Oh sorry, I misread your post. I guess where we disagree is I think SA would do the same again (I believe both the premier and CHO said exactly that) and from past performance I think VIC would do the same. Hopefully we don’t have to fiPNR out.
We will have to agree to disagree then on what Victoria would be likely to do with an outbreak the size of the current SA one.
IMO Vic became overwhelmed with the Second Wave (after having eliminated the strains that formed the First Wave) and so had to introduce more drastic means (and while a strict lockdown, it was not a total lockdown, nor the strictest in the world like some like to claim) to minimise people mixing as that is the most efficient way to prevent transmission i such circumstance where there is rampant unknown community spread.
While the restrictions were bring down community transmission, the other covid control systems were all being ramped up. And that meant that at the end of the second wave that they were largely used to stamp out the last cases. ie Larger test volumes within 24 hrs, expanded contact tracing in both staff and systems, adoption of two rings of containment around any new cases, expanding who had to isolate, better support for low paid workers who had no access to sickleave, statewide wastewater monitoring, surveillance monitoring of higher risk workplaces like abattoirs etc.
All of these measures lead me to the conclusion that if Victoria had a similar new outbreak as SA has just had that they would just deploy these tools now assembled, and principally the two rings of containment around any new case. ie Just what was done in Victoria with all the last clusters as they occurred. ie Kilmore, Shepparton, EPIC.
Nationally I would hope that this will be the approach when eventually the next outbreak happens somewhere in Australia.
