Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Must...Fly!]

There is little doubt the risk of serious illness due to covid is higher than season flu. The question which pretty much every country and certainly our state leaders have failed to answer is what is the risk and negative consequence of covid, against the negative consequences of placing heavy restrictions on the economy (borders, etc). Maybe NSW has thought about it.

 

[oz_mark]

There is little doubt the risk of serious illness due to covid is higher than season flu. The question which pretty much every country and certainly our state leaders have failed to answer is what is the risk and negative consequence of covid, against the negative consequences of placing heavy restrictions on the economy (borders, etc). Maybe NSW has thought about it.

I certainly think NSW has put more thought into the mental health issues, and balancing things

 

[N860CR]

My response was to the claim that there are effective treatments for covid, and if 'hospitals had been allowed to do their job', most of those deaths would have been prevented (97-98%).

That’s not at all what was said, but I guess it better suits your agenda

So would be interesting to see if the 97-98% survival rate is actually due to effective treatments, or if that is simply the natural recovery rate.

I don’t think you understand what a “treatment” is. Yes, there’s no magic “tablet” that people take and it just disappears, but there are numerous treatment options available and by your own admission they’re clearly working very well. Your aunt and uncle were clearly treated with bed rest and, as you said, it worked despite them being in a higher risk category.

 

[moa999]

Looking at stats in Australia is pointless.

We haven't suffered a full outbreak of Covid - yes we've had some of the consequences of avoiding Covid but it hasn't hit us hard (very thankfully) (Even in Melbourne)

Flu deaths from the vulnerable populations are way down. Even in Vic where the majority of deaths have occurred it's only about 2x the normal flu.

It's 10/20+ X in cities overseas in vulnerable groups. Plus some serious health impacts on younger groups.

 

[VPS]

Was there an alert happening at the time? This was in the midst of the Pizza guy issue. They wanted my licence to check where I Lived. Which as I mentioned before, wasnt! . So they wrote down my Henley Beach address as well. Who'd have thought I'd have to explain this situation so many times. Ive not been asked for my address from Govt authorities for years. Covid times? Lost count. My licence expires in May. Thank god we will be living there by then.

They also asked (Victoria Park) at the first drive in entry point whether I had received an Urgent alert from SA Health on my phone (eg as returned interstate traveller) because then I would have been directed to a different queue. Faster.

No this was back in April I think and I went to Victoria Park (in and out in under 10 minutes and results next day )

 

[hydrabyss]

Was mentioned by the NSW CHO that the strain was not one they are particularly concerned about.

The initial transmission from the Transport workers colleague to one BWS worker was from a short contact in the store. It's believed that worker subsequently spread it to a second BWS worker.
I don't believe any transmission to customers (yet) but there are obviously a lot of potential people... Thankfully most people are in a liquor store for a short period of time and don't have huge staff contact.


Don't believe supermarkets are required to use ServiceNSW app yet, just hospitality venues and hairdressers (and no compulsion to sign in at a supermarket - haven't noticed anyone doing it at mine).
Woolworths has reportedly released data to HealthNSW from their Rewards Card for those using BWS Berala.

I think the issues is with the amount of customers they have, one day was mentioned as 1000.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

There is little doubt the risk of serious illness due to covid is higher than season flu. The question which pretty much every country and certainly our state leaders have failed to answer is what is the risk and negative consequence of covid, against the negative consequences of placing heavy restrictions on the economy (borders, etc). Maybe NSW has thought about it.

I think the answer is here in the last two paragraphs of a post made by hb13 in the predictions of when international flights may resume thread (yesterday, post # 3956):

There is no evidence of this whatsoever, as Pfizer have said. They have explicitly said that there is no data showing any type of effectiveness after 21 days from first dose.

So how does delaying the second shot to 9 weeks after this make any sense?

My cousin is based in Paris and works in a hospital that looks at Covid-19 patients and tries to analyse trends and similarities in patients based on symptoms. He explained why things are such a disaster to me: 'all the decisions being made (in Europe/UK/US), from Day 1 have been political, not scientific'.

A very simple example is economics. Politicians don't seem to understand the key principle that the virus needs to be shut down for the economy to return to normal. If you keep making decisions where you're trying to think of the economy first, it doesn't make sense because the virus will continue its rampage and the economy will end up being screwed anyway - a perfect example is the UK.

 

[trevella]

I think the answer is

What you mean is "I agree with..."

Pretty much everyone I've heard characterize the economy versus public health trade-off in such binary terms is doing so out of ignorance as to the degree to which the economy is already screwed. Often because their own personal circumstances haven't changed too much.

I don't think the deterioration in economic inequality we've seen over the past ten months will be reversed within my lifetime. Let alone the further deterioration we'll see in coming months.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Government money being provided as stimulus or unemployment benefit was significantly boosted in many parts of the world including ours. For some it has improved their financial situation. But it is only temporary.

Here, I feel the real consequences of this economic shockwave will only be felt once the Fed government money taps have turned off (mainly jobkeeper). For state governments, I feel this will be somewhat of a reckoning with how they approach border closures and judge the risk profile of covid-19.

I will be writing to one of my state senators this week expressing my displeasure and dismay at the continued action of closing borders by state governments. I hope I am not the only one who will make their opinion known.

 

[N860CR]

I don't think the deterioration in economic inequality we've seen over the past ten months will be reversed within my lifetime. Let alone the further deterioration we'll see in coming months.

But, hey, we really showed that coronavirus!

 

[hb13]

What you mean is "I agree with..."

Pretty much everyone I've heard characterize the economy versus public health trade-off in such binary terms is doing so out of ignorance as to the degree to which the economy is already screwed. Often because their own personal circumstances haven't changed too much.

I don't think the deterioration in economic inequality we've seen over the past ten months will be reversed within my lifetime. Let alone the further deterioration we'll see in coming months.

I'm not sure what you mean or who you are referring to as being ignorant of how the economy is "already screwed". The statement that the economy is "already screwed" in itself doesn't make any sense. Are you referring to pre-covid or post covid (if this will ever occur)? How is the economy screwed? Because pre-Covid, the Australian economy at least was in comparatively good shape. And it is always important to look at a country's economy comparatively as opposed to in absolute terms - purely due to how inter-connected the world is.

I think what you're trying to say is that the performance of the economy is based on a multitude of factors, which is correct, however, in current times, the biggest factor on the economy is indeed Covid-19. If Covid is not eradicated or 'dealt with' - i.e. we learn to live with it via treatments etc, the economy will continue to suffer. Sure there are many other issues to deal with, but if Covid is not dealt with, we have no hope.

 

[Pushka]

. If Covid is not eradicated or 'dealt with' - i.e. we learn to live with it via treatments etc, the economy will continue to suffer. Sure there are many other issues to deal with, but if Covid is not dealt with, we have no hope.

While I understand states closing their borders, that isn't actually dealing with the virus at all. It is kicking the can down the road.

 

[Must...Fly!]

While I understand states closing their borders, that isn't actually dealing with the virus at all. It is kicking the can down the road.

Absolutely. And is only made possible, really, by the Federal assistance measures. Hopefully when they begin to expire, reality will start to set in...

 

[jakeseven7]

Lockdown warning for Sydney as Acting Premier warns of ‘big’ virus numbers


Health authorities are weighing up another local lockdown in Sydney's west as the acting premier warns there could be "big numbers" of people at risk of infection from a new bottle-o cluster.

Thousands are in isolation after two workers at a Berala BWS, in Sydney’s west, worked over a period stretching more than 10 days – with over 1000 customers passing through the store on Christmas Eve alone.

Acting premier John Barilaro said signalled there could be another local lockdown – like the one in the northern beaches – if the situation worsens.

“If you look from 22 to 26 December, they could be big numbers, and we will always consider what we can do in relation to a lockdown, further restrictions, especially where there is a hot spot,” he told Today.

“One of the things we said when we were lifting restrictions was that if we had to respond, it would be fast and it would be hard and local, just like we have done for the peninsular.

String of venues hit with virus alerts

Woolworths, Dominos and Pizza Hut are among a slew of new venues in Sydney's west that have been hit with a COVID-19 alert, with residents urged to get tested.

www.news.com.au

 

[nutwood]

Government money being provided as stimulus or unemployment benefit was significantly boosted in many parts of the world including ours. For some it has improved their financial situation. But it is only temporary.

Here, I feel the real consequences of this economic shockwave will only be felt once the Fed government money taps have turned off (mainly jobkeeper). For state governments, I feel this will be somewhat of a reckoning with how they approach border closures and judge the risk profile of covid-19.

I will be writing to one of my state senators this week expressing my displeasure and dismay at the continued action of closing borders by state governments. I hope I am not the only one who will make their opinion known.

Unless something changes and quickly, I suspect January is going to be a horror month. Whilst Jobkeeper is still going, it's being assessed against turn-over. The borders easing in the last quarter will have bumped up turn-over and pushed many businesses off. The other factor is what period is used for comparison. The end of 2019 had bush-fires.
I know we are looking at cancelling most of January's work. I doubt I'll leave Tasmania. Most of the work we had booked was in NSW, with companies based in Melbourne. Due to the Christmas break, no-one can make plans but it's not looking good. No doubt it will sort itself out but the short notice is April all over again.
As far as I can see, no State made contingency plans for this, even though it was an obvious risk. Sole plan seems to be to slam borders shut and stick head under doona.

 

[SydneySwan]

COVID-19: Victoria’s border outcasts waiting days for permission to cross the Murray and make it home​

Exiled Victorians wait days for permits to go home

While thousands of Victorians spent the final hours of 2020 in a frantic dash back over the New South Wales border, those who missed the deadline are now stranded and wondering what comes next.

thenewdaily.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Unless something changes and quickly, I suspect January is going to be a horror month. Whilst Jobkeeper is still going, it's being assessed against turn-over. The borders easing in the last quarter will have bumped up turn-over and pushed many businesses off. The other factor is what period is used for comparison. The end of 2019 had bush-fires.
I know we are looking at cancelling most of January's work. I doubt I'll leave Tasmania. Most of the work we had booked was in NSW, with companies based in Melbourne. Due to the Christmas break, no-one can make plans but it's not looking good. No doubt it will sort itself out but the short notice is April all over again.
As far as I can see, no State made contingency plans for this, even though it was an obvious risk. Sole plan seems to be to slam borders shut and stick head under doona.

We are full steam ahead (thankfully) just bypassing Sydney for the moment and focussing heavily on VIC and QLD and using creative ways to get our people into WA . We’ve also been taking up a lot of seats into Tassie as they were backlogged being cut off for so long.

We are however wary that the NSW government seems to be signalling about a lockdown in inner / west Sydney though.... (we have some facilities there).

Given how porous those suburbs are compared to NB I’m not sure it’s such a brilliant idea....

 

[jakeseven7]

Great news for VIC just 3 local cases and massive testing numbers from yesterday.

Hopefully like yesterday they are already linked.

 

[hb13]

While I understand states closing their borders, that isn't actually dealing with the virus at all. It is kicking the can down the road.

I agree completely. I think we need to look into mass scale testing on a frequent basis to help get out of this. Vaccines will hopefully get us there, but that will be another 12 - 24 months for the majority of the global population to get vaccinated and for us to get herd immunity as a globe.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I agree completely. I think we need to look into mass scale testing on a frequent basis to help get out of this. Vaccines will hopefully get us there, but that will be another 12 - 24 months for the majority of the global population to get vaccinated and for us to get herd immunity as a globe.

But what is the economic cost of mass testing, on a regular basis? It's already taking 2-5 hours to get tested as it is, with people coming from or having visited hotspots. Plus isolation following the test. That's a huge economic impact, and the test results may not be indicative anyway given the incubation period