Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

Was over 50 but a bunch of sub-clusters in that.

Believe the detailed testing showed the Thai Rock outbreaks were distinct.

Interesting how NSW seems to be getting more than its fair share of positives from overseas returnees. Wonder if it's related to where flights are coming from.

I remember when SA had around 300 arrivals a few weeks ago we were told to expect 25 positives in the batch. From India. But only 3 and they recovered quickly being young. That low number helped the nervous nellies.

Now are flights seem to be from Doha and Singapore and usually just one or two each batch.

 

[serfty]

Starting to feel like we're never going to get on top of this...

Don't feel that way

There is going to be a bumpy and jumpy tail according to all the medical experts. They say when the numbers are so very very low, you obviously only need a handful to bump the number up the wrong way. When the numbers are as low as they are in VIC now, they will be looking at the composition of the numbers rather than the absolute.

Plus one case has already been reclassified so its 14

2 actually, so 13

To make the 5- average mark for Oct 19 we in metro Melbourne had a budget of 70 new cases for the 14 days left (includes today).

That 13 means we now have have a budget of 57 new cases for the remaining 13 days.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I keep seeing the Butcher Club reference and thought it might be some kind of bar but it’s a butcher?

The is no truth to the rumour that The Australian was about to publish this pic as breaking news





So it is....



and not.....

How have customers been infected because contact at butchers is hardly a prolonged Event?

Maybe they were chatty customers?

You know the ones that I often seem to get stuck behind and take an age to get served.

Some people go shopping to fill in their day and will want to go through what is available, how is your day, how they should cook things etc...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

To make the 5- average mark for Oct 19 we in metro Melbourne have a budget of 70 new case for the 14 days left (includes today).

That means we now have have a budget of 57 new cases for the remaining 13 days.

Yes though there are two triggers, and it is the second trigger which is the one they will probably give the greater weight to especially as they have flagged that they will look at the narrative (meaning how likely it is that infections could still occur outside of known clusters) and not just the numbers.

At least with the community spread trigger there has been no new unknown community (mystery) cases (Note this is lagged by 48hrs) and so that is still at 0 (assuming the 14 day period that they look to when they make their decision will be 3 to 16th Oct inclusive ).

The last 9 have been promising in that mystery cases have either been zero or a maximum of 1. However 4 cases in 9 days projected up to 14 is 6 cases, and so we need a better performance that over the last 9 days.

 

[Hvr]

And another Butcher that got banned!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

View attachment 229549


And another Butcher that got banned!

Well it seems that while they did not go with that cover, that the Covid 19 theme was maintained as it featured a case.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes though there are two triggers, and it is the second trigger which is the one they will probably give the greater weight to especially as they have flagged that they will look at the narrative (meaning how likely it is that infections could still occur outside of known clusters) and not just the numbers.

At least with the community spread trigger there has been no new unknown community (mystery) cases (Note this is lagged by 48hrs) and so that is still at 0 (assuming the 14 day period that they look to when they make their decision will be 3 to 16th Oct inclusive ).

The last 9 have been promising in that mystery cases have either been zero or a maximum of 1. However 4 cases in 9 days projected up to 14 is 6 cases, and so we need a better performance that over the last 9 days.

View attachment 229548

View attachment 229547

Dr Young will be breaking into a sweat, her border clock for VIC is at day 3 again

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just double checked:

Crossroads got to 58
Thai Rock Wetherill Park was at least 107, but haven’t checked that one as thoroughly

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It just occurred to me that I think about 2/3 of Melbourne school students went back to classrooms today.

Anyone notice much difference in movement?

 

[dajop]

It just occurred to me that I think about 2/3 of Melbourne school students went back to classrooms today.

Anyone notice much difference in movement?

12 October:

Term 4 arrangements in schools

www.education.vic.gov.au

 

[Hvr]

Well it seems that while they did not go with that cover, that the Covid 19 theme was maintained as it featured a case.

Well it definitely wasn't Victorian then.

 

[jakeseven7]

Pleased to inform you that the Dr Young border clock for NSW has been modified on the run (again) and will now take into account NSW testing rates and their sewerage analysis results as well, in addition to 28 days of no mystery cases that need to be in synch with QLD's monthly meeting for them to be considered (because QLD can only meet monthly).

Apologies on behalf of QLD for the ongoing and unsupported changes. NSW needs to learn to jump higher and harder to the tune of Dr Young, she's the boss of you all now.


Dozens of Sydney suburbs on alert as virus found in sewage


Dozens of Sydney suburbs have been put on high alert as fragments of COVID-19 was detected during surveillance of Sydney’s sewage.

Dr Richard Broome, acting executive director from Health Protection NSW said recovered cases can continue to “shed” the virus for up to four weeks

NSW needs 28 consecutive days of no cases of community transmission before Queensland’s Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk will consider reopening the border to NSW. However, the Premier has also said testing rates and sewage analysis would now be taken into consideration.

Virus fears at Sydney restaurant

NSW Health have sounded the alarm over an Italian restaurant on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

www.news.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Today's Vic DHHS Report in part.. my bolding
Media Release
06 October 2020

We are stepping up engagement throughout Chadstone Shopping Centre following an outbreak linked to the Butcher Club - door knocking shops within the centre. We have also set up a new pop-up testing site in Kilmore following a related outbreak at the Oddfellows Café in Kilmore.

“We need to ensure these numbers don't get any higher, so I would call on anyone who was at the shopping centre between 23 September and October 1 to get tested if you have even the mildest of symptoms,” Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton said.

“Anyone who visited Oddfellows Café in Kilmore between 30 September and 3 October are classified as potential close contacts and should come forward for testing, even if you don't have any symptoms at all.

“We have a shared responsibility to do what we can to stop this outbreak from getting any bigger.

“And if you have a permitted reason to travel from metropolitan Melbourne to regional Victoria, please remember the current restrictions in Melbourne follow you into regional Victoria. That means take away only from cafes and restaurants.”

Testing is available at:

• The Kilmore and District Memorial Hospital, Anderson Rd, Kilmore, 9am-7pm. Drive-through site - residents can call to make a booking.
• Kilmore Soldiers Memorial Hall pop up testing site, 4pm-7pm today and 10am-6pm tomorrow. Hours Thursday to Sunday to be confirmed
• Chadstone Shopping Centre Level 2 carpark outside Coles and Chadstone staff only walk through open today and tomorrow from midday until 8pm

Victoria has recorded 15 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,233.
The overall total has increased by 13 due to two cases being reclassified.

Eight of today’s 15 new cases have been linked to known outbreaks or are linked to a complex case. Three are linked to the Chadstone Shopping Centre (The Butcher Club) outbreak, two are linked to Estia Keilor, with single cases linked to Embracia Moonee Valley, the Oddfellows Café in Kilmore and a complex case. The other seven cases remain under investigation.

Of today’s 15 new cases, there are
- three cases in Greater Dandenong and Wyndham,
- two cases in Brimbank and Frankston
- and single cases in Darebin, Melbourne, Moonee Valley, Moreland and Mitchell. ( My Comment is a Regional Case)

The positive case reported in Greater Shepparton yesterday has now been removed after follow-up testing and further investigation indicated it is a false positive.

There has been one new death from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. One woman in her 90s. The death occurred prior to yesterday.
Today’s death is linked to a known aged care facility outbreak. To date, 807 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

....


Non-aged care outbreaks with the highest number of active cases include:

• 27 active cases are currently linked to the Chadstone Shopping Centre (The Butcher Club) outbreak (total cases: 28)
• 6 active cases are currently linked to Electra Park Medical Centre Ashwood (total cases: 6)
• 5 active cases are currently linked to the Springvale shared accommodation outbreak (total cases: 8)
• 3 active cases are currently linked to Alfred Hospital (total cases: 12)
• 3 active cases are currently linked to Western Health Sunshine (total cases: 3)

Full report at Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus update for Victoria - Tuesday 6 October

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It just occurred to me that I think about 2/3 of Melbourne school students went back to classrooms today.

Anyone notice much difference in movement?

No, but then I am not out and about...but most certainly there will have been.

 

[james4321]

Pleased to inform you that the Dr Young border clock for NSW has been modified on the run (again) and will now take into account NSW testing rates and their sewerage analysis results as well, in addition to 28 days of no mystery cases that need to be in synch with QLD's monthly meeting for them to be considered (because QLD can only meet monthly).

Apologies on behalf of QLD for the ongoing and unsupported changes. NSW needs to learn to jump higher and harder to the tune of Dr Young, she's the boss of you all now.

Good to see QLD authorities reacting (as they should) to changing circumstances, and updated information. Nothing should be cast in concrete, this is an evolving health issue and needs continual re-assessment. Good on Dr Young for staying on top of it all, I dont envy her in that onerous role.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Good to see QLD authorities reacting (as they should) to changing circumstances, and updated information.

Though reacting to sewer samples in this manner is pretty extreme as they can easily just be shed from people who are no longer infectious.

So for example, an international traveller flies back in, does their 14 day quarantine and has been tested and is no longer positive.

Returns home, goes to the toilet and sets off a sewer sample surveillance alarm as they are still shedding the virus.

Or a person who has been in hospital with Covid 19 gets discharged and returns home.

Given the number of stranded Australians overseas this could become a regular state of affairs.


Note too, that as Qld has infected people Hotel Quarantine that if they tested enough sewers I am sure they would find some shed virus, both now and in the future. So why not panic about that too. Surely Qld should close down?

Now it is prudent to do surveillance testing of the sewers as it may lead to identifying Unknown Local Transmission, but in my opinion step 1 should just be the local state investigating the matter rather than another state put in place restrictions due to it.

PS> One presumes that the current monitoring excludes all sewers that have Covid Hospitals and Hotel Quarantine.

 

[dajop]

Though reacting to sewer samples in this manner is pretty extreme as they can easily just be shed from people who are no longer infectious.

With the earlier mentioned sewer detection approach to keeping borders closed, Dan should have immediately locked down Anglesea, Vic last week, due to the detection of virus fragments in the sewer there. Too date, no mention of active cases in the area from the pop up testing site set up as a result.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

SA 2 from international quarantine, 3 active in quarantine remaining
Qld no new cases, 7 active remaining
WA no new cases, 14 active remaining

Australia 269 active remaining

 

[tgh]

Australia 269 active remaining

A bloody marvellous result.. but for how long can we keep the wolf from the door...

 

[kyle]

You know the ones that I often seem to get stuck behind and take an age to get served.

Some people go shopping to fill in their day and will want to go through what is available, how is your day, how they should cook things etc...

Happens to me all the time. Even at the supermarket without self checkout.