Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

SA has opened up criteria for testing with anyone with just a symptom, even if mild, to come forward for testing. Zero cases today. Ruby might have released us from her tentacles at last.

 

[RooFlyer]

Tassie only 3 cases after their recent spike.

Cross fingers, but after the 15 yesterday, we can only hope ...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Cross fingers, but after the 15 yesterday, we can only hope ...

Yes if some of the cluster are still contagious, and you would think that some would have been, it may still be generating new cases for a little bit yet.


I still think by end of April that our local transmissions per day are going to be very low on a national basis.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[OZDUCK]

So 8 new cases in the last 2 days in W.A. and 6 of them are from Cruise ships. The W.A. Police Commissioner had a few interesting things to say (But don't tell Renato! Our State Rules are different to NSW or Vic. so of no relevance to those states enforcement actions.) :-

"So, it's very important we don't over-enforce, and a good example would be, for instance, with the beaches, we had a hot weekend and I made it clear and the officers carried out their jobs very professionally.

"We didn't slap infringement notices and close beaches unnecessarily, we allowed the community to go about, I think, a really healthy exercise and recreate, because you can't keep people in homes non-stop."

WA schools' term two details to be revealed as Government plans post-coronavirus recovery

The plan for term two schooling in Western Australia will be unveiled tomorrow, with the WA Government saying it will take a "careful, considered and cautious" approach as it begins to map out the long road back to pre-coronavirus normalcy.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Pushka]

Just 1 in SA. None yesterday. Will be interesting to see how the next few weeks pan out.

 

[drron]

Well my investigations have not turned up anyone who believes the doctor's dinner party story.Though several have suggested it stems from a work meeting of health care workers outside the hospital.But definitely nothing definite.Pointed out that the first cases in Tasmania of possible community spread was in Devonport at the beginning of March.Devonport is only ~ 40Km from Burnie.However as I said before the first death in Tasmania was a Ruby Princess passenger in the NWRH the day after the Devonport cases were revealed.

Now a little extra on Australian research taken from a newsletter from Sydney Uni.Though a not heavily disguised plea for donations.

Blood test could help health system identify most at risk COVID 19 patients

Researchers from the University of Sydney have launched a giving appeal to support the development of a biomarker blood test which aims to provide vital information to help doctors triage COVID-19 patients.

www.sydney.edu.au

Time is now to prepare for the next coronavirus outbreak

Professor Edward Holmes from the University of Sydney helped map the COVID-19 virus genome. In a wide-ranging interview he issues a call to action to limit the impact of this coronavirus and prepare for any future outbreaks.

www.sydney.edu.au

US COVID-19 deaths poorly predicted by IHME model

An international group of renowned statisticians from the University of Sydney, Northwestern University and the University of Texas have collaborated to fully investigate the predictive performance of the COVID-19 model developed by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) – which...

www.sydney.edu.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It looks like new cases today will only be in the twenties. If this trend downwards continues and almost zero, or zero local transmission occurs (ie ignore cases from overseas who will be in quarantine but can happen anytime a new planeload flies in) then from sometime in May we should be in position to in stages start re-activate things, and in particular with the priority being:

• Jobs (those that require close contact may take a little while longer - we need to get people working again.
• Health care - we need to keep all of our population healthy.

Social distancing, caps on numbers of people per room size, handwashing etc to all be required etc etc.

But also and perhaps after the above two are ramped up more of what we like to do, but do not need to do:

• Sport without spectators
• More leisure activities
• Social gatherings up to a certain size

Plus some easing on the numbers that can attend funerals, weddings etc.

Then later and with reduced people on premises restaurant cafes etc.

Mass gatherings will still be a no, no, for some time. (ie large random groups as contact tracing if required is problematic). Sport, movie theatres, live theatre etc. The bigger and more random the crowd, the longer before it can happen again.

Though this too could be in stages. ie Live shows capped at certain numbers and where all audience members must be recorded to attend.


Again just to emphasise. The reactivation would be in stages and not all at once.


The other thing to progressively relaxed would be travel restrictions both intra and interstate. First business, but then holiday travel to be allowed.

 

[tgh]

The problem with LTO's post is that the media will soon start stirring folks up for open slather.
Given the seriousness of it all.. perhaps some controls are in order.
If we are all out and about , quietly thoughtfully and carefully in a month or so.. we will be the envy of the whole world who will still be buried in the quagmire.

 

[Pushka]

The problem with LTO's post is that the media will soon start stirring folks up for open slather.
Given the seriousness of it all.. perhaps some controls are in order.
If we are all out and about , quietly thoughtfully and carefully in a month or so.. we will be the envy of the whole world who will still be buried in the quagmire.

I think it's hard for Joe Average, who has lost their job/business to wonder what the heck just happened.

 

[moa999]

Health release on the hardcore mathematical modelling.
On the symptomatic detected rate we rate the highest among over 40 countries.

Modelling the current impact of COVID-19 in Australia

This presentation outlines how the next phase of modelling will help to establish the current state of the epidemic. Known as 'nowcasting', the modelling uses real Australian data from the last 14 days to forecast what the next 14 days will bring.

www.health.gov.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The problem with LTO's post is that the media will soon start stirring folks up for open slather.
Given the seriousness of it all.. perhaps some controls are in order.
If we are all out and about , quietly thoughtfully and carefully in a month or so.. we will be the envy of the whole world who will still be buried in the quagmire.

Yes some controls are important. That way if there is a hidden few infections somewhere it will not just ignite everything again.

With a sensible approach the Anzacs can both start to get used to a new, but ok, normal. Though the AFFers will all be hungering for that long haul international flight for some time yet.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ah, the Tassie figures have now come in with a late spike of 11 cases. I assume related to the hospital flare up and if so this could spike for another ten days or so yet.

33 new cases for today is the amended total

 

[Pushka]

Ah, the Tassie figures have now come in with a late spike of 11 cases. I assume related to the hospital flare up and if so this could spike for another ten days or so yet.

33 new cases for today is the amended total

Is the Tasmania outbreak a real trouble spot? I see the worker has also worked in three aged care homes now.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Is the Tasmania outbreak a real trouble spot? I see the worker has also worked in three aged care homes now.

Well like you I have no real knowledge as I am not involved.

But I do have faith in our authorities to contact trace and quarantine/self-isolate all possible infections as in the main they have been doing this very well throughout Australia. So you would guess that all possible infected people will be isolated to halt the spread, and that there will also be a fair amount of testing going on to see how much it has spread.

So the big question will be if any possible infected people had travelled further afield (identifying these all being part of the contact tracing efforts). One can guess that the number of such should be small as most were not moving around much in recent times. The travel restrictions having been put in place to stop hotspots like these spreading rapidly to other areas.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Plus some easing on the numbers that can attend funerals, weddings etc.

Well maybe no unless strict measures are in force and in particular no wedding reception.

I was just listening to some UK epidemiologists discussing the possible infection rates from various types of gatherings and size of gatherings.

Size, as in number of people, is not the most important factor. It is more how much mixing with close/physical contact that occurs amongst the attendees combined with duration that is important.

Traditional weddings are deemed to be amongst the worst gatherings due to:

• The high mixing and close touching amongst virtually all attendees. ie shaking and holding hands, embracing, dancing, kissing (cheeks etc).
• Close contact
• Long duration. With the wedding and reception combining to be an extended exposure time.

Which is why weddings have shown up as hotspots.

There was also quite a deal of discussion on simply how effective social distancing has proven to be including that the original modelling underestimated this principally as no one really thought that people would embrace en masse it as effectively as they have.

Which reinforces the importance of social (physical) distancing in combatting CV 19.

 

[drron]

Here is the local news of the Tassie NW cluster.

Three NW aged care facilities may have been exposed

"Any resident or staff member displaying symptoms will be tested as a priority."

www.theadvocate.com.au

So 5 of the 6 Tassie deaths are in the North West.At least 3 though from the Ruby Princess.

But at least scrubs and masks now being made locally.

Spreyton factory making masks

Spreyton clothing manufacturer helps meet high demand for scrubs and masks.

www.theadvocate.com.au

 

[drron]

So one of the new Tassie cases yesterday was from Southern tasmania.The rest from the North West.
"Public Health Director Mark Veitch said 10 of the new cases were from the North-West and one was from the South. "

Of the 11 new cases Dr Veitch said two continued to be investigated.
"Three of these are staff members of the NWRH and/or the North West Private Hospital," he said.
"Four are close contacts of a previously confirmed case linked to the North West outbreak. Two cases are patients in the Mersey Community Hospital who were previously in the NWRH."

Person with coronavirus worked at three nursing homes

Tasmania has recorded 11 more coronavirus cases and the Public Health Service is working with three nursing homes...

www.examiner.com.au

 

[RooFlyer]

But I do have faith in our authorities to contact trace and quarantine/self-isolate all possible infections as in the main they have been doing this very well throughout Australia. So you would guess that all possible infected people will be isolated to halt the spread, and that there will also be a fair amount of testing going on to see how much it has spread.

They hit the quarantine/isolation button hard in NW Tas three days ago when they closed the hospitals - about a thousand people, maybe more; basically all the employees of the hospitals, and their families, plus of course the contacts of those infected, as usual. Previously they isolated anyone who was a 'close contact' within 24 hrs of signs of infection, a while back they had increased that to two days.

They also ramped up the testing which, to date, has been the lowest rate of testing of any state. Also shut down non essential businesses, like Bunnings etc.

So one of the new Tassie cases yesterday was from Southern tasmania.

It would be good to know where in Southern Tasmania the recent few cases have come from.

 

[tgh]

Perhaps we can repurpose Tasmania as a quarantine outpost .. that would give it a raison d'etre...
Tasmania already has some older facilities that could be upgraded.
Hobart airport could be repurposed as our only International point of entry… 20 days quarantine on arrival and then a short sea trip under observation to get to the mainland..
Bass strait is a windy tunnel that would keep all the bugs away from the mainland.

Seems an entirely useful idea…..