Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I agree! But 'Hobart International Airport' can't handle international arrivals. No Border Force or even Federal Police (Federal Police should have been at HBA even in its domestic capacity, but the Feds withdrew the Federal Police from there about 3 years ago. Apparently we are too nice to have a serious incident at the airport. ). I think the Tas govt has been angling with the Feds recently to supply these, so we can take some international quarantinees. With the possibility of NZ arrivals, I'd hope they are redoubling those efforts.

There is a convenient, pretty new hotel right at HBA, away from anywhere else.

Is this the same new hotel??


Emails reveal how Hobart's Crowne Plaza imported tradies amid lockdown ahead of grand opening

The head of Tasmania's powerful hospitality body spoke directly with one of the Premier's advisers the day the state's borders closed with an "urgent" request to allow interstate tradies to avoid quarantine so they could finish a multi-million-dollar Hobart hotel.

Tasmanian Hospitality Association (THA) head Steve Old told attendees of Crowne Plaza's grand opening on July 1 his contact book had helped ensure the 235-room development could open its doors on time.

Documents released under Right to Information (RTI) laws reveal Mr Old was in contact with Premier Peter Gutwein's principal economic adviser Tony Mayell requesting help the same day the closure of the state's borders was announced.

"As discussed … [redacted] has fly in, fly out tradies working on Crowne Plaza," the email read.

"She needs an email stating they are OK to come back and work next week. Urgent "

Mr Mayell responded within an hour that he was "confident that the query re FIFOs is going to be answered the way you want".

Later that evening, Mr Mayell told Mr Old that no-one could allow workers into the state until the department had finalised its entry criteria.

He goes on to explain that the head of the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment Tim Baker would be authorised to allow essential workers in, based on the criteria.

"I intend having a conversation with him [Mr Baker] as soon as the criteria are signed off," the documents show.
To which Mr Old offered: "Let me know Tony if you need me to speak to Tim Baker."

By 10:13pm that night Mr Mayell emailed Mr Old:

"Mate this is even beyond my wildest dreams — won't say any more but let's talk tomorrow."

The ABC asked the State Government whether Mr Old and Kalis Group had received favourable treatment to which a spokesman said: "No".

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

WA no new cases, 17 active remaining.

 

[Pushka]

I wonder if Victoria will ever get below 5? It just seems to keep bubbling away.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I wonder if Victoria will ever get below 5? It just seems to keep bubbling away.

The clock starts today (ie 14 days before the 18th or 19th, which is the date Vic indicates Step 3 Melbourne review).

They logged in 2 or 3 mystery cases today, so indirectly a good way to clear the decks.

At present, to go to Step 3 Melbourne, the requirement is under 5 Statewide 14 day rolling average and under 5 mystery cases Statewide over the previous 14 days.

Last 4 days - 15, 7, 8 and 12 - doesn’t bode well.

There has been rumours of allowing Step 3 if say most of the cases are in care.....but who knows?

 

[dajop]

There has been rumours of allowing Step 3 if say most of the cases are in care.....but who knows?

This is not really a rumour, Brett Sutton has stated on several times that it will depend on the story behind the number, and as a result there may be some flexibility around the target of 5 cases average over 14 days. With mystery cases though, the story is not necessarily a good one.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

SA 1 new case from international quarantine, which is the 1 active case remaining.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

This is not really a rumour, Brett Sutton has stated on several times that it will depend on the story behind the number, and as a result there may be some flexibility around the target of 5 cases average over 14 days. With mystery cases though, the story is not necessarily a good one.

Yes true. Probably a poor choice of word by me. I feel it’s a vague concept.

Do you recall any examples of what might be sufficient on the 14-day average side?

 

[RooFlyer]

Is this the same new hotel??

No, that's down-town. I was talking about the Travelodge Hotel Hobart Airport, which is on the airport boundary with nothing nearby except a petrol station. The story you quote was pumped and pumped by the ABC but didn't get anywhere. Essentially they were implying corruption by the State Police Commissioner in his role as State Controller; it was in reality a few minor functionaries big-noting themselves.

Reminds me, I must post my review of the Crowne Plaza.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Cases again are mainly in the S/SE.



Salient parts of today's Vic DHHS Report:

Media Release
04 October 2020

Victoria has recorded 12 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,209.

Six of today’s 12 new cases have been linked to known outbreaks or complex cases. Three are linked to the Butcher Club–Chadstone Shopping Centre outbreak and three are linked to the Electra Park Medical Centre in Ashwood. The other six cases remain under investigation.

Of today’s 12 new cases, there are four cases in Monash and single cases in Boroondara, Glen Eira, Greater Dandenong, Melton, Whitehorse, Wyndham, Yarra Ranges and Mitchell Shire.

There has been one new death from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. A man aged in his 80s

Today’s death is linked to a known aged care facility outbreak. To date, 806 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

The average number of cases diagnosed in the last 14 days for metropolitan Melbourne is 11.9 and regional Victoria is 0.2. The rolling daily average case number is calculated by averaging out the number of new cases over the past 14 days.

The total number of cases from an unknown source in the last 14 days is 13 for metropolitan Melbourne and zero for regional Victoria. The 14-day period for the source of acquisition data ends 48 hours earlier than the 14-day period used to calculate the new case average due to the time required to fully investigate a case and assign its mode of acquisition.

....

Non-aged care outbreaks with the highest number of active cases include:

• 20 active cases are currently linked to The Butcher Club–Chadstone outbreak (total cases: 20)
• 6 active cases are currently linked to the Springvale shared accommodation outbreak (total cases: 8)
• 6 active cases are currently linked to Electra Park Medical Centre Ashwood (total cases: 6)
• 4 active cases are currently linked to Alfred Hospital (total cases: 12)
• 3 active cases are currently linked to the Casey community outbreak (total cases: 45)
• 3 active cases are currently linked to Western Health Sunshine (total cases: 3)

Full report at Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus update for Victoria - Sunday 4 October

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes true. Probably a poor choice of word by me. I feel it’s a vague concept.

Do you recall any examples of what might be sufficient on the 14-day average side?

It is probably vague, because it will depend on the actual make up of cases in the 14 day period about to start. Sutton discussed that today. ie Some settings are likely to generated more cases than others.

As dajop indicated Sutton has said it is the story behind the cases. Essentially if I have understood his intent it is how contained the cases are. ie How likely they are to generate new cases, and in particular new transmission chains. They want confidence that if they ease restrictions and allow more mixing (cafes, in-house, more people working) thata new surge will not just start again.

So for example if they were all in Aged Care ( His example) they would be reasonably confident cases would continue to shrink. So one factor is whether it is just existing clusters that while generating new cases will become inactive as spread is unlikely.

He has also alluded to Mystery Cases needing to be under control. ie With the source of the new cases being unknown, future transmission is also unknown.


On the other hand (my example) if the cases are randomly spread in different cohorts and locations then they would have a lot less confidence that transmission would not accelerate with eased restrictions and hence originally declared targets are more likely to be adhered to.

As an example (mine again) one cleaner from Frankston who should have been isolating has generated 20 cases so far in the Butcher Club Cluster (quite likely to grow more as with many workers infected it will be likely that they have infected their own families, as well as others). The Butcher Club may have generated cases in the coffee shop, and perhaps. Plus at Chadstone there have been infected people shopping at Chadstone. Without restrictions there could have been a major surge generated via Chadstone.

The more such cases there are, the more you imagine that the restrictions would not be eased.

 

[oznflfan]

I wonder if Victoria will ever get below 5? It just seems to keep bubbling away.

I want to use some QFF points to fly to Melbourne for Prelim Finals weekend 2021 (when dates get announced), however will probably still be arrested/fined Sept 2021 for being out in daylight hours for not one of the four reasons.

 

[jakeseven7]

I want to use some QFF points to fly to Melbourne for Prelim Finals weekend 2021 (when dates get announced), however will probably still be arrested/fined Sept 2021 for being out in daylight hours for not one of the four reasons.

A lot of us have tickets (Via Corporate boxes) to the Aus Open next year so hoping it’s well under control by then!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A lot of us have tickets (Via Corporate boxes) to the Aus Open next year so hoping it’s well under control by then!

Well its too costly for it to be covered by pandemic insurance for 2021

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ok, some more precise data on the unknown (mystery) Victorian cases per day recently. This has been unknown (excuse the pun!) for some time as it was only being released as a rolling 14 day figure.

This allows us to see the effect on any new cases on the rolling 14 day trigger.

This table just below shows two main groups of unknown cases of 8 unknown cases over 3 days, and then 4 over 3 days.

So if no new mystery cases after today, then the 14 day trigger will stay ay 13 for two more days then drop to 12. On Oct 8th it will drop to 4 (ie under the trigger). Then on Oct 15th to zero. Now if there are additional cases the trigger may well go up until that bulge of 8 cases is passed.

However in recent days there has been 4 cases in 3 days, and so hence one can more understand Sutton's comments earlier today at the presser.

Now as the trigger for 19th would be on 14 days prior to that it is the next 14 days which will determine the trigger for that date. But the per day mystery cases below to flag how the "comfort" of Vic Officials has probably shifted from being more buoyant several days back, to being more cautious now

For a trigger of less than 5 over 14 days, that is say 1 case every 3 days. The last 7 days have had 4 cases and so we we need to do about half of that.







Unknown cases (remember the 48 hr lag for classifying) were announced today as being 13.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Ok, some more precise data on the unknown (mystery) Victorian cases per day recently. This has been unknown (excuse the pun!) for some time as it was only being released as a rolling 14 day figure.

This allows us to see the effect on any new cases on the rolling 14 day trigger.

This table just below shows two main groups of unknown cases of 8 unknown cases over 3 days, and then 4 over 3 days.

So if no new mystery cases after today, then the 14 day trigger will stay ay 13 for two more days then drop to 12. On Oct 8th it will drop to 4 (ie under the trigger). Then on Oct 15th to zero. Now if there are additional cases the trigger may well go up until that bulge of 8 cases is passed.

However in recent days there has been 4 cases in 3 days, and so hence one can more understand Sutton's comments earlier today at the presser.

Now as the trigger for 19th would be on 14 days prior to that it is the next 14 days which will determine the trigger for that date. But the per day mystery cases below to flag how the "comfort" of Vic Officials has probably shifted from being more buoyant several days back, to being more cautious now

For a trigger of less than 5 over 14 days, that is say 1 case every 3 days. The last 7 days have had 4 cases and so we we need to do about half of that.



View attachment 229438



Unknown cases (remember the 48 hr lag for classifying) were announced today as being 13.

View attachment 229439

The Victorian CHO twitter graphic was useful.

Wonder why I can’t see it on Twitter now.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The Victorian CHO twitter graphic was useful.

Wonder why I can’t see it on Twitter now.

Still there. Note that it the CHO replying to, not starting, a tweet. There seems a good chance that covidlive may be able to start including this data on their daily updates.

See

https://twitter.com/x/status/1312700083113127937

 

[drron]

Seems the virus is having an effect on Melbourne apartments.
.

 

[Pushka]

Seems the virus is having an effect on Melbourne apartments.
View attachment 229444.

I'm assuming there can't be any new inspections and therefore new occupations while all the restrictions are in place so there is not a normal rental cycle at the moment. Hasn't been for months in Victoria. Not feeling sorry for all the Property Management people given their track record (IME) with attending registered open inspections. Must be killing owners though.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm assuming there can't be any new inspections and therefore new occupations while all the restrictions are in place so there is not a normal rental cycle at the moment. Hasn't been for months in Victoria. Not feeling sorry for all the Property Management people given their track record (IME) with attending registered open inspections. Must be killing owners though.

Now you can move. My daughter moved into a new rental.

It is more that people have lost their jobs.

Many have moved back in with relatives.

Others have moved to rural Vic...in part as rent is cheaper there. Also some work from home if possible allows it to be from rural locations.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1312876076146847748