Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Bundy Bear]

The total number of cases in low but mystery cases still seem a bit high.

If you go out then you would be wearing a mask so it should only be immediate family or work.

 

[Flying mermaid]

NSW continues to do well - no cases apart from hotel quarantine. TAS will open up I reckon and ridiculous of QLD not to!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW

For the eleventh consecutive day, NSW has reported no recent cases of locally transmitted COVID‑19.

Eleven cases in overseas travellers in hotel quarantine were diagnosed in the 24 hours to 8pm last night, bringing the total number of cases in NSW to 4,057.

People in the Hawkesbury and South Western Sydney are particularly being called on to come forward for testing if they have any symptoms after the state’s sewage surveillance program detected fragments of the virus at the North Richmond and West Camden treatment plants.

The most recent cases in the West Camden catchment were reported in September, but no one living in the North Richmond catchment has recently tested positive for COVID-19.

Virus fragments in sewage can mean that there are active cases in the catchment area, but people can continue to ‘shed’ virus genetic material for some weeks after recovery.

....from NSW Health daily media release

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW mystery case watch

- 1 in the past 7 days
- 1 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the past 4 weeks (so -1 for the period 15-28 days)
- 31 older than 28 days but since Crossroads emerged.

i guess that’s how they treat the two month old case.

NSW mystery case watch

No change for the past three days.

- 1 in the past 7 days
- 1 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the past 4 weeks (so -1 for the period 15-28 days)
- 31 older than 28 days but since Crossroads emerged.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Don't feel that way

There is going to be a bumpy and jumpy tail according to all the medical experts. They say when the numbers are so very very low, you obviously only need a handful to bump the number up the wrong way. When the numbers are as low as they are in VIC now, they will be looking at the composition of the numbers rather than the absolute.

Plus one case has already been reclassified so its 14

2 actually, so 13

 

[Bundy Bear]

NSW continues to do well - no cases apart from hotel quarantine. TAS will open up I reckon and ridiculous of QLD not to!

Elections tend to change thinking so 1 November is a good date to work with.
I want to know when WA is going to open up.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And some good news is that hospitalisations, ICU patients and active cases in aged care all continue to drop. These are both important as they indicate that the future death toll should continue to decline.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From today's presser by Sutton: Butcher Club Cluster is now at 28 (Includes 4 customers) + 1 (Kilmore Case).

My comment: All 29 would not have happened if that cleaner had not have worked for 3 days when they knew that they should not be working.

Added: The care give is a family member of a Butcher Club contact. Was not aware at time of travel that they were a close contact of a Butcher Club infected person. But as a Metro resident should not have been dining in a cafe, though their reason for travel of care giving was valid.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From Today's Vic Presser: Dan Andrews just advised 80% of contact tracing interviews are now being performed within 4hrs of the positive result test becoming known.

He also indicated that they will soon release more detailed data on this including a measure of from 48hrs from when the swab is taken.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Elections tend to change thinking so 1 November is a good date to work with.
I want to know when WA is going to open up.

I have some friends who have just been given permission to move to WA. They applied 3 times and were finally given permission. Of course they live here in Canberra so maybe that helped, but it did make me wonder if things are easing up a bit. They have family in WA but didn’t have any employment to go to or anything.

 

[Pushka]

I keep seeing the Butcher Club reference and thought it might be some kind of bar but it’s a butcher? How have customers been infected because contact at butchers is hardly a prolonged Event?

 

[blackcat20]

I keep seeing the Butcher Club reference and thought it might be some kind of bar but it’s a butcher? How have customers been infected because contact at butchers is hardly a prolonged Event?

Yes its a chain of stores called Butchers Club. The meat is great quality and their prices are competitive, we often use them rather than buy from woolies etc. No idea how the virus was spread though, seems odd to me. The only contact is when they hand you your purchase, and usually they slide it across the counter.

Post automatically merged: Oct 6, 2020

Interesting info:


"The average family size in Australia is about 2.5 people. We've made estimates that the average family size for the 20,000 cases in this second wave has been between 6-10 people.

"And so, when there's a case here, you're not looking at one or two other contacts, you're looking at five or six or seven or eight or nine routinely for every household."

No wonder the clusters get so big so quickly.

 

[Pushka]

The only contact is when they hand you your purchase, and usually they slide it across the counter.

That’s the bit that baffles me. Just one shop in the chain affected?

 

[blackcat20]

That’s the bit that baffles me. Just one shop in the chain affected?

Yes, just the one at Chadstone Shopping centre.

 

[Pete98765432]

From Today's Vic Presser: Dan Andrews just advised 80% of contact tracing interviews are now being performed within 4hrs of the positive result test becoming known.

He also indicated that they will soon release more detailed data on this including a measure of from 48hrs from when the swab is taken.

A journalist asks Brett Sutton whether Victorians can have confidence in contact tracing given that there are 28 cases related to the Chadstone outbreak while he doesn't think the Crossroads Hotel outbreak even got to that number.

Obviously the journalist's research skills aren't that good. A simple google search reveals that at 1 August, 57 cases had been linked to the Crossroads Hotel (ABC News). I guess no need to let facts interfere with your agenda.

 

[dajop]

Interesting info:


"The average family size in Australia is about 2.5 people. We've made estimates that the average family size for the 20,000 cases in this second wave has been between 6-10 people.

"And so, when there's a case here, you're not looking at one or two other contacts, you're looking at five or six or seven or eight or nine routinely for every household."

No wonder the clusters get so big so quickly.

Agreed, there was always an implication that the demographics of the infected was why the Victorian situation exploded so quickly. This dynamic seemed to be not present in the first wave across Vic/Australia, nor in the NSW second wave.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

A journalist asks Brett Sutton whether Victorians can have confidence in contact tracing given that there are 28 cases related to the Chadstone outbreak while he doesn't think the Crossroads Hotel outbreak even got to that number.

Obviously the journalist's research skills aren't that good. A simple google search reveals that at 1 August, 57 cases had been linked to the Crossroads Hotel (ABC News). I guess no need to let facts interfere with your agenda.

I have not followed NSW closely and so perhaps some of our NSW readers can advise what the Crossroads Cluster finished up at including any other clusters that came from it.

ie

Recent Hunter cluster linked to Crossroads, but source remains a mystery

There have been no new cases of COVID-19 in the Hunter for almost three weeks.

www.newcastleherald.com.au

AUGUST 25 2020 - 4:30PM
Coronavirus: Newcastle family COVID cluster had same virus as Crossroads cases but source of infection still unknown

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Agreed, there was always an implication that the demographics of the infected was why the Victorian situation exploded so quickly. This dynamic seemed to be not present in the first wave across Vic/Australia, nor in the NSW second wave.

Early in the second wave it was noted that many households involved were large including multi-generational ones, and that were also often in more crowded living conditions. This compares to the first wave which was mainly in small households and often in more affluent (note more affluent just means more money rather than rich) households with presumably larger and less crowded conditions. ie If you have multiple bathrooms and bedrooms it is more achievable isolated within a household. More crowded households would tend to mean that if one person is exposed, that all other household members would be exposed.

The other factors is that with these larger households is that commonly their were other large households that they were mixed with. ie Casey Family Cluster 5 households and total cases of yesterday = 45.

The Frankston family cluster that created the Butcher Club Cluster is I believe about 8 or so cases. So that family cluster ahs in effect now grown to the mid-thirties in terms of total positive cases.

 

[moa999]

our NSW readers can advise what the Crossroads Cluster finished up at including any other clusters that came

Was over 50 but a bunch of sub-clusters in that.

Believe the detailed testing showed the Thai Rock outbreaks were distinct.

Interesting how NSW seems to be getting more than its fair share of positives from overseas returnees. Wonder if it's related to where flights are coming from.

 

[dajop]

Interesting how NSW seems to be getting more than its fair share of positives from overseas returnees. Wonder if it's related to where flights are coming from.

NSW should at least be getting 5 cases for every 3 cases for the other three states combined. But when you consider NSW gets all the US arrivals, which can be up to 3 flights on some days, as well as more EK, EY & QR flights, it's not surprising. By contrast, look at BNE arrivals over a three day period (today, tomorrow and the day after), it has just one arrival from the Middle East (proxy for Europe/ME/Africa) - from Doha, and the remainder from those well known COVID hotspots of AKL (4), POM (3) and TPE (1).