Dorothy Henderson Lodge is an 80-bed nursing home which is part of a retirement living complex operated by. BaptistCare, in Macquarie Park in northern Sydney.

Do hope it exists BEFORE I need to reside in one!

I have actually posted the link to that plan previously along with a comment on the Covid 19 plan for remote indigenous communities produced through the Hunter New England health region.Should come up on google.
The plan was updated after Newmarch house and a Victorian deputy CMO was reported in The Age as to how they were taking notice and learning from the Aged Care problems at Newmarch.Again I have previously posted a link to that article.

 

[RAM]

I have actually posted the link to that plan previously along with a comment on the Covid 19 plan for remote indigenous communities produced through the Hunter New England health region.Should come up on google.
The plan was updated after Newmarch house and a Victorian deputy CMO was reported in The Age as to how they were taking notice and learning from the Aged Care problems at Newmarch.Again I have previously posted a link to that article.

We may be talking at cross purposes.

I am refering to a comprehensive plan detailing exactly what measures needs to be taken, detailing exactly what protocols etc.

At the Aged Care Royal Commission the Federal Govt's formal written response was that no such document currently exists but is being worked upon.

Doing a search just now - I couldn't find such a document. There have been some spin but no substantive (containing meaningful detail IMHO) announcements in late August - just no document detailing exact protocols, minimum staffing levels (one registered nurse per 150 residents at night?), minimum staffing qualifications, maximum response times etc etc.

If you can provide a link to such a document that also covers at what stage a resident should be sent to hospital vs remain in place - say a checklist to replace the literally hundreds of permutations in use across Australia today - that would be helpful.

The Australian Government will scale up aged care support programs in Victoria and across Australia with an additional $171.5 million to boost a new COVID-19 response plan agreed by all states and territories at National Cabinet on 21 August 2020.Aug 26, 2020

Protecting Older Australians: COVID-19 update 26 August 2020

Talks about providing a 'task force' of professionals - just no protocols for how they will operate etc. Scaling up sounds good but unless there is set protocols that will be scaled up then simply thowing money is not satisfactory. After all the Federal Govt promised in March that they had massive professional staff in reserve if needed. When two NSW nursing homes requested help - it turned out there were no professional staff resources in existence from the Federal Govt (Aged Care Royal Commission Fed Heath Dept emails).

Curiously enough the link to the details produces on this August 26th update produces this:

A statement released by AHPPC on 22 August 2020 identifies a number of key national statements and guidelines reviewed and endorsed by the AHPPC relating to aged care.

Clicking on the 'statement' produces "Page not found". Pretty much says it all.

If you can post a current link for the National Aged Care Covid-19 policy and protocols for responding - I'll be eternally grateful!

 

[Pushka]

So now the woman who travelled with young cousins into Adelaide from Melbourne on Thursday on her way to Alice Springs, without clearance and who tested positive Saturday without symptoms, is now considered recovered and negative and is still in quarantine with the other family. She has not been charged. She is not paying for their quarantine.

So many missing bits in this jigsaw.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

More offenders/protesters perhaps....clickbait journalism???

Police surround elderly woman, snatch mobile phone

Dramatic footage has captured a bizarre stand-off between five police officers and two elderly women sitting on a Melbourne park bench.

www.news.com.au

 

[RooFlyer]

Please find ten tonnes of explosive material detailed below.....

What should the plan have been IYHO & what time frames plus trigger levels?

Sure, give me the resources of the Victorian government, a few weeks and I'll gladly give you a plan. . Or maybe the Vic plan was a quickie back-of-the-envelope job, which would put them and your challenge on an equal basis?

 

[drron]

We may be talking at cross purposes.

I am refering to a comprehensive plan detailing exactly what measures needs to be taken, detailing exactly what protocols etc.

At the Aged Care Royal Commission the Federal Govt's formal written response was that no such document currently exists but is being worked upon.

Doing a search just now - I couldn't find such a document. There have been some spin but no substantive (containing meaningful detail IMHO) announcements in late August - just no document detailing exact protocols, minimum staffing levels (one registered nurse per 150 residents at night?), minimum staffing qualifications, maximum response times etc etc.

If you can provide a link to such a document that also covers at what stage a resident should be sent to hospital vs remain in place - say a checklist to replace the literally hundreds of permutations in use across Australia today - that would be helpful.

The Australian Government will scale up aged care support programs in Victoria and across Australia with an additional $171.5 million to boost a new COVID-19 response plan agreed by all states and territories at National Cabinet on 21 August 2020.Aug 26, 2020
Protecting Older Australians: COVID-19 update 26 August 2020

Talks about providing a 'task force' of professionals - just no protocols for how they will operate etc. Scaling up sounds good but unless there is set protocols that will be scaled up then simply thowing money is not satisfactory. After all the Federal Govt promised in March that they had massive professional staff in reserve if needed. When two NSW nursing homes requested help - it turned out there were no professional staff resources in existence from the Federal Govt (Aged Care Royal Commission Fed Heath Dept emails).

Then you need to read the 2 independent reports on the Newmarch house outbreak.They were asked on the first day whether they needed extra help and they said no.it wasn't until 8 days in that they asked and the position was then dire so took a little while to get the numbers.The Newmarch house on site management was replaced.Again I have previously linked to them
The earlier NSW Aged care outbreak was well managed with minimal mortality.Both were under control of the Nepean heath districts Hospital in the Home service.This was in line with the Commonwealth plan for aged care that it was the State Health Departments who should take control of the health aspects of any outbreak as they had the hospitals and staff.
The Commonwealth did contract aged care staff to help in any outbreaks.The Commonwealth also agreed to supply Aged Care PPE out of their stockpile.They provided what they thought to be a reasonable supply to Newmarch house but the Inquities were told that Newmarch were overusing PPE to the extent of 8 times over predicted needs.

 

[dajop]

More ... protesters perhaps...

Reading the full article, that was the strong implication, without stating it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Roadmap to recovery (Victoria): tracking triggers

 

[kyle]

I note that the plan was produced using the resources of Monash Uni, The Uni of New England and the Peter Doherty Institute. They have significantly more experience and knowledge in the area than I so will not make a unilateral judgement that I know better than them.

So why would she say that after the plan came out?

Jodie McVernon, director of epidemiology at Melbourne's Doherty Institute:
"If they were [a hard target], I would be very concerned that we might never reach them.
"I think getting down to an average of five cases over 14 days, I think that is a very stringent target."

"I would really be expecting that we will have a much more nuanced discussion about it and those numbers are a goal."

 

[p--and--t]

So why would she say that after the plan came out?

Jodie McVernon, director of epidemiology at Melbourne's Doherty Institute:
"If they were [a hard target], I would be very concerned that we might never reach them.
"I think getting down to an average of five cases over 14 days, I think that is a very stringent target."

"I would really be expecting that we will have a much more nuanced discussion about it and those numbers are a goal."

I think you answered your own question with the first line you quoted. Both the Premier and the CMO have indicated if things improve the timeline will move. Nothing is locked in, people wanted a plan they produced one. A quote from the Premier the restrictions will not stay one day more than they are needed.

 

[kyle]

I think you answered your own question with the first line you quoted. Both the Premier and the CMO have indicated if things improve the timeline will move. Nothing is locked in, people wanted a plan they produced one. A quote from the Premier the restrictions will not stay one day more than they are needed.

Not quite. She sounded like what was discussed and what came out on Sunday was different as the Sunday announcement was more strict.

 

[drron]

I think you answered your own question with the first line you quoted. Both the Premier and the CMO have indicated if things improve the timeline will move. Nothing is locked in, people wanted a plan they produced one. A quote from the Premier the restrictions will not stay one day more than they are needed.

But even one of the modellers of the exit from lockdown plan admits the modelling is not exact.


"You can’t argue with this sort of data," the Premier said. "You can’t argue with science."

Of course you can. Particularly science of this kind.

Melbourne University epidemiologist Tony Blakely, one of the co-authors of the government modelling Andrews cited, describes his work as highly stochastic. This means that, although it can statistically analyse the probability of something happening, it isn’t predictive.

It is also inexact.

Andrews extends lockdown on a best guess

In charting Victoria's path out of COVID-19 restrictions, the Premier has largely ignored voices from the business world.

www.theage.com.au

And on Sky news he said this-
University of Melbourne Epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely, who did the modelling, said the model could be beaten. “If we do our contact tracing better than we did three months ago, the contact tracers may be able to hold the case count without it going up again as badly as our model suggests,” Professor Blakely said.

Epidemiologists ‘sceptical’ of Andrews’ modelling

Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell says many epidemiologists are sceptical of the University of Melbourne modelling that underpins the Victorian government’s COVID-19 response.

www.skynews.com.au

He also went on to say if Victoria got it's act together on infection control in it's hospitals and aged care facilities things wouldn't be as bad.Pretty devastating criticism coming from an epidemiologist.

Then on Twitter another epidemiologist and infectious disease physician.

Peter Collignon

@CollignonPeter
·
21h

Victoria seems to have ongoing issue with finalising contact tracing and identifying in timely fashion (within 48hrs) close contacts of those infected or where people acquired their infection from. This relatively poor contact tracing will make Steps out of lockdown difficult.
https://twitter.com/CollignonPeter/status/1302751992683536384/photo/1

 

[SydneySwan]

But even one of the modellers of the exit from lockdown plan admits the modelling is not exact.

Melbourne University epidemiologist Tony Blakely, one of the co-authors of the government modelling Andrews cited, describes his work as highly stochastic. This means that, although it can statistically analyse the probability of something happening, it isn’t predictive.

It is also inexact.

Absolutely agree. My economics teacher always reinforced the point that economics is not an exact science but a blend of science and art and so dependent on assumptions about so many things (including things you don't even realise that you are assuming!). Scientific modelling attempting to show the impact of various measures on a pandemic is similar.

 

[Pushka]

Absolutely agree. My economics teacher always reinforced the point that economics is not an exact science but a blend of science and art and so dependent on assumptions about so many things (including things you don't even realise that you are assuming!). Scientific modelling attempting to show the impact of various measures on a pandemic is similar.

And original modelling back in February predicted thousands of Australian deaths but did not factor in social distancing and shut downs into the mix. It was simply designed to show potentials if nothing was done. Suited the purpose to get action happening but not suitable for purpose once action had been taken.