Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So looks like Vic copied the NT list.

Still makes absolutely no sense why Canada Bay which has no cases, no exposure sites and high testing rates would be Red.

coughberland is obviously the highest risk given 9 out 12 mystery cases in NSW come form there (the other 3 being from NB).

Fairlfield i assume is only on the list due to low testing and low mask compliance.

View attachment 238336

Vic clearly arent using Mystery cases as criteria, as NB has had 3 mystery cases recently, although super impressive testing rates.

Is Canada Bay next to Strathfield, Burwood and Inner West? Are there any ‘natural’ barriers like which existed for Northern Beaches to exclude Canada Bay?

 

[Lynda2475]

Is Canada Bay next to Strathfield, Burwood and Inner West? Are there any ‘natural’ barriers like which existed for Northern Beaches to exclude Canada Bay?

Yes it is next to, but how is that any different than Sydney being next to Inner West or Campbletown being next to Liverpool? Or fact that NB has had a mystery case in the last fortnight?

As someone who has lived in both Canada Bay and Inner West - Ive never had reason to visit Strahfield or Burwood. You can commute from Canada Bay by bus or ferry without transiting Burwood or Strathfield. Burwood and Inner West have no mystery cases, low cases (in iso already) and high test numbers, they simply arent in the same risk profile as coughberland (or Northern Beaches).

The calls for more testing by NSW Health are being made to Western Sydney (specifically Berala, Auburn) and South West Sydney (Bankstown) - no calls for more testing in Inner West or Canada Bay or Burwood or Strathfield where test rates are much much higher per 1000 people.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes it is next to, but how is that any different than Sydney being next to Inner West or Campbletown being next to Liverpool? Or fact that NB has had a mystery case in the last fortnight?

You can commute from Canada Bay by bus or ferry without transiting Burwood or Strathfield. Burwood and Inner West have no mystery cases, low cases (in iso already) and high test numbers, they simply arent in the same risk profile as coughberland (or Northern Beaches).

And you expect someone from outside Sydney to know this?

My understanding was Croydon (Inner West?) was not in iso when the first case in that family group/cluster was detected. It’s only plus is that it was more than 2 weeks ago I think.

 

[Lynda2475]

And you expect someone from outside Sydney to know this?

Well if other states bothered to consult NSW before makign this ilinfromed decisions they could be educated.

My understanding was Croydon (Inner West?) was not in iso when the first case in that family group/cluster was detected. It’s only plus is that it was more than 2 weeks ago I think.

Yes as previously stated it is unfortnate the Croydon Cluster was named so, as there were no public exposure sites in Croydon at all, the first guy from that cluster diagnosed lived in Croydon, but he contracted the virus at a family gathering in Bankstown LGA. All the exposure sites for the family except 1 (Ashfield Bunnings) were outside of the Inenr West (mostly in Cantebury-Bankstown, CBD, Wollongong and Blue Mountains). The Croydon guy had the NB strain and one of his family members from Catenury-Bankstwon is belived to have caught the NB strain in the CBD where they worked.

And yes the Croydon guy (and his family members) all put into iso over 2 weeks now.

To my understanding the only community cases in the last 14 days have been 2 mystery ones on Northern Beaches (which Vic seems to think is fine) and those related to the Berala/BWS cluster (seeded from transport worker, different straint o NB). The 7 cases over the weekend in the Western Suburbs, have been genomically linked to Berala.

Post automatically merged: Jan 18, 2021

Gladys was doing the rounds of breakfast radio this morning, feel cheated there was no NSW presser today. A video tweet from Jeremy McNulty is never as insightful as hearing Dr Chant speak.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well if other states bothered to consult NSW before makign this ilinfromed decisions they could be educated.

The CHO's talk regularly to each other, and often daily. They have individually stated this many times.

They are also all on the AHPPC which formally meets online as a group I think each week.

While they may end up making different decisions, they share all the facts with each other.

 

[drron]

I am not sure that we really need to worry that case zero of the NB cluster hasn't been found.
First they wouldn't be infectious now along with most of their contacts.
Second it is an HQ breach and because of all the others HQ practices have been tightened anyway.

Besides they still haven't patient zero for the whole damn pandemic.

Also I don't think people are correct blaming a certain ethnic group for the most of the non mask wearing and poor testing numbers.The coughberland LGA has the highest proportion of muslim population in Sydney with 21.9% of the population.Yes they have had 24 cases in the last 4 weeks with 2 mystery cases but their testing rate is 119 per thousand - the 6th highest amongst Sydney LGAs only beaten by Northern beaches,Woollahra,Mosman,Lane Cove and Ku-ring-gai all definitely in the higher wealth bracket.

Canterbury-Bankstown has the next highest population at 20.8% with 17 cases and 1 mystery case but a testing rate of only 70 - still better than several better off LGAs.
COVID-19 in NSW - up to 8pm 17 January 2021 - COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

And having driven through some of the suburbs where more than 40% of the population is muslim you realise that many of that poulation already have adequate face coverage.

And Lynda2475 I completely agree with you about Canada Bay.No cases and a testing rate of 109.

 

[Lynda2475]

The CHO's talk regularly to each other, and often daily. They have individually stated this many times.

They talk but it also been well reported they dont ask opinion of the state they plan to lock out, and the decisons are largely political not health related.

Gladys was clear when Vic implemented the hard border she was told 5 mins before press release, there was no disucssion of whether some areas could safely remain open. NSW decisionto close border to ic was mutal and via consultation, Vics decision was one way.

Dr Chant and Feds have been clear there are no locations in NSW that meet the criteria to be considered a hotspot. Canada Bay having no cases and no expoure sites being red is non-sensical. If the list of 10 LGAs was purely on health advice then NB would be on it since they have had 2 mystery cases in last incubation period.

There is no way Dr Chant have health advice that Canada Bay was risky.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well if other states bothered to consult NSW before makign this ilinfromed decisions they could be educated.

They do.... NSW and VIC health teams are in particularly close contact, both Brett and Kerry have referenced this multiple times. QLD and VIC health teams are also very close. QLD and NSW seem to have more of a 'barrier' - probably exacerbated by the poor and adversarial political relationships between NSW and QLD....

It may be that there may be a significant number of of close contacts (first / second ring) isolating in the Canada Bay area? That sort of detail is also what they look at which isn't made available to us plebs...

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well if other states bothered to consult NSW before makign this ilinfromed decisions they could be educated.



Yes as previously stated it is unfortnate the Croydon Cluster was named so, as there were no public exposure sites in Croydon at all, the first guy from that cluster diagnosed lived in Croydon, but he contracted the virus at a family gathering in Bankstown LGA. All the exposure sites for the family except 1 (Ashfield Bunnings) were outside of the Inenr West (mostly in Cantebury-Bankstown, CBD, Wollongong and Blue Mountains). The Croydon guy had the NB strain and one of his family members from Catenury-Bankstwon is belived to have caught the NB strain in the CBD where they worked.

And yes the Croydon guy (and his family members) all put into iso over 2 weeks now.

To my understanding the only community cases in the last 14 days have been 3 mystery ones on Northern Beaches (which Vic seems to think is fine) and those related to the Berala/BWS cluster (seeded from transport worker, different straint o NB). The 7 cases over the weekend in the Western Suburbs, have been genomically linked to Berala.

Post automatically merged: Jan 18, 2021

Gladys was doing the rounds of breakfast radio this morning, feel cheated there was no NSW presser today. A video tweet from Jeremy McNulty is never as insightful as hearing Dr Chant speak.

The problem is if they consulted NSW, they might be met with everywhere shouldn’t be red, and that’s not going to be helpful either. I doubt Health authorities will go into the detail of the pro and con of each LGA.

Are there exposure sites in Canada Bay? If so, then it shows there is some risk even though there are no cases.

Perhaps they differentiate Northern Beaches because of high compliance and high mask wearing - Vic was lecturing about mask wearing before closing the borders in the first place.

As I inferred I don’t think Vic put too much work into the list and probably just copied and pasted from NT.

Anyway, I await your recycled complaints when Tas and Qld announce similar later on.

 

[drron]

Is Canada Bay next to Strathfield, Burwood and Inner West? Are there any ‘natural’ barriers like which existed for Northern Beaches to exclude Canada Bay?

Of those areas the maximum number of cases is Burwood with 4 that are linked to the NB cluster.No mystery cases in 4 weeks.

 

[Lynda2475]

Of those areas the maximum number of cases is Burwood with 4 that are linked to the NB cluster.No mystery cases in 4 weeks.

Whereas Woollahra has 6 active cases and 1 mystery but is considered to be fine. Inner west has 2 cases (no mysteries) and is red but Sydney also with 2 cases is Orange.

I think people would accept that states has some discretion if classifications/rules were applied consistantly, but to rate a place with no cases, no public expsoure sites Red whilst calling other LGAs with higher case numbers and mystery cases Orange is a joke.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The problem is if they consulted NSW, they might be met with everywhere shouldn’t be red, and that’s not going to be helpful either. I doubt Health authorities will go into the detail of the pro and con of each LGA.

Are there exposure sites in Canada Bay? If so, then it shows there is some risk even though there are no cases.

Perhaps they differentiate Northern Beaches because of high compliance and high mask wearing - Vic was lecturing about mask wearing before closing the borders in the first place.

As I inferred I don’t think Vic put too much work into the list and probably just copied and pasted from NT.

Anyway, I await your recycled complaints when Tas and Qld announce similar later on.

The local government areas (LGAs) of Blacktown, Canada Bay, Burwood, Canterbury-Bankstown, coughberland, Fairfield, Inner West, Liverpool, Paramatta and Strathfield will remain classed as red zones.

They would all seem to be abutting LGAs and close to Berala and many of the current exposure sites geographically. Northern Beaches is not. Woollahara is also not -are they Berala Cluster cases?

My guess is that they have sought a buffer around the exposure sites linked to the Berala Cluster as people mix, work and travel beyond the LGA that they live in.

 

[Lynda2475]

My guess is that they have sought a buffer around the exposure sites as people mix, work and travel beyond the LGA that they live in.

Unlikeley people from Canada Bay are hanging out in coughberland en masse, completely different demographic. People in Canada Bay more likely to work in CBD than Western Suburbs, again a local would know this.

The LGAs that border coughberland are Cantebury-Bankstown, Fairfield, Blacktown, Paramatta and Strathfield.

So Burwood, Canada Bay and Inner West do not need to be excluded on that basis.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just on the news: a grab from Sutton stating that the current Red Zone LGAs were based on concern on Berala Cluster Cases.

 

[OATEK]

The local government areas (LGAs) of Blacktown, Canada Bay, Burwood, Canterbury-Bankstown, coughberland, Fairfield, Inner West, Liverpool, Paramatta and Strathfield will remain classed as red zones.

They would all seem to be abutting LGAs and close to Berala and many of the current exposure sites geographically. Northern Beaches is not. Woollahara is also not -are they Berala Cluster cases?

My guess is that they have sought a buffer around the exposure sites linked to the Berala Cluster as people mix, work and travel beyond the LGA that they live in.

But perhaps we will never know, because there is no explanation for how the decision was arrived at.
Edit: And even the "based on Berala cluster" comment offers no real explanation - just a catch-all.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The local government areas (LGAs) of Blacktown, Canada Bay, Burwood, Canterbury-Bankstown, coughberland, Fairfield, Inner West, Liverpool, Paramatta and Strathfield will remain classed as red zones.

They would all seem to be abutting LGAs and close to Berala and many of the current exposure sites geographically. Northern Beaches is not. Woollahara is also not -are they Berala Cluster cases?

My guess is that they have sought a buffer around the exposure sites linked to the Berala Cluster as people mix, work and travel beyond the LGA that they live in.

Yes come to think of it, was Concord Hospital mentioned yesterday? Is that in Canada Bay?

Rhetorical since I know you are Vic, not NSW

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Unlikeley people from Canada Bay are hanging out in coughberland en masse, completely different demographic. People in Canada Bay more likely to work in CBD than Western Suburbs, again a local would know this.

The LGAs that border coughberland are Cantebury-Bankstown, Fairfield, Blacktown, Paramatta and Strathfield.

So Burwood, Canada Bay and Inner West do not need to be excluded on that basis.

People who "hang out" are not the sole people who get infected.


So if for example people who live near Berala and tend to say take lower paid employment, then none of them would work in lowly paid jobs in Canada Bay?. So do all the lowly paid jobs in Canada Bay such as cleaners, kitchen hands etc all only live in affluent suburbs?

In the Victorian Second Wave many of the hospital and aged care clusters were seeded from lowly paid workers living in other suburbs.

The Butcher Club Cluster came from a lowly paid worker who lived in Frankston.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But perhaps we will never know, because there is no explanation for how the decision was arrived at.
Edit: And even the "based on Berala cluster" comment offers no real explanation - just a catch-all.

I am sure there is a reason. But who know maybe Sutton and NT just pulled LGA's out of a hat? I doubt it.

We have seen throughout the pandemic that CHO's and epidiemiologists both here in Australia as well as overseas, can have the same facts, but form different opinions and recommend different actions. And morseo politicians.

 

[Lynda2475]

If you care to look at the published Latest COVID-19 case locations and alerts in NSW (COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - Latest COVID-19 case locations and alerts in NSW):

Warnings are for:

Close contacts are in: Arndell Park (Backtown LGA), Mays Hill (coughberland LGA), Wentworthville (Paramatta LGA), and the older Orange and Broken Hill which are regional.

Casual Contacts: Auburn (coughberland LGA) Avalaon (NB), Bankstown (Cantebury-Bankstwon), Campsie (Cantebury-Bankstwon), Casula (Liverpool), Hurlston Park (Cantebury-Bankstown), Nyngan, Pendle Hill (Paramatta), Warriewood (NB), Wentworthville (Paramatta LGA)

Monitor for Symptoms: Ashfield (Inner West), Broken Hill, Brookvale (NB), Hurlston Park (Cantebury-Bankstown), Lakemba (Cantebury-Bankstown), Nyngan, Pagewood (Bayside), Warriewood (NB), Wentworthville (Paramatta LGA)

Nothing in Canada Bay listed.

I think when classifying LGAs, the states should be required to specify why if they are anything except green, why that is. Criteria should be published and be transparent.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

If you care to look at the published Latest COVID-19 case locations and alerts in NSW (COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - Latest COVID-19 case locations and alerts in NSW):

Warnings are for:

Close contacts are in: Arndell Park (Backtown LGA), Mays Hill (coughberland LGA), Wentworthville (Paramatta LGA), and the older Orange and Broken Hill which are regional.

Casual Contacts: Auburn (coughberland LGA) Avalaon (NB), Bankstown (Cantebury-Bankstwon), Campsie (Cantebury-Bankstwon), Casula (Liverpool), Hurlston Park (Cantebury-Bankstown), Nyngan, Pendle Hill (Paramatta), Warriewood (NB), Wentworthville (Paramatta LGA)

Monitor for Symptoms: Ashfield (Inner West), Broken Hill, Brookvale (NB), Hurlston Park (Cantebury-Bankstown), Lakemba (Cantebury-Bankstown), Nyngan, Pagewood (Bayside), Warriewood (NB), Wentworthville (Paramatta LGA)

Nothing in Canada Bay listed.

I think when classifying LGAs, the states should be required to specify why if they are anythign except green, why that is.

Yes I know that. All I am saying that there would have been a basis for why the LGA's were selected and that the Victorian and NT Health officials will have consulted with their colleagues in NSW.