Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

I disagree that NSW a lot of luck, we had better contact tracing and much clearer messaging much earier than Vic did.

From the start the messaging was much more transparent than Vic. The majority of the team I managed was Vic based and in the first 5 months or so they received much less info on where cases had been. All the focus was on work places, people couldnt easily check risk of having been at supermarket at the same time etc.

Some luck sure, but not a lot. What we had was better containment earlier, prcoesses that meant it didnt get to unmanageable levels, whilst keeping most business open.

Had NSW not had comunity transmisison reseeded from Vic, then there would have been no Crossroads, Batemans Bay, Thai Rock or Funeral Cluster, only a handful of cases which should have allowed everything to be open months and months ago. NSW was at 28 days of no local transmission prior to Crossroads.

Whilst some things have been relaxing over the past few weeks, in my experience mask usage varies by area, where I live there is still very high mask usage in supermarkets and on busses. The reluctance to wear masks seems to be more in south west and west where the main community outbreaks have been, and people catching trains from there un masked.

The corporate here have been excellent wrt plans (especially those operating internationally and nationally). Strict limits on lift numbers, need to wear mask in lifts, reduced occupancy, need to register for a desk, hygenine stations (wipes, gel) on every usable desk, meetings rooms only allowed to be used by one group per day, increased cleaning.

Majority of retail businesses and cafes/resturants have been using QR codes since May, thats months before Service NSW launched their own codes and before they became mandatory on 23rd November. I was at hairdressers yesterday, even though they could have more customers with the new 2sqm rule, they were still only using every 2nd chair, wearing masks; as was the nail salon.

Our pubs still require you to be seated to drink. Live Theatre has resumed but need to wear a mask for whole show, unlike the crazy football where people can scream maskless into other peoples faces.

 

[justinbrett]

NSW seems to have had a lot of unexplainable luck. Like an infectious taxi driver driving around for days that didnt infect anyone. VIC got the swiss cheese of superspreaders, family gatherings and vulnerable workplaces.

He was wearing a mask and the passengers were in the back.

NSW has been constantly tested since March, with just a couple of periods (now and prior to the Melbourne outbreak) of no new cases. It's consistently dealt with a steady spread of 5-20 cases a day. Sure, we could have locked down and nipped it in the bud, but we've had relative freedom within our state since June, saved a lot of jobs and more importantly the mental health of our citizens.

The justification that VIC had higher case numbers - all cases start from a single case, the fact Melbourne let it get to those numbers in the first place is most of the problem. Their contact tracing was dismal and if I recall tests were taking up to a week to return results (Results delayed by blitz backlog drive fears of virus gains going west). People were going to work sick and even after getting a positive result.

 

[dajop]

Bad contact tracing, no doubt. Brett Sutton also mentioned the failure to distinguish the start of the second wave from the tail of the first wave. But also there is an element of luck - with the same processes the Stamford escape petered out, with testing finding IIRC only in the order of magnitude of 100 or so cases linked to that outbreak, whilst thousands were linked to the Rydges outbreak.

 

[drron]

Having been based in MEL during the lockdown but fortunate enough to have exemptions to continue to move around Australia for work, honestly no where else in Australia apart from VIC has really gotten what Covidsafe actually means in practice. Maybe some parts of Sydney at a push.

I’ve spent a lot of time especially in QLD, halfway stuck between horrified and amazed at the populations and businesses behaviour regarding social distancing, hygiene and checking in. I often think if there was even a small quarantine breach it would be everywhere before you knew it.

I think the states that have released their restrictions so much without embedding covidsafe rules well enough are ticking time bombs.

I suspect that is one of the genuine reasons states like WA and QLD have been so slow to open because their public health teams know this. They’ve failed to train their populations sufficiently and their state governments have pushed hard to release their restrictions for popularity reasons.

You can add Burnie in Tasmania and to a slightly lesser extent the rest of the North west to the list.If you enter a business without using the hand sanitiser you are likely to be told to go back and use it.mask wearing is hardly noticed but with no active community cases for many months that is not surprising.

 

[Pushka]

Bad contact tracing, no doubt. Brett Sutton also mentioned the failure to distinguish the start of the second wave from the tail of the first wave. But also there is an element of luck - with the same processes the Stamford escape petered out, with testing finding IIRC only in the order of magnitude of 100 or so cases linked to that outbreak, whilst thousands were linked to the Rydges outbreak.

The more I practise the luckier I get?

However one thing that seems clear from the Victorian and current SA issue is large family size. Certainly a sudden explosion from 1 case to 17 in a day was a trigger to shut down SA, however all those cases were in just one family group. Does NSW not have the same family structures or again, is it just "luck" the virus never visited them. Communications at the most senior level in SA has been an issue of late.

 

[jakeseven7]

 

[jase05]

Dan urging a testing blitz as a “strong positive” reading from wastewater in the Colac region
McGowan would have his finger on the border closure button as we speak

 

[Lynda2475]

Does NSW not have the same family structures or again, is it just "luck" the virus never visited them.

Actually the majority of infections in NSW have been spread within households. If you look at the Crossroads and Thai Rock, less than 10% of the linked cases visited the actual venues on the seeding event day, most of the spread was within households (and a few secondary venues such as otehr reutaurant and gyms) afterwards.

It is frequently reported when a multiple schools close that children at those schools were related. The entire Moss Vale cases were one household, the medical centre and funeral clusters also involved many members of the same family, and in case of the medical centre a particular community.

I think what is different is the comunication, that once told to isolate NSW families cooperated, did not continue to go to work or visis extended families - this stopped cases growing further.

 

[RooFlyer]

You can add Burnie in Tasmania and to a slightly lesser extent the rest of the North west to the list.If you enter a business without using the hand sanitiser you are likely to be told to go back and use it

Another north-South Tas divide? . Definitely not the case in Hobart. Social distancing on queues OK, but not in general in shops. Sanitiser provided just about everywhere, but use very uneven and never enforced.

medical places always take temp, and have sanitiser there but only a couple enforce or monitor sanitiser use. My physio is the best on compliance.

To remind others, Hobart never had much of an outbreak, the NW coast of Tas did.

 

[jakeseven7]

Dan urging a testing blitz as a “strong positive” reading from wastewater in the Colac region
McGowan would have his finger on the border closure button as we speak

He should then close to Townsville as well, there were mystery readings up there too.

There were a bunch of cases in Colac. Lets hope its just persistent shedding. Same that keeps popping up in Sydney SW.

 

[justinbrett]

The more I practise the luckier I get?

However one thing that seems clear from the Victorian and current SA issue is large family size. Certainly a sudden explosion from 1 case to 17 in a day was a trigger to shut down SA, however all those cases were in just one family group. Does NSW not have the same family structures or again, is it just "luck" the virus never visited them. Communications at the most senior level in SA has been an issue of late.

That's really unfair to NSW. The Thai Rock cluster was responsible for 103 cases. Crossroads 53. NSW has worked its butt off to manage these outbreaks and stop a Melbourne style situation. It has not been luck. Many other states would have failed in the same situation.

 

[Pushka]

That's really unfair to NSW. The Thai Rock cluster was responsible for 103 cases. Crossroads 53. NSW has worked its butt off to manage these outbreaks and stop a Melbourne style situation. It has not been luck. Many other states would have failed in the same situation.

Ah yeah that was my point That's what that expression means (as in, the harder I work, the luckier I get)

Anyway, zero new cases in SA today and just 10 active cases now. Over 6,700 tests. Zero for 4 days in a row now. The activities of the now, non villain must be nearing the end of the risk period as I'm at Day 11 now (and fine.)

 

[blackcat20]

That's really unfair to NSW. The Thai Rock cluster was responsible for 103 cases. Crossroads 53. NSW has worked its butt off to manage these outbreaks and stop a Melbourne style situation. It has not been luck. Many other states would have failed in the same situation.

VIC also clamped down on the later clusters that popped up, they got no where near 100 cases.

They said with the VIC outbreaks that the average family sizes were much larger than the Aussie average, which is why we also got more cases. Its pretty inevitable that it spreads in a household.

 

[pauly7]

So what would be your thoughts about NSW in comparison with Victoria? It seems like they genuinely know how to deal with outbreaks - well from a distance it appears that way. So we have the shut down in Victoria but NSW never did that. Never mandated masks. What is NSW doing differently that "seems" to be working?

Both Victoria and NSW are equally well equipped to deal with outbreaks that will occur sooner or later.

The other states I am less convinced, especially with what has happened/ing in SA. Which is interesting because Mr Finkel passed SA on his stress test but clearly a simulation v real life is slightly different

From a population adherence point of view Victoria is far ahead of NSW, though it differs a lot depending where you are in Sydney from my own personal experience literally I have been in inner city Sydney suburbs that feel like they have Melbourne levels of adherence to social distancing and hygiene but I’ve been in other Sydney suburbs that feel like Queensland (I.e nothing is being done). I think another poster mentioned that too. It seems more patchy.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Dan urging a testing blitz as a “strong positive” reading from wastewater in the Colac region
McGowan would have his finger on the border closure button as we speak

He should then close to Townsville as well, there were mystery readings up there too.

There were a bunch of cases in Colac. Lets hope its just persistent shedding. Same that keeps popping up in Sydney SW.

Ugh let's really hope it is just the shedding.

 

[jakeseven7]

Ugh let's really hope it is just the shedding.

Further analysis showed the sample had “very low levels” of viral fragments, DHHS said, which could point to someone in the area shedding the virus after recovering from it.

From the VIC DHHS morning brief.

Seems Dan / the media got a bit excited.... but good to drive testing numbers up just in case.

 

[Pushka]

Further analysis showed the sample had “very low levels” of viral fragments, DHHS said, which could point to someone in the area shedding the virus after recovering from it.

From the VIC DHHS morning brief.

Seems Dan / the media got a bit excited.... but good to drive testing numbers up just in case.

I wonder if exactly this will be the tactic moving forward to getting testing numbers up.

 

[jakeseven7]

I wonder if exactly this will be the tactic moving forward to getting testing numbers up.

Possibly, NSW have tried to use this alot to drive testing numbers up in Sydney, especially the problem outer suburbs but apparently it just gets the testing rates up in other suburbs that are more 'attuned' to the health advice.....

 

[Must...Fly!]

Further analysis showed the sample had “very low levels” of viral fragments, DHHS said, which could point to someone in the area shedding the virus after recovering from it.

From the VIC DHHS morning brief.

Seems Dan / the media got a bit excited.... but good to drive testing numbers up just in case.

Thank Christ.

Thank you for posting. If this is the strategy, I sincerely hope they take in to account the increased anxiety it will cause people.

 

[justinbrett]

VIC also clamped down on the later clusters that popped up, they got no where near 100 cases.

They said with the VIC outbreaks that the average family sizes were much larger than the Aussie average, which is why we also got more cases. Its pretty inevitable that it spreads in a household.

Kind of takes the shine off this claim when there was 3,672 unlinked cases. Cluster sizes mean nothing when you have this many unknowns.