Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

I think Vic will have mandatory masks at least until Covid normal step (current test is 28 days of no new cases and no active cases)

They should keep them as long as they can, certainly indoors - why not. Cheap, easy and a good visual reminder that things are not ‘normal’.

NSW are desperately trying to get their PT users to wear masks but can’t enforce anything so compliance is very low and they are really stuck in how to get people to do it.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Haha we all use Covidlive because they have a lot of historical data readily available, so long as we all accept that it’s only right (or near right) about 90% of the time.

My issue with discounting mandatory quarantine too readily is because:
I) we will soon have quarantine-free arrivals
Ii) there are the celebrity overseas arrivals who have their own isolation requirements, with more coming for the summer sport season
Iii) we used to trust overseas arrivals in the early days
Iv) we are actively managing local quarantine/isolation compliance.
I’m sure there are other reasons.

It would certainly get very messy once we have quarantine free arrivals (apart from NZ).

the sports one seem a disaster in the making, given the number of breaches from our own home grown sports people.

trusting overseas arrivals - well we learnt our lesson there. The only way I would trust them would be with an app and a monitoring bracelet - would make the celebrities wear them as well (apart from on the playing field where they are in view).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

They should keep them as long as they can, certainly indoors - why not. Cheap, easy and a good visual reminder that things are not ‘normal’.

NSW are desperately trying to get their PT users to wear masks but can’t enforce anything so compliance is very low and they are really stuck in how to get people to do it.

Well when NSW Premier and NSW Health are hailing previously 12 days without local recent cases then it’s going to reduce the number of people worried and hence mask wearing - only super vulnerable are more likely to wear masks

 

[antycbr]

the sports one seem a disaster in the making, given the number of breaches from our own home grown sports people.

I think the Australian Open will go ahead but the players will be expected to arrive two weeks before the tournament, which most of them do anyway to play in the different leadup matches. The challenge is that the lead up matches can't happen this year as they will need to be in hotel quarantine.

Perhaps to be safe we should fly everyone into NSW, and get them to do their quarantine here, with access to supervised training at the tennis centre at Sydney Olympic Park.

I couldn't think of a better place to enforce isolation than Sydney Olympic Park when there are no events on, it's a ghost town!

Post automatically merged: Oct 25, 2020

Well when NSW Premier and NSW Health are hailing previously 12 days without local recent cases then it’s going to reduce the number of people worried and hence mask wearing - only super vulnerable are more likely to wear masks

The government could pass a regulation requiring masks on PT - no mask no ride - but that would require enforcement...

 

[Pushka]

The comment this morning was that most of those choosing this option are being accommodated in alternative accomodation

That would be good but that wasn't mentioned in the article I read. The opposite in fact, that they were isolating at home. What could possibly go wrong.

 

[jakeseven7]

That would be good but that wasn't mentioned in the article I read. The opposite in fact, that they were isolating at home. What could possibly go wrong.

It was in the press conference. The same thing that could go wrong in any state I suppose there have been outbreaks anywhere. WA had yet another quarantine breach yesterday.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well when NSW Premier and NSW Health are hailing previously 12 days without local recent cases then it’s going to reduce the number of people worried and hence mask wearing - only super vulnerable are more likely to wear masks

I agree it’s hard to message two ‘opposite’ pieces of info to a generally nonchalant population but Gladys literally 2 days ago was begging commuters to wear masks. Apparently there is some legal reason NSW cannot enforce, can’t remember exactly.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I agree it’s hard to message two ‘opposite’ pieces of info to a generally nonchalant population but Gladys literally 2 days ago was begging commuters to wear masks. Apparently there is some legal reason NSW cannot enforce, can’t remember exactly.

NSW can pass a law or regulation on PT mask wearing. They just don’t want to be seen to be bowing down to the transport union Who have been asking for it for a while and considered striking over it.

Also, there has only been one NSW case of PT transmission to date, ironically from a PT wearer to a non-PT wearer - so much for the masks protecting others more than the wearer!

 

[Flying mermaid]

I agree it’s hard to message two ‘opposite’ pieces of info to a generally nonchalant population but Gladys literally 2 days ago was begging commuters to wear masks. Apparently there is some legal reason NSW cannot enforce, can’t remember exactly.

They want to increase numbers on public transport but don’t feel they can do so safely without people wearing masks, especially as mask wearing has declined ( probably due to complacency over numbers)

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I read that report in the media today.

No Cookies | Herald Sun

Breaking News from Melbourne and Victoria | Herald Sun

www.heraldsun.com.au

"Victoria’s testing commander Jeroen Weimar said authorities had been able to connect the 11 households.........
Mr Weimar said some groups associated with the northern suburb clusters refused to get tested, but were currently quarantining at home.

“There’s isolated clusters of people who refuse to be tested at a certain time,” he said.

“There are occasionally good reasons for that. We do not allow people who were suspected of harbouring the virus to go out to the community.”

So in other words you are talking about a very small number of people. And some of those evidently from what you have now posted have not refused to be tested, but not just at a particular time.

And all those that refuse have to quarantine.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And my bet is that if restrictions ease for all next week then they will no longer self iso anyway.

It is not their choice. They have been ordered to quarantine.

They are being checked on and the fine if breaching is now quite massive.

Also the checking is not simply that they are there, it is also ongoing welfare check and deals with a broad range of issues including food.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Scanning the second waves: how Victoria's COVID-19 response compares

(and no I don't know why our Kiwi Cousins were left out)

Full article here

Scanning the second waves: how Victoria's COVID-19 response compares

The Victorian dominated second wave put the nation in the same place as many countries, not any longer so what does the data say about what has happened since?

www.theage.com.au

The two graphs below are both per million residents.

Compared to better performing jurisdictions:



And compared to the not so good ones...

 

[Pushka]

So in other words you are talking about a very small number of people. And some of those evidently from what you have now posted have not refused to be tested, but not just at a particular time.

And all those that refuse have to quarantine.

I don’t see any number mentioned at all. Are we reading the same thing. But of course, it takes just one so that’s a red herring anyway. And the second sentence? I have no idea what you are talking about. They have refused testing. Period.

The sad story here is what people are supposed to to do, what the authorities have said for them to do, what those same people have heard they have to do, and what actually happens don’t match.

I haven’t read anywhere about the checking process. Can you point me to that explanation as that sounds effective and promising.

 

[ethernet]

Taiwan used mobiles to monitor compliance. And a device to question anyone in public not carrying an active mobile phone. In Australia, some say that's a breach of privacy/human rights - but its OK to stop us flying OS or stuck in a Victorian lockdown. If operations research (OR) was used, both could be applied. On the downside, there would be enforcement costs, and a lot of angry rule breakers. Victoria could use it to enforce local lockdowns by mobile tower locations where mystery cases popup.

Anyone can buy mobile phone diagnostic software, to log polling etc. Privacy advocates are mistaken if they believe mobile phone users have any location privacy. (some exceptions - tunnels, underground or in a high-rise etc).

 

[dajop]

Scanning the second waves: how Victoria's COVID-19 response compares

(and no I don't know why our Kiwi Cousins were left out)

Full article here

Scanning the second waves: how Victoria's COVID-19 response compares

The Victorian dominated second wave put the nation in the same place as many countries, not any longer so what does the data say about what has happened since?

www.theage.com.au

The two graphs below are both per million residents.

Compared to better performing jurisdictions:
View attachment 231390

Although you really can't compare Victoria to Singapore in any way. Some things different happening in Singapore -
1) Victorian second wave, like Singapore seemed to most affect the most disadvantaged members of the population
2) However unlike SIngapore, Victoria's most disadvantaged were in the community, out and about (cleaners, aged workers, meatworks etc). In Singapore, the vast majority of cases were in (construction) worker prisons dormitories, which were isolated from the community as soon as they realised the virus had made it's way into the dorms. They even went as far as move workers testing negative into hotels and cruise ships so they could continue working. Seems also have been much better infection control amongst health care workers, although some working in the dorms did test positive.
3) Management of cases was largely about systematically working through the dorms, whilst easing in the broader community happened progressively from mid June.
4) This is speculation, the cases troughed on 10 July before rising again. By pure co-incidence 10 July happened to be election day? What I'm suggesting is cases in the dorms were managed through testing rates to be lower by this date, and cleaned up after the election (hence the second peak).
5) Over the course of the pandemic only ~2300 cases have been detected in the broader community (not dissimilar to NSW), whilst an astonishing 55,000 were detected in dormitories.
6) Only 28 deaths reported since start of pandemic -probably largely due to the bulk of those infected being fit 20 and 30 something men in the dormitories.
7) Furthermore, anyone testing positive in the community is automatically detained taken into care.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I haven’t read anywhere about the checking process. Can you point me to that explanation as that sounds effective and promising.

Weimar has gone through it in the daily pressers. So just watch the videos of the daily press conferences of say Tuesday to Thursday.

Weimar went through in detail and also has gone through many of the third ring measures as well.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The sad story here is what people are supposed to to do, what the authorities have said for them to do, what those same people have heard they have to do, and what actually happens don’t match.

You mean the one Year 5 student, rather than the thousands who have done the right thing?

With the third ring testing people were given a choice. So all have complied with one of the two options given.

Perhaps look at the "good" story of how things are progressing as a whole where cases have been declining and outbreaks contained quite well. Or the "good " story of the vast majority doing the right thing.

The original modelling for 26 October aimed to achieve an 14 day average number of no more than new cases of 5 per day, and unknown cases 5 in 14 days.

It is 4.6 and 9. So one measure is under and one just over. In 3 days both are likely to be reached.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

. And the second sentence? I have no idea what you are talking about. They have refused testing. Period.

I am talking about what you quoted. Your quote was:

“There’s isolated clusters of people who refuse to be tested at a certain time,” he said.

Now having also listened to Weimar at the pressers I know that he mentioned for example that with the 120 odd at the Housing Commission, that 86 were tested on the first day. The next day he said more had been tested, but some were still outstanding. He has recently reported that all in the Housing Commission have been released from quarantine and that there were no positive cases. So clearly not as you assert "They have refused testing. Period." as in this case people have been tested over a period of time even though they were all asked to be tested on the first day.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Good news.

Victoria’s Commander of Testing and Community Engagement, Jeroen Weimar, has just advised on CH7 Evening news, that the additional 1100 tests in the North-metro region referred to in the presser this morning have all returned negative results. ie No new cases.

Another 1400 swabs have also now been taken in this region today and will now be analysed.

 

[jakeseven7]

Good news.

Victoria’s Commander of Testing and Community Engagement, Jeroen Weimar, has just advised on CH7 Evening news, that the additional 1100 tests in the North-metro region referred to in the presser this morning have all returned negative results. ie No new cases.

Another 1400 swabs have also now been taken in this region today and will now be analysed.

Amazing news and an impressive response again from the rapid response units in VIC.