Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

7 new cases

Rolling average now drops again to 5 for Metro Melbourne and drops in Regional VIC to 0.2 which is great news. Hopefully under 5 shortly.

The massive rapid response testing thousands of the northern cluster contacts where several hundred people are isolating has uncovered 4 new cases.

 

[Pushka]

View attachment 231207

7 new cases

Rolling average now drops again to 5 for Metro Melbourne

The massive rapid response testing of the northern cluster contacts where several hundred people are isolating has uncovered 4 new cases.

The other three? Released yet?

 

[Flying mermaid]

Sounds like they still need to do more work on managing cases and contacts

Devastated family may leave area after boy unknowingly took COVID-19 to school, principal says

The family at the centre of a COVID-19 cluster in Melbourne are so devastated and shaken by the situation, they have considered leaving the area, says the principal of the northern suburbs school shut down by the outbreak.

www.abc.net.au

 

[blackcat20]

Sounds like they still need to do more work on managing cases and contacts

Devastated family may leave area after boy unknowingly took COVID-19 to school, principal says

The family at the centre of a COVID-19 cluster in Melbourne are so devastated and shaken by the situation, they have considered leaving the area, says the principal of the northern suburbs school shut down by the outbreak.

www.abc.net.au

If the family provided the clearance letter to the school as stated then clearly the school didn’t read it properly.

 

[Flying mermaid]

If the family provided the clearance letter to the school as stated then clearly the school didn’t read it properly.

There appears to be confusion between Isolation and quarantine. I didn’t understand the difference until this week and English is my first language.

My comment was mainly based on the fact that multiple different people are talking to the same people and they are now going to have a case manager so only one person is communicating to avoid mixed message, which seems a necessary step to me. The step of DHHS informing the school of who needs to isolate/quarantine also seems a good improvement to avoid confusion.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

View attachment 231207

7 new cases

Rolling average now drops again to 5 for Metro Melbourne and drops in Regional VIC to 0.2 which is great news. Hopefully under 5 shortly.

The massive rapid response testing thousands of the northern cluster contacts where several hundred people are isolating has uncovered 4 new cases.

Slept in this morning

Looking at the data tables there are from yesterday's figures 3 cases yet to be classified, and 1 from the day prior (The parent). These may or may not become mystery cases.

They classify at 48hrs. And if facts later present to change that classification they do. ie Cases are sometimes classified as mystery cases and if linked later get reclassified .

What these 4 (yet to be linked) in total mean that there is no obvious link yet to the boy student with these cases. There may be an unknown third party link from the boy to them, but also maybe not. They may also not be in this community and could be elsewhere. ie completely different.

It could well be that there were some other spreaders in the community and what now is occurring due the boy having attended school with the many control measures having been rolled out that they are being flushed out. If so then the boy having attended school may well have actually all done us a favour. Or his attended school may have spread it in some way. Again going by the table below, there are no obvious links for 4 cases so far.

The 4 known cases today could be to the boy, or they could be to female parent (possible mystery case) identified yesterday, or to other cases not related to this particular community.

The presser is at 11.30 am today and that will probably reveal more detail of the 4 linked cases and 3 unlinked cases in today's test results.




[merged]

The other three? Released yet?

Such detail normally comes out at the presser. This is at 11.30am today.

I discern the unconfirmed and possible mystery cases from the daily data tables which is normally updated when the raw daily numbers are released.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nsw

No new local case, 5 in international quarantine

 

[RooFlyer]

There were comments on ABC radio this morning (I don't know where the journos involved live ) that Premier Andrews and his team are 'working hard' to lift restrictions earlier than planned. I know my family & friends in Melbourne are aching for this to happen, and no doubt AFFers here, but in view of the emerging cluster in the north of the metro area / the college, is this the time? It doesn't look as though the messaging is yet good enough in English-second-language areas (ignoring the anti-lockdown cretins for now). Is it practicable for the cluster areas to be kept locked down themselves within Melbourne - I'm not sure what the final lessons were from earlier selective (?post code?) lock-downs. Would people cop continued restrictions based on connections with the school, if the rest of the community were granted more freedom?

A really, really, tough call; I don't envy them.

 

[Pushka]

If the family provided the clearance letter to the school as stated then clearly the school didn’t read it properly.

I guess it depends on whether the child who later tested positive was mentioned in the letter. That isn't clear. It may have just stated that A and B were now not considered infectious and could return to school.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Good news in NSW

 

[Pushka]

There were comments on ABC radio this morning (I don't know where the journos involved live ) that Premier Andrews and his team are 'working hard' to lift restrictions earlier than planned. I know my family & friends in Melbourne are aching for this to happen, and no doubt AFFers here, but in view of the emerging cluster in the north of the metro area / the college, is this the time? It doesn't look as though the messaging is yet good enough in English-second-language areas (ignoring the anti-lockdown cretins for now). Is it practicable for the cluster areas to be kept locked down themselves within Melbourne - I'm not sure what the final lessons were from earlier selective (?post code?) lock-downs. Would people cop continued restrictions based on connections with the school, if the rest of the community were granted more freedom?

A really, really, tough call; I don't envy them.

I am sure that other Premiers are considering exactly the same.

 

[blackcat20]

I guess it depends on whether the child who later tested positive was mentioned in the letter. That isn't clear. It may have just stated that A and B were now not considered infectious and could return to school.

Thats what I mean. If the kids were named then the school should have realised earlier that the other kid wasnt to have returned yet.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 0 in the past 7 days
- 3 in the period 8-14 days
- 2 in the period 15-28 days
- 28 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So some natural ageing in the last 48 hour reporting period.

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 0 in the past 7 days
- 3 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the period 15-28 days
- 29 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

So some natural ageing in the last 48 hour reporting period.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Of the 7 cases, only 1 is now not linked which is good news.

 

[Pushka]

Thats what I mean. If the kids were named then the school should have realised earlier that the other kid wasnt to have returned yet.

I think that might be expecting too much from the school to be honest. Their exclusion should have been mentioned and as that child didn't turn positive until later, they may not have even put all the facts together. The child may have never been named in any Health Comms. And I don't think that is a schools responsibility but Vic Health who were supposed to be monitoring the family members.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The second school cluster (Croxton special school) is not currently connected to the East Preston School Cluster of 6 households.

Student has tested positive and is in a household where 4 in total are now positive.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Thats what I mean. If the kids were named then the school should have realised earlier that the other kid wasnt to have returned yet.

At this stage we do not know what was in the letter. So the school may have misconstrued its meaning or not. ie It may have only cleared the siblings.


However also at this stage we do not know if any transmission occurred by the year 5 student attending the school. Some are presuming it has, but to date the new cases publicly discussed have all not been linked to the student's attendance. ie the Croxton special school family cluster, or the unlinked parent at East Preston.

More detail will no doubt be released and linkages to the year 5 student attending the school may or may not be part that.

 

[jakeseven7]

I am sure that other Premiers are considering exactly the same.

Well they have no choice... because VIC are locking down / isolating and testing the third ring of all the school contacts regardless of where they live. Asymptomatic testing as well.

There are thousands of tests being processed and they are expecting hundreds/thousands today as well given the 15 rapid response sites set up.

VIC has done a really good job getting people in hotspots tested with these response units, far higher test numbers and faster than NSW actually did with their outbreaks, obviously more at stake in VIC but they could share these learnings with all other states as we open up, all states will be doing this. I think it would be great to share this approach.

Of the 7 cases, only 1 is now not linked which is good news.

View attachment 231215

The one is suspected to be a legacy case still shedding the virus so should come off. So likely to be zero mystery cases again.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Thats what I mean. If the kids were named then the school should have realised earlier that the other kid wasnt to have returned yet.

I think that’s putting a load on the Principal to understand in depth what is going on, If mother turns up and says my two kids were positive, but now they are cleared and so the whole family is OK (misunderstanding on her part, but easy to see how it can occur), shows principal a letter and he accepts it.

new system of informing schools of who is in iso and who is quarantined seems a safer procedure - fewer opportunities for misunderstandings.

fingers crossed for tomorrow though - I can understand how devastating this is.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well they have no choice... because VIC are locking down / isolating and testing the third ring of all the school contacts regardless of where they live. Asymptomatic testing as well.

There are thousands of tests being processed and they are expecting hundreds/thousands today as well given the 15 rapid response sites set up.

VIC has done a really good job getting people in hotspots tested with these response units, far higher test numbers and faster than NSW actually did with their outbreaks, obviously more at stake in VIC but they could share these learnings with all other states as we open up, all states will be doing this. I think it would be great to share this approach.


The one is suspected to be a legacy case still shedding the virus so should come off. So likely to be zero mystery cases again.

fingers crossed for tomorrow though - I can understand how devastating this is.

With today's cases if I have understood it correctly the 6 linked cases are linked to the following cluster/outbreaks:

• Estia
• Hopper Crossing Community Cluster
• East Preston (and East Preston has two different as yet unlinked transmission chains ((EDITED 3 now as the Croxton cluster has one student at EPIC as well though as yet no known transmission link to the other two casses)) - The 6 household family including the year 5 student, and the family of the an unlinked parent).
• Croxton special school (This is a recent cluster = Student has tested positive and is in a household where 4 in total are now positive. )

So that is cases in 4 or 5 different clusters (transmission chains). Given that the new cases per cluster today is small

The

• Estia,
• Hopper Crossing Community Cluster
• East Preston 6 household cluster (includes the Year 5 student)

are all older clusters that have had ongoing cases for a little while (ie people who have already been exposed to another infected person in the cluster but who later become positive and have done so in the test results announced today).

The year 5 student is not yet known to have infected anyone else. They may have but no such cases have been mentioned yet.

It is the two East Preston chains (one due to the student attending school while infectious) and the Croxton special school that have all having the third ring containment strategy deployed and following Kilmore and Shep this now seems to the norm for any new outbreak.

The other clusters are all contained.

Overall numbers are good. The trend is good, but yes cases will continue to go up and down for a while. And yes due to past previously high community transmission random new outbreaks may occur (ie Croxton special school and possibly the East Preston parent).

The good news remains that whenever a new outbreak pops up now, that it is being jumped on with a wide range of measures including the third ring isolation and asymptomatic testing for anyone that may possibly have had contact, and not just close contacts.