Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 1 in the past 7 days
- 0 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the period 15-28 days
- 34 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

NOTE 1 usual report not yet loaded. Just one change due to natural aging.

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 1 in the past 7 days
- 0 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the period 15-28 days
- 33 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

The last report came in - apparently a -1 happened on 10/11 (Tuesday), but assume since it wasn’t reflected in the 2 and 4 week reports, must relate to a mystery case over 4 weeks old

 

[drron]

With the Victoria/SA case it would be ideal if they were able to test for the genomics on both positive swabs.It has been shown you can be infected twice proven by different viral strains.

 

[justinbrett]

The "mistake" which was letting people off the ship at the end of the cruise without waiting for test results or requiring more.

That led to 30-40 infections and no deaths.

The remaining 900 had their fate sealed on the day they boarded - 8 March - when a number of other cruise ships around the country were also boarding, and Australias Covid cases was very low.

Thank You! Nobody ever brings this up but it’s completely factual.

For all we know NSW saved lives by letting people off earlier and stopping more passengers from becoming infected. Granted this could have spread the virus much further, but in this case it didn’t.

 

[jakeseven7]

The issue of the returning nurse to SA testing positive again seems to be causing a reassessment of the border with Vic opening up soon.

Yes VIC should probably shut the border to SA if the goal is elimination.... stop her from walking back in and shedding it everywhere

 

[Pushka]

If it is just an old case still shedding then logically it shouldn't.

Agree. But they still haven't been able to ascertain that. They are trying I believe as they don't want it to be a reinfection either.

Post automatically merged: Nov 13, 2020

With the Victoria/SA case it would be ideal if they were able to test for the genomics on both positive swabs.It has been shown you can be infected twice proven by different viral strains.

That is what they are doing. Takes time.

Yes VIC should probably shut the border to SA if the goal is elimination.... stop her from walking back in and shedding it everywhere

She developed it while in Victoria, in a Nursing home, at least once and possibly a reinfection or another infection. So maybe we shouldn't have let her return from Victoria?

 

[jakeseven7]

She developed it while in Victoria, in a Nursing home, at least once and possibly a reinfection or another infection. So maybe we shouldn't have let her return from Victoria?

Sure thing. There is no way SA would let one very likely reinfection case that slipped past them, impact any of their planned announcements on any borders judging by past decisions, allowing NSW to resume travel when there was/is active community transmission and mystery cases

Would make no sense and would be interested to know the source article you saw that in.....?

I guess SA could slam their own borders down on themselves until they figure it out, you know to protect the rest of Australia.... because we are all going for suppression** right ?

** suppression target actually = elimination target in all states apart from NSW but no one can tell the truth about this definition

 

[Pushka]

I guess SA could slam their own borders down on themselves until they figure it out, you know to protect the rest of Australia.... because we are all going for suppression** right ?

No need to shut ourselves down as the person was in a medi hotel run by the Govt and not just self iso from the time she arrived at the airport. .

I believe they are genuinely hoping it is a reinfection of the original virus and not a new infection as that would imply two things. That there is still undetected virus in Victoria that she picked up, and second, that you can be reinfected with Covid. And no one wants either of those two possibilities.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Zero cases again in Vic.

 

[jakeseven7]

And good testing rates continue

 

[lovetravellingoz]

No need to shut ourselves down as the person was in a medi hotel run by the Govt and not just self iso from the time she arrived at the airport. .

I believe they are genuinely hoping it is a reinfection of the original virus and not a new infection as that would imply two things. That there is still undetected virus in Victoria that she picked up, and second, that you can be reinfected with Covid. And no one wants either of those two possibilities.

With the old virus scenario it would not be a reinfection but rather is just shedding of virus cells.

This means that they will have not have been contagious for a long period of time.

Reinfection if that is the case depending on when they caught could mean that they are contagious.

When did she test positive again? It was the 9th? If so everyone she knew in Vic will have been tested. New cases are still zero. 14 days of no cases and so the odds of her being a new mystery case in Vic would be huge.

In SA testing people may still turn positive as contact was more recent to show she was contagious, but most likely she will not have been.

With genomic sequencing it is not always possible to grow a live virus to sequence. Moreso from these old shedding cases.

Vics last 2 mystery cases were most likely old cases shedding but they could not prove one way or the other and so they went with the more severe classification.

From what is public so far it points to an old shedding case. The testing in Vic has regularly been detecting such cases.

 

[jakeseven7]

No need to shut ourselves down as the person was in a medi hotel run by the Govt and not just self iso from the time she arrived at the airport. .

I believe they are genuinely hoping it is a reinfection of the original virus and not a new infection as that would imply two things. That there is still undetected virus in Victoria that she picked up, and second, that you can be reinfected with Covid. And no one wants either of those two possibilities.

I seriously seriously doubt that line of thinking would be happening in SA of all places....but if what you say is true we should start calling South Australia South Queensland then with that level of logic as they are happily fully open importing tourists from a state with known and detected community transmission, mystery cases and a testing regime which is far less comprehensive than Vic

It’s already been proven you can be reinfected... I’m sure they have seen overseas news and data, there’s a bunch of cases. I just don’t think SA are that far behind the game (perhaps I am wrong)...

Anyway we will see and ultimately it’s up to the three amigos... let’s see how onto it they are

 

[Pushka]

With the old virus scenario it would not be a reinfection but rather is just shedding of virus cells.

This means that they will have not have been contagious for a long period of time.

Reinfection if that is the case depending on when they caught could mean that they are contagious.

When did she test positive again? It was the 9th? If so everyone she knew in Vic will have been tested. New cases are still zero. 14 days of no cases and so the odds of her being a new mystery case in Vic would be huge.

In SA testing people may still turn positive as contact was more recent to show she was contagious, but most likely she will not have been.

With genomic sequencing it is not always possible to grow a live virus to sequence. Moreso from these old shedding cases.

Vics last 2 mystery cases were most likely old cases shedding but they could not prove one way or the other and so they went with the more severe classification.

From what is public so far it points to an old shedding case. The testing in Vic has regularly been detecting such cases.

Yes. Am fully aware of all of that. In the past SA Health comment on whether a positive result is an historical one (viral shedding but not infectious) but they haven't declared that currently.

However, the issue of conflict is that she tested negative in Victoria after recovering from the first positive. If she was still shedding from the first infection then why did she test negative in Victoria. Then positive when she returned to SA. She flew in on November 8 and tested positive (whatever that currently means) on November 10. She was in a medi hotel, as were all other passengers, from her time of arrival into SA.

I seriously seriously doubt that line of thinking would be happening in SA of all places....but if what you say is true we should start calling South Australia South Queensland then with that level of logic as they are happily fully open importing tourists from a state with known and detected community transmission, mystery cases and a testing regime which is far less comprehensive than Vic

It’s already been proven you can be reinfected... I’m sure they have seen overseas news and data, there’s a bunch of cases. I just don’t think SA are that far behind the game (perhaps I am wrong)...

Anyway we will see and ultimately it’s up to the three amigos... let’s see how onto it they are

The cases of reinfection from overseas, how many have there been reported? A handful? I'm thinking given different testing protocols used in other countries are likely being not treated as proven just yet.

Maybe it's a confidence issue in how breakouts are handled as to how the various state Governments are trusting other states. I dunno. Just me theorising.

 

[RooFlyer]

Tas Premier on ABC radio just now. Overseas flights with returning Australians will begin into Hobart soon. We have only 1 hospital in the south, so an issue could be that, like the NW General Hospital earlier this year, a COVID patient needing hospital admission could lead to an 'escape' within the health system. With the NW General situation, it was closed and patients transferred to other hospitals in the region. Can't happen with the Royal Hobart Hospital.

Tas Premier said that they will have a 'medi hotel', so COVID patients won't go into the RHH. Sounds sensible. Has this been done elsewhere? No other details about capacity, equipment etc.

Premier also noted that the historic figure for infected returnees was 3%, but is falling. Our returnees will initially come from India. Tested prior to departure and tested again in quarantine and before release.

 

[Pushka]

Tas Premier said that they will have a 'medi hotel', so COVID patients won't go into the RHH. Sounds sensible. Has this been done elsewhere? No other details about capacity, equipment etc.

Yes. In SA. Anyone returning from overseas and positive or Victoria, if they have been working with Covid patients, go into a medi hotel.

 

[jakeseven7]

The cases of reinfection from overseas, how many have there been reported? A handful? I'm thinking given different testing protocols used in other countries are likely being not treated as proven just yet.

Around 25-30.... according to the last talk I heard on them, probably more now. And as the UK comes into winter and their second wave takes a real grip I expect they (unfortunately) will see more there too given the time now between the initial outbreak there...

Maybe it's a confidence issue in how breakouts are handled as to how the various state Governments are trusting other states. I dunno. Just me theorising.

Doubt it, the last three outbreaks VIC had they completely crushed them and are now held up as best standard rapid response to outbreaks, track, trace, isolating by Finkel.

Anyway we will see.

 

[RAM]

Ummmm ... ACT?

Good 'ol Ruby. Still giving for the interstate tit-for-tats. I wonder if it still comes up in the National Cabinet?

I bet your teachers loved you!

Love - 15.

Now for something completely different...

Some semi-hard data about self-quaranting for returning travellers. Even better it was funded by an airline - so as the results are negative (against the airline's interests despite paying for the study) makes it appear even more credible.

Executive summary: Major fail.

Interesting Research: Effectiveness Of 14-Day Self-Quarantine For Travel

New research suggests that a 14-day quarantine is less effective than even a single coronavirus test on arrival. Does the logic hold up?

onemileatatime.com

The study suggests that:

• Only 71% of symptomatic individuals adhere to a 14-day quarantine
• Only 28% of asymptomatic individuals adhere to a 14-day quarantine

It’s suggested that if there had been testing on arrival in August 2020, the presence of coronavirus on arrivals from the EU would have been just 0.01%, compared to estimates of UK community transmission being 0.57% during the months of September and October.

• The research uses data from Norway regarding people skipping quarantine, so it’s anyone’s guess how that maps over to other countries; personally I’d be shocked if the numbers were significantly better in New York or the UK
• The research was funded by Virgin Atlantic, Heathrow, and others, so obviously there’s a motive behind this

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes. Am fully aware of all of that. In the past SA Health comment on whether a positive result is an historical one (viral shedding but not infectious) but they haven't declared that currently.

However, the issue of conflict is that she tested negative in Victoria after recovering from the first positive. If she was still shedding from the first infection then why did she test negative in Victoria. Then positive when she returned to SA. She flew in on November 8 and tested positive (whatever that currently means) on November 10. She was in a medi hotel, as were all other passengers, from her time of arrival into SA.


The cases of reinfection from overseas, how many have there been reported? A handful? I'm thinking given different testing protocols used in other countries are likely being not treated as proven just yet.

Maybe it's a confidence issue in how breakouts are handled as to how the various state Governments are trusting other states. I dunno. Just me theorising.

As to why she, or anyone, can test negative and then postive much later others may be able answer this better than me....but as I recall it is because some old virus fragments dislodge and then are picked up by the test.

You had the Essendon footballer who returned from Ireland and was tested twice per week before a positive test. Then negative after.

Initially they feared that he had just caught it. But after several more negative tests and other tests and given his ongoing record of testing they cleared him without having to serve the full 10 days. It was decided that he had caught it in Ireland.

There have been many such examples in Vic.

Proven reinfections are rare worldwide.

To get reinfected when community cases are very low or zero would be an amazing set of odds.

Ps. There are also some people who stay infected longer and who keep testing positive for an extended period.

 

[jakeseven7]

 

[moa999]

Good news with all the tests in the SW Sydney from the sewerage testing announcement should be in those numbers.

2 previous cases recorded as locally acquired were also removed from the total. Not ear what they relate to.

 

[Lynda2475]

Tas Premier said that they will have a 'medi hotel', so COVID patients won't go into the RHH. Sounds sensible. Has this been done elsewhere? No other details about capacity, equipment etc.

NSW has a mix of medi-hotels and quarantine hotels. The quarantine hotels are for asymptomatic arrivals and those that continue to test negative - they are run by NSW police.

The health-hotels are for Anyone testing positive on arrival (or during their quarantine) these are run by NSW Health and have nursing staff on site 24 * 7 and daily doctor visits.

Note however, if their condition requires hospitalisation they are then transferred to a hospital - so a medi-hotel in itself doesnt negate the need for a hospitakl near by.

Premier also noted that the historic figure for infected returnees was 3%, but is falling. Our returnees will initially come from India. Tested prior to departure and tested again in quarantine and before release.

That seems to conflict with recent media reports which show that positive cases in international arrivals are increasing in NSW. NSW is needing to activate another health-hotel.