blackcat20
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I’m so over the NSW comparisons, they never had the number of active cases we did.
I don't think he has confidence in the systems just yet although he has denied that. But it was a comms confusion that seems to be the core at the current issue. But it seems to be isolated in a small pocket amongst known groups. However it was mentioned that people in those areas were refusing to be tested.Cases were pretty low prior to this “outbreak”. I think at some point you have to take your courage in both hands and just do it.
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Are you sure? When I have heard this discussed recently with respect to various outbreaks in the North-metro area it has been that compliance was very good and that people were eager to be tested.However it was mentioned that people in those areas were refusing to be tested.
I’m so over the NSW comparisons, they never had the number of active cases we did.
No they didn’t 20,000 cases in Victoria vs bit over 4,000 in NSW. I don’t think anyone would ever (well almost no one) , feel that Victoria didn’t have to do what they did and well done to Victorians for doing it and beating it.I’m so over the NSW comparisons, they never had the number of active cases we did.
I read that report in the media today.Are you sure? When I have heard this discussed recently with respect to various outbreaks in the North-metro area it has been that compliance was very good and that people were eager to be tested.
But there aren’t 20 to 30 mystery cases there are 9 in a 2 week period -From what they said at the Vic Presser today they are. Just in a day or two.
Also Dan also said today that the 1 Nov easings would still most likely occur. If so the the bulk of easings will not have changed as to when they occur.
What may be different is that the earlier Dark Opening (ie preparing to open) of Restaurants and Retail that was hoped to be announced today to start on Monday, may now well be from Tuesday/Wednesday or later instead.
By way of further explanation, unknown community transmission has dropped markedly. Sutton stated that he was hopeful that its would reach the original target within days.
Also the cases in the North Metro Outbreak go back several weeks (Some members had already completed isolation on Monday. The Year 5 boy for example was later than his siblings an tested positive with his Day 11 test after the Day 3 test was negative.
So weeks ago when the North-metro outbreak started if was just after a period of that Mystery Cases had been at a much higher level than they are at now, and very much higher than what they will soon be at.
If you look at the graph below you can see that 6 cases are due to drop off over the next 3 days. So if no new Mystery cases, the trigger will have dropped from 9 to 3 = target reached. There is possibly 1 unclassified case pending that may become a mystery case. But that would still see it at 4.
Within a week the 14 day rolling trigger may be down to 1 or 2. So this is what I was referring to by stating that a future outbreak like Sutton was referring to would be in a background of not having significant unknown community transmissions. When the North-metro outbreak was probably kicking off it would have been most likely somewhere between 20 and 30.
So having a future outbreak happening from a background of 0-5 mystery cases is risk wise quite different from an outbreak kicking off when they are 20-30 mystery cases.
ie Vic is now entering where NSW was/is.
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NSW Mystery cases last 3 months
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NSW Mystery Cases last 6 months
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I think Vic will have mandatory masks at least until Covid normal step (current test is 28 days of no new cases and no active cases)What do people think the mask situation will be like in Vic when the interstate borders reopen? No masks like the other States? (Not looking for any arguments on their effectiveness.)
NSW has a different definition of active cases. They define it as anything up to 28 days old.No they didn’t 20,000 cases in Victoria vs bit over 4,000 in NSW. I don’t think anyone would ever (well almost no one) , feel that Victoria didn’t have to do what they did and well done to Victorians for doing it and beating it.
let’s hope in a day or two will see reopening.
But there aren’t 20 to 30 mystery cases there are 9 in a 2 week period -
??? I was quoting total number of cases according to Covid live. Not active cases. Are you saying NSW had more than 4382 total cases?NSW has a different definition of active cases. They define it as anything up to 28 days old.
If you look at the number of total cases and less the recovered number, it does not equal the active cases in NSW
ACcording to NSW Health, the total cases is 4193 (including interstate arrivals). Some people (not me) might also add that a major portion is international quarantine (as opposed to acquired overseas) so its a different position.??? I was quoting total number of cases according to Covid live. Not active cases. Are you saying NSW had more than 4382 total cases?
EDIT - I ignored the “active” criteria. Obviously if you have 5 times as many cases you are also going to have more active cases.
I think Vic will have mandatory masks at least until Covid normal step (current test is 28 days of no new cases and no active cases)
Ok - I will need to stop trusting Covid live that’s about a 5% difference. I think we should keep two totals. Counting overseas arrivals gives a distorted view (unless of course the virus escapes into the community).ACcording to NSW Health, the total cases is 4193 (including interstate arrivals). Some people (not me) might also add that a major portion is international quarantine (as opposed to acquired overseas) so its a different position.
Ok - I will need to stop trusting Covid live that’s about a 5% difference. I think we should keep two totals. Counting overseas arrivals gives a distorted view (unless of course the virus escapes into the community).
Haha we all use Covidlive because they have a lot of historical data readily available, so long as we all accept that it’s only right (or near right) about 90% of the time.Ok - I will need to stop trusting Covid live that’s about a 5% difference. I think we should keep two totals. Counting overseas arrivals gives a distorted view (unless of course the virus escapes into the community).
The screenshot of covidlive of NSW is different to NSW health’s figures today. Flying mermaid quoted the same number I think off covidliveYou may prefer:
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COVID-19 in New South Wales (NSW) | covid19data.com.au
Dashboard of COVID-19 in NSW. Cases, transmission sources, testing, quarantine and active cases - today and all-time.www.covid19data.com.au
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I don't think he has confidence in the systems just yet although he has denied that. But it was a comms confusion that seems to be the core at the current issue. But it seems to be isolated in a small pocket amongst known groups. However it was mentioned that people in those areas were refusing to be tested.
And my bet is that if restrictions ease for all next week then they will no longer self iso anyway.People refusing to be tested baffles me but it happened in QLD and NSW as well.... At least in this situation they are saying sure but enjoy an extra amount of time in quarantine.... I know what I would do.
And my bet is that if restrictions ease for all next week then they will no longer self iso anyway.