Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[RooFlyer]

Also for a virus strain that contagious that a hot pizza box would transmit it, where were all the other cases? Where were the cases on the flight in from the pax who flew in etc?

As I said above, do you really want them to answer those sorts of questions before they act on the possibility of a very virulent strain? See post & bolded text above.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Also for a virus strain that contagious that a hot pizza box would transmit it, where were all the other cases? Where were the cases on the flight in from the pax who flew in etc?

Also the virus does not survive in heat. Temperatures over 35 kill it. So if it could be so contagious on a hot box, what about on cool airline surfaces etc?

People wearing masks on a plane???

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Do you really think its reasonable for all those questions to be answered before the authorities react? I think the conclusion here is we should be thankful its not our responsibilty to make these decisions.
_ _ _ _



Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
_ _ _ _

Some quotes from Prof Spurrier via the Oz on-line:

Government officials are holding a press conference to further explain the debacle, after Premier Steven Marshall yesterday blamed the man — identified as a 36-year-old Spanish national on a visa — for triggering the six-day lockdown.

“To be clear, the decision to lock down hard, and I know it has been very difficult for people in South Australia, and perhaps difficult to understand, was not based on the interview with one man,” the state’s chief public health officer Professor Nicola Spurrier said.

“We would never make those decisions in isolation of just one piece of information, it is very complex. I have a set of principles and the first one of those is the precautionary principle, and that is about acting swiftly without necessarily having all the information, because if you wait too long, you have missed an opportunity, and again, I was acting using that precautionary principle.”
_ _ _ _

The state’s police commissioner Grant Stevens said, had this man been “more upfront, we would not have instituted a six-day lockdown”.

“We are satisfied that we made the right call at the time based on the information available,” Commissioner Stevens said.

“Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but we don’t have the benefit of hindsight at the time we had these decisions, and it is not a black-and-white situation to begin with, these are difficult decisions that have to be made in the best interest of the wider community.”

Why hindsight? There was a substantive period of time involved and cases outside of the one family was very small.

Even more time for a super contagious virus to have shown up in passengers on the plane. Nothing has been revealed to actually indicate that the virus strain was super contagious and Spurrier said she acted based on a visit to the store and not just possible fomite transmission on a hot pizza box. Spurrier also said yesterday that contact tracers also did not believe the person's story and so also knew that information was possibly not accurate.

Again speed to act was and is commendable. I am only questioning the degree of the measures jumped to based on what was known by the authorities when they made the decision (so hindsight is not a factor).

 

[Pushka]

It’s now a week......now it’s seven days and 31 pages

It’s been less than a day since everything started unraveling back with the shock announcement so...maybe you just need to be here to get what the last couple of days have been like.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It’s been less than a day since everything started unraveling back with the shock announcement so...maybe you just need to be here to get what the last couple of days have been like.

At your service.....24 hours 4 pages lol

 

[Lynda2475]

Hasn’t NSW had a local (community transmission) case and Tassie didn’t SLAM their borders shut for that?

Nope borders opened 4th Nov, NSW last mystery case was before that.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nope borders opened 4th Nov, NSW last mystery case was before that.

There were the fives case in Wingecarribee on 6 & 7 November

 

[RooFlyer]

Why hindsight? There was a substantive period of time involved and cases outside of the one family was very small.

Even more time for a super contagious virus to have shown up in passengers on the plane. Nothing has been revealed to actually indicate that the virus strain was super contagious and Spurrier said she acted based on a visit to the store and not just possible fomite transmission on a hot pizza box. Spurrier also said yesterday that contact tracers also did not believe the person's story and so also knew that information was possibly not accurate.

Again speed to act was and is commendable. I am only questioning the degree of the measures jumped to based on what was known by the authorities when they made the decision (so hindsight is not a factor).

I'm talking about the hindsight exhibited here, rationalising everything we know now, Vs the actions of the SA government then based on what was known then.

There is never a sign elsewhere of a new strain until there is the first few cases of that new strain. It can mutate within any person who has the virus. And I again remind that the virulent Danish strain was on the news, so the SA authorities would have had 'new strains' in mind - maybe not the same new strain, but that it was a possibility (they would have know this already, of course).

An argument of 'where were the other cases ... virus doesn't behave in such-and-such a way' to me is disingenuous. A Public Health Official who doesn't act on the evidence before them at the time, and with precaution top-of-mind shouldn't be in the job. Look at the quotes I supplied above re the 'precautionary principle'.

Imagine if someone walked into a hospital with classic signs and symptoms of Ebola. Say it takes 12 hours to get an Ebola test done. I could never fault a public health official who ordered the entire state to be locked down on the suspicion of an Ebola infected person having been walking around for the past day or even few hours (lets assume Ebola is transmitted as an aerosol and/or direct contact, like covid19). On the other hand, they should be prosecuted for endangering public safety if they took the attitude of "Hey, that's unusual .. can't see how it could possibly be here when there have been no other reports out of Africa. Lets just keep the person and their family isolated until we get the test result back, tomorrow, but we won't alert or scare the public".

 

[jakeseven7]

Nope borders opened 4th Nov, NSW last mystery case was before that.

I said community transmission not mystery though it’s so easy to get confused because of the lack of a NATIONAL STANDARD 9 months on and still out verbally challenged state premiers and CHO’s cannot even agree to this.

There were the fives case in Wingecarribee on 6 & 7 November

What you said

 

[drron]

So now I am curious @drron. Yesterday you sent the link that you'd received stating that SA had a particularly nasty version of the virus and needed fast action as it was a super infectious one and we were in the fourth or fifth generation after just a few days. The liar incident seems to have precipitated that thought. I believe (could be wrong here) Prof Spurrier stated that genomic testing had confirmed similar. Now, yesterday, Prof Spurrier confirmed that we were still thankfully, just at the second generation. And contacts and second contacts all isolated. (As are we still in lockdown until midnight tonight) So, where exactly does this leave us here? Was that information correct or well

A briefing here at 10.30 SA time. I expect there will be more positives, possibly up to 17, in the known cluster group.

No I was told and said initially that this was a 5th generation of the virus-but now I have followed up and a 5th generation variant of the D614G mutation.Now it can be much more infective so this means it has the potential to be very infective.So when the genomics were identified and it was thought that there was a leakage to the Woodville pizza shop it meant that there could already be many more positive cases in the community.So the safest action was the severe lockdown.

As it turned out there wasn't a transmission in the pizza shop so now because there was no other case outside the initial cluster and the next day no new cases that the worst case scenario was no longer very likely hence the backdown.

Now just because this form of the virus is more infective it doesn't mean it will always lead to massive numbers of infections immediately.There have always been super spreaders and many who don't seem to transmit the virus.

So the SA contact tracing system was not overwhelmed.Because of the potential of massive numbers they called in the interstate back up.Now just imagine if the pizza fellow hadn't been lying and had picked up the infection at the pizza shop and the SA authorities continued as they had the previous couple of days what might have happened could be hundreds of new cases and the system truly overwhelmed.So they made the right call.Better to be safe than sorry.

I first was told of this ~ noon of the day the lockdown occurred.It was from a medico in the Tasmanian Covid set up so the Tasmanians had definitely been told so the other States and Commonwealth would also have known.
So it is not just my opinion but that of the Commonwealth CMO who would have had all the relevant information -

"Asked whether South Australia's lockdown was "too hard, too fast", acting chief medical officer Paul Kelly on Wednesday said the state was doing a "marvellous job".

"It is hard and fast, South Australia has made the decision on the basis of the information that they have at hand, they know their system, they know their people, that is the decision they have made and we back them in terms of that decision," he said."

Here's what South Australians can and can't do under the state's strict, six-day lockdown

From midnight on Wednesday, outdoor exercise will banned, non-essential businesses shut down and face masks will be mandatory in public for the next six days.

www.sbs.com.au

 

[Pushka]

I first was told of this ~ noon of the day the lockdown occurred.It was from a medico in the Tasmanian Covid set up so the Tasmanians had definitely been told so the other States and Commonwealth would also have known.
So it is not just my opinion but that of the Commonwealth CMO who would have had all the relevant information -

Oh yes, I knew it wasn't your opinion but gleaned from the information that had been distributed. It was a harsh lock down predicated on the statement that from minimal contact a guy had developed the virus from a pizza place purchase. That it was therefore a fourth or fifth generation but that was based solely on that statement. Yet they were suspicious so they sent in the police - not sure when that happened - and the lockdown occurred likely earlier. Spurrier found out in the early hours of Sunday morning. Less than a week ago. At the time we thought it was too harsh a lockdown based on what we were being told publically. Based on the info you provided it was a much more serious scenario. But it didn't come to pass.

So was there actual science that it was fourth or fifth generation of transmission or was it simply the pizza guys statement?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 0 in the past 7 days
- 0 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the period 15-28 days
- 33 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

As at Day 13 (NSW)/Day 16 (Sydney)

PS 6 days and 28 pages since last update.

Nsw mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 0 in the past 7 days
- 0 in the period 8-14 days
- 1 in the period 15-28 days
- 33 older than 28 days but since before Crossroads emerged.

Interstingly NSW health have seemingly reclassified 38 cases (From linked to mystery) yesterday. I thought it was a typo but the same data appeared today.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm talking about the hindsight exhibited here, rationalising everything we know now, Vs the actions of the SA government then based on what was known then.

I was talking about what was known at the time that the decision was made, including that Pizza guy had caught the virus in their 10 minute visit to the in a pizza shop (which is what Spurrier said, and which Spurrier also said that they did not really believe to be truthful).

Plus when they announced it I said:

I would guess that this would seem to be to get a true handle on exactly how many infections that there may already be or not be and where they may be (which given that the existing cases have been out and about is potentially widespread), and for mixing in the interim to not result in even more from those already infected but who do not know that they are..

While they do seem to be on the overly harsh side, it is better to be that than way too easy.

The most important thing is to be swift. At the start of the Vic Second Wave the tendency tended to be be to wait for data before applying new measures and that tended to just have us chasing our tail.

And my comments then were based on the rapid transmission comments which Spurrier backpedalled on today. Surprisingly SA Health seemed to unaware just how quick the virus will affect people living in the one household.

So quick action good, comprehensive measures good......but nothing has yet been revealed to justify the jumping to such a comprehensive lockdown. Indeed the opposite has been the case where it was not just the pizza guy's interview that has been found to have not been the case.

And if you want to go with absolute worse case scenarios being prudent, why in that case were not SA Health not better prepared? Having resources to contact trace only 50 people a day is hardly being on the cautious side of things. This seems to be more the reason for jumping to overly harsh restrictions.

 

[Pushka]

Interestingly Grant Stevens (Police Commissioner) stated this in our local papers explanation as to the decision made to lock SA down

"But I am firmly of the view that our health professionals doing the contact tracing provided what they believed to be accurate information sourced through their processes."

 

[Lynda2475]

Interstingly NSW health have seemingly reclassified 38 cases (From linked to mystery) yesterday. I thought it was a typo but the same data appeared today.

Ive not read anything about new mystery cases.

Not sure where you grab the mystery case watch figures you post, but the wording "since before" is very poor and doesnt make sense.

Either the cases are older than 28 days but occurred since Crossroads Outbreak (which wasnt a mystery case, linked very early to a Vic traveller) but doenst add up as it would mean a mystery case every 3 days or so since July which hasnt been the case.

Or it means 38 cases which are 28 days or older and happened before Cross Roads (the first mystery case after CrossRoads was Thai Rock), which is possible, but then what hapened to the handful of other mystery cases since cross roads.

 

[Pushka]

I was talking about what was known at the time that the decision was made, including that Pizza guy had caught the virus in their 10 minute visit to the in a pizza shop (which is what Spurrier said, and which Spurrier also said that they did not really believe to be truthful).

Plus when they announced it I said:



And my comments then were based on the rapid transmission comments which Spurrier backpedalled on today. Surprisingly SA Health seemed to unaware just how quick the virus will affect people living in the one household.

So quick action good, comprehensive measures good......but nothing has yet been revealed to justify the jumping to such a comprehensive lockdown. Indeed the opposite has been the case where it was not just the pizza guy's interview that has been found to have not been the case.

And if you want to go with absolute worse case scenarios being prudent, why in that case were not SA Health not better prepared? Having resources to contact trace only 50 people a day is hardly being on the cautious side of things. This seems to be more the reason for jumping to overly harsh restrictions.

It was always stated that the lockdown was done as a pause to allow contact tracers to catch up. That surprised me given we at that stage only had 17 positives, 15 of which were in the same family. I thought we would have been better resourced.

 

[ethernet]

A 30 something Spanish Graduate on a temporary visa due to expire Mid December. I trust cwth visa conditions cover being untruthful, and if not ammended so all subsequent arrivals made to toe the line. May the Pizza shop owner also be audited left right and center. As another unrelated breakout was traced with credit card metadata (no warrant) it is impossible to lie without being caught out while numbers are this low.

 

[dajop]

So, I wonder if there is something in the contact tracing script that stresses the need that this is not about ATO, immigration etc, just the truth about contacts? This was a learning from Victoria, after the truck driver visited Shepparton and Benalla without telling contact tracers, Dan said "we don't care about ATO", etc.

 

[drron]

Oh yes, I knew it wasn't your opinion but gleaned from the information that had been distributed. It was a harsh lock down predicated on the statement that from minimal contact a guy had developed the virus from a pizza place purchase. That it was therefore a fourth or fifth generation but that was based solely on that statement. Yet they were suspicious so they sent in the police - not sure when that happened - and the lockdown occurred likely earlier. Spurrier found out in the early hours of Sunday morning. Less than a week ago. At the time we thought it was too harsh a lockdown based on what we were being told publically. Based on the info you provided it was a much more serious scenario. But it didn't come to pass.

So was there actual science that it was fourth or fifth generation of transmission or was it simply the pizza guys statement?

No it was never the fourth or 5th generation of transmission of the Parafield cluster.It was the virus description detected by genomic studies.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As I said above, do you really want them to answer those sorts of questions before they act on the possibility of a very virulent strain? See post & bolded text above.

Based on the evidence to date of what they knew when the lockdown was declared, then no I don't want SA and the rest of Australia shut down with such extreme measures on such little evidence of a such a remote possibility (ie looking at the history of the virus throughout the pandemic) when the other evidence they had to then was of a quite manageable outbreak.