Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

2 new cases in Vic.

Mystery cases down by 2. So 1 must have reclassified as was only due to go down by 1.

Metro 14 Day Av = 6.4 (-0.8)
Metro Unknown = 13 (-2)
Regional 14 Day Av = 0.5
View attachment 230930

Update. One of the two Vic cases is actually interstate in hotel quarantine. So is really only 1 new case in Vic today.

 

[Pushka]

Update. One of the two Vic cases is actually interstate. So is really only 1 case today.

View attachment 230931

That is fabulous.
So let's say it keeps to just one or two a day, how long will it be before the magical numbers reduce to reduce further any restrictions?
Its difficult for all Govts to work out best to handle all the usual pre Christmas things safely, and obviously Football Finals, Spring Carnivals etc. Then there is cricket and tennis finals.

We have already had several events in SA cancelled, many of which don't make much sense, whilst others seem to proceed without much restriction. It is likely that the International Cricket and a Rugby League final will be played here with crowds of up to 30,000 and from Qld and NSW, yet the Christmas Pageant will now be held at Adelaide Oval instead of through the streets and with a crowd limit of 20,000 many of whom are kids and likely just SA residents.

Meanwhile the poor NZ travellers languish in a Med Hotel at their own cost.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[drron]

RooFlyer you should have more faith in your Health Department.They do actually have a plan for the scenario of a few cases being positive as well as a plan for Aged Care Facilities.

• A surge workforce is available to activate rapid response contact tracing.
• We have sufficient levels of PPE and are well advanced to reach our target level of stockpile PPE, with equivalent to 6 months’ supply available for our health service, with surge capacity if needed.

http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/559439/SAFE_REOPENING_STRATEGY_12Oct2020.pdf

 

[blackcat20]

And apparently reports the one Vic case could be a false positive.

 

[Lynda2475]

Importantly the 2 NSW cases are linked, both close household contacts of known clusters

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That is fabulous.
So let's say it keeps to just one or two a day, how long will it be before the magical numbers reduce to reduce further any restrictions?

Magical numbers?

However the non-magical ones have been indicated today by Dan to be a good chance of having further restrictions announced (ie retails, restaurants etc ) this Sunday for stage reopening from next week, rather than from 1 Nov. They also indicated that they are still aiming for what they term a "Christmas normal" in Vic.


If you look at the targets from the modelling put up when the Roadmap was put up then this modelling has actually been compared to most models that I have read for various jurisdictions outstanding accurate in its predictions. So credit to the team of modellers involved. There was a fair bit of negative flak at the time that they were wrong, too optimistic etc.

With complex modelling (and I have done such modelling for non-medical purposes) when you have many variables, with a lot being assumptions as they need to be (ie how effective are masks etc) the results are often more of a guide than meant to be a precise answer.

The original target date was 26th Oct with an average of 5 new cases day, and mystery cases of less than 5 per fortnight.

With 6 days to go to that original target date the new daily average trigger should be met, and mystery cases trigger (note they have now moved on from using these triggers as cases are now so low that they are instead focussing on the actual cases rather than predicted ones) should be approaching the original target.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I'm not exactly sure what the go is here.... hospitals reuse blood glucose meters with multiple patients every single day all across Australia. That is the standard of care. Lancets (mostly) and strips (the things you stick in the meter with blood) are obviously single use - and they were in this case too.

Is it just because it happened in a quarantine situation and they passed the meter to the patient and are worried about them touching it and getting something from the touch of the meter, where in hospital the patient wouldn't normally touch the meter?? If so the risk is microscopically low....

Can we have supporting evidence for both possibilities that don't rely on memories and missing meetings?

And this - how could this happen?

"More than 200 people who underwent hotel quarantine in Victoria have been urged to go get tested for HIV and other viruses after a testing stuff up resulted in possible cross-contamination.

Safer Care Victoria announced yesterday that 243 people who underwent blood glucose level tests while in hotel quarantine between March 29 and August 20 could be at risk of contracting a blood borne virus after the same test was used on multiple people.
“Blood glucose level testing devices intended for use by one person were used across multiple residents,” Safer Care Victoria said in a statement."

It’s likely that they were using a lancing device that’s for home / individual patient use only. Nothing to do with the Glucometer.
This type of device is for home use. The lancet itself is removed but there is a risk of splash back of blood inside the chamber.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It’s likely that they were using a lancing device that’s for home / individual patient use only. Nothing to do with the Glucometer. View attachment 230939
This type of device is for home use. The lancet itself is removed but there is a risk of splash back of blood inside the chamber.View attachment 230940

It was reported at the Vic Presser today that a device intended for multiple uses by the one person was wrongly used to to test multiple people.

 

[jakeseven7]

Vic may well be on zero cases today!


Victoria's single case of COVID-19 in the past day may be removed from the tally, as the Premier indicates Melbourne could open up further before November 1.

Premier Daniel Andrews has explained that the Health Department is investigating whether the single case recorded today is active or still "shedding" the virus from a previous infection.

Victoria 'well placed' to further ease COVID restrictions

Victoria has recorded just one new case of coronavirus in the past day and authorities say that figure could turn out to be zero.

www.theage.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The other good number in Victoria today is that the positivity rate which is only 0.01% after have peaked at 3.48% in the second wave. Especially as it from a healthy test volume of 11,936 tests.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 4 in the past 7 days
- 2 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So no change today ....

NSW mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 3 in the past 7 days
- 2 in the period 8-14 days
- 0 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So looks like a mystery case linked in the past 24 hours...

 

[RooFlyer]

RooFlyer you should have more faith in your Health Department.They do actually have a plan for the scenario of a few cases being positive as well as a plan for Aged Care Facilities.

Perhaps I listen the the ABC too much , but yes, that is what the Minister was saying this morning. She performed really well. And I edited my post above to strike out 'comically' and replace with 'chronically', which is what i meant.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Today's Vic DHHS Report is out. Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus update for Victoria - Tuesday 20 October

Some extracts are:


Media release
20 October 2020

Victoria has recorded one new case of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,320.​

There have been no new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. To date, 817 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.​

Today’s new case is a previously reported case who tested positive in July. This case is under investigation and review. Today’s case is in the local government area of Brimbank.​

​

This new case is being reviewed by an expert panel of clinicians and epidemiologists to determine if this is a new infection or if the person is still shedding virus from their original infection. The panel will examine a range of issues, including the cases’ movements, symptoms, epidemiological links to known cases and test results, to inform its decision.​

So as others reported earlier new cases today will most probably be adjusted to become zero in Vic (Though will most likely be reclassified on another day and so will come off that day's total).

....

The Department of Health and Human Services continues to work with local health services to contain an outbreak of coronavirus in Shepparton. There are three cases in Shepparton, which is no change from yesterday.​

​

A further 357 tests were taken in Shepparton and surrounding regions yesterday, taking the total number of tests in Shepparton and the surrounding region to 6680.​

......

The total number of cases from an unknown source in the last 14 days (4 Oct 2020 – 17 Oct 2020) is 13 for metropolitan Melbourne and zero from regional Victoria. The 14-day period for the source of acquisition data ends 48 hours earlier than the 14-day period used to calculate the new case average due to the time required to fully investigate a case and assign its mode of acquisition.​

​

The 13 mystery cases in the last 14 days (4 Oct 2020 – 17 Oct 2020) are in the following postcodes, 3015, 3024, 3025 (two cases), 3037, 3047, 3073 (two cases), 3081, 3128, 3152, 3173 and 3175.​

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Mystery cases drop to 10.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From the DHHS data table all 3 are shown as linked to known cases.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Presser

17,409 tests in Vic today for the three cases. So that is a very large number of tests.

Test that was thought to be a July case is not 100% either way. So to be cautious they will treat it as a re-infection.

 

[jakeseven7]

10 new cases for NSW
2 community cases (no mystery cases though as both linked already)

Testing up which is good.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Mystery cases dropped by 3 today on the rolling 14 day period. It was due to drop by 2 today and so 1 mystery case probably has been reclassified. This has quite commonly occurred.


Over the next 5 days 6 more mystery cases could drop out of the 14 day rolling period if there are no new mystery cases, or reclassifications. If so, unknown cases would be 5 on 26th Oct.....and the original Roadmap target for 26th October was to be less than 5.

 

[RooFlyer]

While not wanting to rain on the parade of good numbers for Victoria, it needs to be noted that Professor Sutton may be in a bit of strife about what he has said to the Hotel Quarantine inquiry and his instruction to his lawyers not to furnish the inquiry with certain emails. My source is the Oz, paywalled, so check your own media if interested in this aspect.

While it may seem a ‘diversion’ to keep tabs in the enquiry here, remember that hundreds of people died as a result of the bungle caused by a decision somewhere within the government and the state has been put through months of agony. If a private company had done something that caused hundreds of deaths, I suspect the CEO and many others would have been charged already. In this case the government gets to appoint its own inquiry, so we can only hope it does its duty.