Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[RooFlyer]

Sensible decision by Premier Andrews to delay announcement of relaxation etc to see how the current outbreak pans out.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Isn’t it possible to open up the rest of Melbourne but keep a lockdown on the Northern Suburbs, like the did between metro and rural? I know they tried it before and it didn’t work, but they were pretty useless at test and trace then, whereas now they seem good. Very sad for the rest of Melbourne

Well they could, but with the openings they want (ie retail and restaurants where there would be a lot of public mixing) they seem to want to ensure that there are no recent mystery cases and importantly no undectected asymptomatic infected people as there have been a number is a small geographic region. With such mixing as postcodes cannot be made leakproof they would be worried that some may breach.



However of the 14 cases over the last 2 days 13 are now linked. 1 may have been a false positive. Note that yesterday that some of the 7 cases were from older Non-Northmetro clusters.

All current cases are contained, and with third ring measures. So overall the numbers are quite good. The third ring testing has identified new cases.

The concern that they have is that there are 11 linked households by geography (though not linked to each other by transmission) whereas on Tuesday it was 6 households that were thought to be contained. So the extra 5 households have been picked up by the third ring measures. So because the measures are thorough at present, including asymptomatic testing, these additional cases are being flushed out.



Unless something negative happens with the extra North Metro 1000 tests results that they are awaiting results from, one would expect easing of restrictions very soon. The health officials indicated that they asked for one day's delay in making the decision on changes to restrictions.

Sutton then said 24/48hrs so that all recent tests can be analysed.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW reports zero new local cases and 7 in international quarantine

 

[Flying mermaid]

Sensible decision by Premier Andrews to delay announcement of relaxation etc to see how the current outbreak pans out.

NSW had more daily cases and more community spread and more mystery cases than Vic has now and they managed to keep restaurants and retail open. I think this is too cautious. At some point they have to open up and live with the virus and jump on outbreaks. I hope it is only a 1 or 2 day delay because businesses are going down and that matters as well.

I am very supportive of what they have done in the past and they have done an amazing job of bringing numbers down and stopping deaths, but at some point they have to open up and deal with mystery cases and outbreaks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NSW reports zero new local cases and 7 in international quarantine

Post automatically merged: Oct 25, 2020

NSW had more daily cases and more community spread and more mystery cases than Vic has now and they managed to keep restaurants and retail open. I think this is too cautious. At some point they have to open up and live with the virus and jump on outbreaks. I hope it is only a 1 or 2 day delay because businesses are going down and that matters as well.

I am very supportive of what they have done in the past and they have done an amazing job of bringing numbers down and stopping deaths, but at some point they have to open up and deal with mystery cases and outbreaks.

It seems they will within a day or two, as agonising as it is for all of us here in Vic.

 

[blackcat20]

NSW had more daily cases and more community spread and more mystery cases than Vic has now and they managed to keep restaurants and retail open. I think this is too cautious. At some point they have to open up and live with the virus and jump on outbreaks. I hope it is only a 1 or 2 day delay because businesses are going down and that matters as well.

I am very supportive of what they have done in the past and they have done an amazing job of bringing numbers down and stopping deaths, but at some point they have to open up and deal with mystery cases and outbreaks.

But we had much higher total active cases. It’s finally got down to a safer number. And seriously, what’s two more days?

 

[Flying mermaid]

But we had much higher total active cases. It’s finally got down to a safer number. And seriously, what’s two more days?

As I said I supported what was done initially - absolutely had to be done once it got out of control. But if you compare where Vic has been for a few weeks now to where NSW was after the second wave hit them I don’t see any difference.

1 or 2 days probably don’t matter but I kind of agree with Mikakos - they have almost become paralysed in decision making in case something goes wrong - similar to Queensland.

 

[blackcat20]

As I said I supported what was done initially - absolutely had to be done once it got out of control. But if you compare where Vic has been for a few weeks now to where NSW was after the second wave hit them I don’t see any difference.

1 or 2 days probably don’t matter but I kind of agree with Mikakos - they have almost become paralysed in decision making in case something goes wrong - similar to Queensland.

Probably want to avoid any further backlash if it does go wrong. I mean, it’s dans fault we opened too quickly but also his fault we don’t open fast enough

 

[Flying mermaid]

Probably want to avoid any further backlash if it does go wrong. I mean, it’s dans fault we opened too quickly but also his fault we don’t open fast enough

You are right - kind of no win situation which leads to paralysis

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes backlash could be in part one reason. Plus at the start of the second wave they were not cautious enough.

However with the 1000 test results that they are awaiting the test results from, from what Dan and Sutton just said one reason why this 1000 results are important is that some of them have been taken from people that may be likely to flush out any transmission links between the 11 households in the North Metro region where they suspect that as it is a small geographic region (Comment plus EPIC in many cases) that there are more unknown transmission chains that will link them.

In doing so this may also identify further infected people, or the reverse that is is greater assurance that there are not other unknown active transmission chains. Note there may have been such chains but people may no longer be contagious and so will not show as positive cases (ie other chains may have died off).

 

[dajop]

Whilst its about the science and results in Victoria, it’s also about the political risk. I suspect 2 more days is critical as if anything goes wrong with opening up, the same journalists that are probing on the extra 2 days will be poring over every bit of correspondence between Dan and the health experts and no doubt there is advice to wait. You can see it now “Premier, why did you take steps to announce opening, when your health advisers clearly stated that you wait until the results of the test results are back?”

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Whilst its about the science and results in Victoria, it’s also about the political risk. I suspect 2 more days is critical as if anything goes wrong with opening up, the same journalists that are probing on the extra 2 days will be poring over every bit of correspondence between Dan and the health experts and no doubt there is advice to wait. You can see it now “Premier, why did you take steps to announce opening, when your health advisers clearly stated that you wait until the results of the test results are back?”

Exactly at the presser the two health officials indicated that they had requested the delay.

So imagine the media flurry if Dan had of pressed ahead today, and then more mystery cases starting popping up from tomorrow.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Presser: Dan just clarified that the 1 Nov easings are still likely, and so the delay today is just on the announcement of an earlier easings of some of the restrictions than this together with detailed announcements on the 1 Nov easings, not on pushing back the 1 Nov easings as well.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Sutton said today that if the same outbreak happened once the city was opened they would not lockdown again but deal with it...... Hoping for better news in a few days time

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Sutton said today that if the same outbreak happened once the city was opened they would not lockdown again but deal with it......

This is actually a good thing, and represents where Vic is now almost at.

I think that having a new unrelated outbreak in the future with a then background of very low, or zero cases, is quite a different from the situation as of now which is in the last days of of having outbreaks off the back of a long period of significant unknown community transmissions.

 

[kyle]

What do people think the mask situation will be like in Vic when the interstate borders reopen? No masks like the other States? (Not looking for any arguments on their effectiveness.)

 

[RooFlyer]

Probably want to avoid any further backlash if it does go wrong. I mean, it’s dans fault we opened too quickly but also his fault we don’t open fast enough

Sure, but that comes with the territory of being the leader. All the state and federal leaders know that if they get it right, it will be "Well, so you should"; if not, then hell to pay. Then they need to ensure they have the processes in place to show how a decision was arrived at.

 

[Flying mermaid]

This is actually a good thing, and represents where Vic is now almost at.

I think that having a new unrelated outbreak in the future with a then background of very low, or zero cases, is quite a different from the situation as of now which is in the last days of of having outbreaks off the back of a long period of significant unknown community transmissions.

Cases were pretty low prior to this “outbreak”. I think at some point you have to take your courage in both hands and just do it.

 

[jb747]

Probably want to avoid any further backlash if it does go wrong. I mean, it’s dans fault we opened too quickly but also his fault we don’t open fast enough

It is Dan's fault. He wanted the job, and the buck should stop with him. Thus far, he's managed about 20 cents.

What do people think the mask situation will be like in Vic when the interstate borders reopen? No masks like the other States? (Not looking for any arguments on their effectiveness.)

Masks for quite a while yet. It feels quite odd going over to Albury, where they've got 100% protection because of a river. Personally, I think that some of the low incidence states have set themselves up for a strong resurgence.

Cases were pretty low prior to this “outbreak”. I think at some point you have to take your courage in both hands and just do it.

It takes very little courage to lock people down, or to close a border, especially when you're just one of a few premiers doing it. Takes a lot more to open things up again.

Seriously, though, I do not understand why so much damage has been inflicted upon regional Victoria, when it was obvious quite some time back that most places had no issues. Mildura would be one of the best examples.

Equally, I'd love to know why Gladys insists upon a bubble within NSW. Qld doesn't for NSW border dwellers. Could it actually be that Swizzlestick will curtail the Qld opening if Gladys doesn't have a bubble?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think at some point you have to take your courage in both hands and just do it.

From what they said at the Vic Presser today they are. Just in a day or two.

Also Dan also said today that the 1 Nov easings would still most likely occur. If so the the bulk of easings will not have changed as to when they occur.

What may be different is that the earlier Dark Opening (ie preparing to open) of Restaurants and Retail that was hoped to be announced today to start on Monday, may now well be from Tuesday/Wednesday or later instead.

Cases were pretty low prior to this “outbreak”.

By way of further explanation, unknown community transmission has dropped markedly. Sutton stated that he was hopeful that its would reach the original target within days.

Also the cases in the North Metro Outbreak go back several weeks (Some members had already completed isolation on Monday. The Year 5 boy for example was later than his siblings an tested positive with his Day 11 test after the Day 3 test was negative.

So weeks ago when the North-metro outbreak started if was just after a period of that Mystery Cases had been at a much higher level than they are at now, and very much higher than what they will soon be at.

If you look at the graph below you can see that 6 cases are due to drop off over the next 3 days. So if no new Mystery cases, the trigger will have dropped from 9 to 3 = target reached. There is possibly 1 unclassified case pending that may become a mystery case. But that would still see it at 4.

Within a week the 14 day rolling trigger may be down to 1 or 2. So this is what I was referring to by stating that a future outbreak like Sutton was referring to would be in a background of not having significant unknown community transmissions. When the North-metro outbreak was probably kicking off it would have been most likely somewhere between 20 and 30.

So having a future outbreak happening from a background of 0-5 mystery cases is risk wise quite different from an outbreak kicking off when they are 20-30 mystery cases.

ie Vic is now entering where NSW was/is.





NSW Mystery cases last 3 months



NSW Mystery Cases last 6 months