Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

The last person in hospital in W.A with Covid-19 has now left ICU and is no longer testing 'positive'. They are still in hospital but being treated for other, pre-existing maybe, problems. So currently no people hospitalised with the disease in W.A. There are now 7 'active' cases.

Elective surgery rates are to be increased from Monday - from a quarter of normal rates to a half.

I think SA is already at 100% having started last week for urgent surgeries.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

We have mandatory temperature screening of everyone entering my hospital, also screening questions for respiratory symptoms.
In addition we ask all of our staff at handover about their health.

My wife just visited her mother face to face in her nursing for the first time since March which is when her nursing home went into lockdown.
This week was the first time visits have been allowed. To enter she had to have a pre-booked appointment, have her temperature checked, had to complete a questionnaire, and was only allowed to meet her mother for maximum of 30 minutes.

The only other visits in the intervening period were her waving at her mum twice behind glass.

Post automatically merged: May 15, 2020

Total Cases per Million People

STATE	CASES	POP	per M
Tasmania	227	536K	424
New South Wales	3,071	8.1M	378
ACT	107	428K	250
South Australia	439	1.8M	250
Victoria	1,540	6.6M	232
Western Australia	552	2.6M	210
Queensland	1,054	5.1M	206
Northern Territory	29	246K	118
Australia	7,019	25.5M	276

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Chief Health Officer admits Cedar Meats cluster mishandled,
Victoria’s Chief Health Officer has said the Cedar Meats plant should have been shut down sooner when two linked cases of coronavirus were detected and admitted the “explosive outbreak” could have been handled better.

Brett Sutton on Thursday admitted “two linked cases is probably enough” to have shut down the abattoir, despite repeated government claims the “explosive outbreak” had been handled “perfectly”.

Sorry about bolding - pasted from the Vic news website and I can't change it here.

Yes as discussed the other day the problem was the several days lost after the second person was tested. And not from the first case where it was now indicated by Sutton that the person had not worked for 4 weeks, rather than the reported 2 weeks.

So in short the cluster would still have happened, would still have been large, but not quite as large if they had not wasted a couple of days.
Sorry I should have spoken like a journo, it would have been "less-explosive"



It is a little bit like the Ruby Princess where people claim all the deaths and cases would have not happened if the passengers has been put into quarantine on return rather than sent off to self-isolate around the country. No the main difference most likely would have been the extra cases that occurred from the community spread of the passengers after they disembarked. The Ruby Princess was a disaster waiting to happen the day it sailed.

 

[Pushka]

My wife just visited her mother face to face in her nursing for the first time since March which is when her nursing home went into lockdown.
This week was the first time visits have been allowed. To enter she had to have a pre-booked appointment, have her temperature checked, had to complete a questionnaire, and was only allowed to meet her mother for maximum of 30 minutes.

The only other visits in the intervening period were her waving at her mum twice behind glass.

Post automatically merged: May 15, 2020

Total Cases per Million People

STATE	CASES	POP	per M
Tasmania	227	536K	424
New South Wales	3,071	8.1M	378
ACT	107	428K	250
South Australia	439	1.8M	250
Victoria	1,540	6.6M	232
Western Australia	552	2.6M	210
Queensland	1,054	5.1M	206
Northern Territory	29	246K	118
Australia	7,019	25.5M	276

Probably one time when Tassie didn't want to be batting above their weight. However it seems like its under some kind of control now.

Post automatically merged: May 15, 2020

Yes as discussed the other day the problem was the several days lost after the second person was tested. And not from the first case where it was now indicated by Sutton that the person had not worked for 4 weeks, rather than the reported 2 weeks.

So in short the cluster would still have happened, would still have been large, but not quite as large if they had not wasted a couple of days.
Sorry I should have spoken like a journo, it would have been "less-explosive"



It is a little bit like the Ruby Princess where people claim all the deaths and cases would have not happened if the passengers has been put into quarantine on return rather than sent off to self-isolate around the country. No the main difference most likely would have been the extra cases that occurred from the community spread of the passengers after they disembarked. The Ruby Princess was a disaster waiting to happen the day it sailed.

Still find it hard to believe that any cruise line thought they had any sense of control of this thing after Princess Diamond but money does these things to people.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

On the topic of testing, I got tested due to persistent sore throat, occasional cough etc, just to be sure (test was negative). Test is supposed to free for all in Vic, but I got a bill from the pathology lab as I'm a non-medicare card holding non-resident, cost was $283. Anyway, good starting point if tests will be required to facilitate international travel, that's another $300 fee to be added to the inbound journey

(nb: VicHealth going to follow up, as not supposed to pay for test).

It is free in Victoria, as long as you did not do it at a General Practice Clinic.

Health.vic

At the Department of Health, we're focused on supporting Victorians to be as healthy as they can by delivering a world-class health system that focuses on improving patient outcomes and experiences.

www.dhhs.vic.gov.au

Do visitors from overseas, migrant workers and asylum seekers with symptoms have to pay for testing?
The coronavirus (COVID-19) test is free for everyone. This includes people without a Medicare card, such as visitors from overseas, migrant workers and asylum seekers.

If you have symptoms, you can receive a free test at any Victorian public respiratory clinic below. This does not include general practice (GP) clinics.

Please bring a form of identification and contact details with you to the testing clinic. If you don’t have a Medicare card, please bring one form of identification, for example, your driver’s licence, passport, transport concession card or student ID.

The testing clinic does not need to know your visa status.

For more information, read the factsheet on Testing for international visitors, migrants and asylum seekers (Word).

 

[moa999]

It is a little bit like the Ruby Princess where people claim all the deaths and cases would have not happened if the passengers has been put into quarantine on return rather than sent off to self-isolate around the country. No the main difference most likely would have been the extra cases that occurred from the community spread of the passengers after they disembarked.

Agreed. All the press and inquiry has been about the deboarding process and not putting people into self-quarantine for a few days.
At best this has seemingly caused 20-30 extra cases.

Whereas the 600+ Australian cases plus some unknown number amongst overseas travellers and crew, was caused by the decision some two weeks earlier to allow the cruise to go ahead, after the Japanese ship incident and a decent amount of respiratory illness on the prior cruise.

The other new cases that concern me are the two Victorian McDonalds cases. Particularly given your typical McDonalds has youthful staff and is fairly regimented in cleaning standards.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

With the case in the nursing home, of note is:

"It is very, very concerning," Queensland's chief health officer Jeanette Young told reporters on Friday.
The worker is suspected to have been contagious since May after possibly becoming infected during a trip to Brisbane.

Dr Young said it was "very unfortunate" the woman had been working while unwell.

"They are rapidly testing a large number of people to identify whether anyone else has been affected," he told reporters.
"The centre is currently locked down and any staff in contact are in quarantine and have been tested."
He said the last Rockhampton case of coronavirus was seven weeks ago, on March 30, and the last active case was considered to be resolved on May 1.
"This just serves to underline that even after cities have long periods of time without active cases, things can turn very, very quickly," Dr Miles said.

So perhaps another example of if you do not test, you do not find?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The other new cases that concern me are the two Victorian McDonalds cases. Particularly given your typical McDonalds has youthful staff and is fairly regimented in cleaning standards.

Reportedly the person last worked at the Craigieburn Rd West McDonalds on 12 May, and was a relative of an employee from the Fawkner McDonald’s.
So the two stores are most likely part of the one cluster and also means that McDonald's need to lift their game.

This is also of note as it was only on midnight on 11 May that households in Victoria could start visiting again. So if not from a relative from the same household, and that was who spread it, that it could mean that social distancing rules were not being followed.

 

[RooFlyer]

Probably one time when Tassie didn't want to be batting above their weight. However it seems like its under some kind of control now.

We hope good control No new cases for a week and prior to that, an inter-state arrival already in isolation ....

Edit: Groan ... one new case tonight ... Nth Tas, gent in his 70s ...

 

[jakeseven7]

Is this thread going to continue to count cases for a few years?

Sorry one G&T in and laughing at the numbers like they really mean much as COVID circulates under the testing radar.

 

[Pushka]

Is this thread going to continue to count cases for a few years?

Sorry one G&T in and laughing at the numbers like they really mean much as COVID circulates under the testing radar.

Yep. Coz that's the reality of what are Gummit is using to make their decisions.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Out of interest 20,018 tests ( a new high) were done in Victoria today. So they are certainly looking for more community spread cases.

That is 2% of all tests done in Australia since testing began in Jan ( I am not sure when that was exactly but the first positive test result was on 25th Jan).

So in the last 14 days that is about 193 cases , some of which where international returnees.

So about 160 cases from 200,000 odd tests. That is a new case rate of about 0.08 %

Without expanded testing less would have shown up. The Cedar Meats Cluster would have shown up under the old (and lower) testing regime) as the case that exposed it was a guy getting his finger sliced and then going to hospital.

So the extra testing has probably found about 60 odd cases that may not have turned up with the old testing rate. That was say about 3000 tests per day. Over 14 days say about 42,000 tests.

So the extra 160,000 tests that may not have been done without the expanded testing may have found an extra 60 odd cases. About 0.04 %.




So the states where testing is not now this high, are the cases really just not there, or is the testing just not great enough to find the Covid 19 needles in the haystack?

 

[Princess Fiona]

Obviously early days in the pandemic but I think this is pretty good for us overall. Ashamed to say that the country of my birth is somewhat of a basket case

 

[moa999]

Similar countries on tests per population.


Source - Total COVID-19 tests per 1,000 people
You can play with countries to include.

Aus and Nz still look good on this.
Interesting is the comparison of Taiwan and Singapore in both charts


Taiwan, India, Vietnam, Japan all have very low testing rates.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Is the quarantine period not long enough?

Is the quarantine period not long enough? This is a very interesting question and one that I have been wondering about and asking about for a long time, as well as reading up on it.

There is a lack of a definitive answer on this, or at least that I have been able to locate to date. So if someone has a good source please share it.

As a quick summary of some of what I have read it would seem:

• That people can test positive, but may not be infectious. Or restating this, just because a person tests positive it does not mean that they are infectious. There was the recent well publicised case in SA who tested positive, but this was a substantive period of time after he was infected and medical opinion was that in his travel to Australia and considerable period of time after arrival that he would not have been contagious despite being positive.
• The “infectious dose” and the “viral load” of CV 19 are not yet known. However most of the comments have the viral load peaking early and then declining over time. This tends to be less than the 14 day period normally used for quarantine. Patients are thought to transmit COVID-19 more effectively at the beginning of their illness, or even before they know they are sick.
• Covid 19 can be transmitted (infect people) before symptoms appear, and in some people who never display any symptoms.
• Having a number of Covid 19 patients located closely together is though to increase the localised viral load thus placing medical workers for example at greater risk.
• It has also been speculated that being exposed to very high viral loads may cause such a infectious dose to be transmitted that people who would otherwise not have a severe reaction to Covid 19 do including mortality.
• Quaratine periods are normally extended for those showing symptoms within the quarantine period.

Another case today of someone who has been in quarantine at Brisbane since returning from OS and then testing positive after returning to their home state. The person flew from BNE to SYD on QF537 Tuesday and all on the flight will be contacted.

This case seems to be unusual, but not unknown for developing symptoms possibly well after being infected. Unless he was somehow much less likely infected after release and before flying (or even on the flight).

The man tested positive for COVID-19 overnight in Sydney after returning from Brisbane where he had served the mandatory hotel isolation period.

“We do believe they may have been infectious on the flight,” NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said.

“NSW Health is alerting all passengers and crew on the flight to monitor for symptoms,” she said.

Authorities are in the process of tracing all close contacts - including those who were seated in rows 31 to 35.

Dr Chant also defended hotel quarantine saying it is “an effective measure” despite the new case.
(My bolding)

So is this really a case where the Health authorities believe the person was actually likely to be infectious, or at they just being cautious in case he was infectious? Dr Chant's comments suggest to me the latter.

If Dr Chant believed he was infectious, would they not be testing every close contact rather than just asking them to monitor for symptoms? Now that tests are plentiful the current practice when someone is tested positive and thought to be infectious is that they test all close contacts, rather than just telling them to self-isolate and watch for symptoms which used to be more the practice when tests were in short supply.

Is this an instance something to be really alarmed at, or is just the type of thing with will happen from time to time and is actually low risk. He may well not be infectious at all.

On the other hand there will be outliers from time to time. So he could be an infectious outlier with enough viral load post 14 days to deliver an infectious dose to another person.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Obviously early days in the pandemic but I think this is pretty good for us overall. Ashamed to say that the country of my birth is somewhat of a basket case View attachment 217965

And for those curious about the breakdown between Australian States and Territories.

POSITIVE TEST RATE
Total Confirmed Cases / Total Tests

STATE	CASES	TESTS	POS %
New South Wales	3,071	346K	0.89 %
Victoria	1,540	309K	0.50 %
Queensland	1,054	149K	0.71 %
Western Australia	552	63K	0.87 %
South Australia	439	76K	0.58 %
Tasmania	228	21K	1.08 %
ACT	107	13K	0.79 %
Northern Territory	29	6K	0.47 %
Australia	7,020	984K	0.71 %

 

[RooFlyer]

And for those curious about the breakdown between Australian States and Territories.

... this seems to be maintained daily pretty well:

12,080,338 Coronavirus cases in Australia - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Australia

covidlive.com.au

 

[drron]

Just as well Vic has increased their testing rate.They had been lagging behind SA and NSW until the last few days.
.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just as well Vic has increased their testing rate.They had been lagging behind SA and NSW until the last few days.
View attachment 217970.

As per your graph (though the vertical scale is not labelled) , and as per earlier in the thread they ramped up testing in Victoria about a fortnight ago rather than just a few days ago and this is a welcomed change.

As reported they have gone from below average in testing rate to the highest testing rate from a fortnight ago. It is better to test more earlier than later, but if you do not have the tests, you do not have the tests. So it is good now to see them really ramping up testing now that test supply has increased.

Despite the lower than average initial rate, Victoria cases per 100,000 population remain the fifth highest after in order Tas, NSW, SA/ACT. Then Vic, WA, Qld and NT lowest.

COVID-19 cases by state in Australia 2022 | Statista

The number of Covid cases was over 40 thousand people per 100,000 of the population in all states except Queensland as of November 25, 2022 in Australia.

www.statista.com

The more widespread testing in Victoria has been finding more cases, but now at a very low rate per tests done.

Victoria has had the second highest community transmission rate behind NSW and so more widespread testing make sense. Given the volume of testing now the number of new cases found is very small, but given this and the lower daily test rate now been done in most states one has to wonder what community cases may be floating about. Case free does not necessarily mean Covid 19 free.

Even NZ still has the odd case pop up.

New Zealand has one new case of Covid-19 today - a patient linked to the Marist College cluster and who had previously tested negative.

This means New Zealand's combined total of confirmed and probable cases is now 1498 - of which 1148 are confirmed.

Covid's 'long tail': New school cluster case, patient had tested negative

Today's new case had previously tested negative, it shows Covid's 'long tail': Bloomfield

www.nzherald.co.nz

 

[SydneySwan]

In the UK the nightmare continues. Apparently the government set a target to recruit 18k contract tracers by mid-May. To date they have reached 1500.

Fewer than a tenth of the 18,000-strong army of contact tracers have been recruited, minister admits

The admission suggests the Government is nowhere near rolling out the track and trace system it said would be ready by mid-May.

www.telegraph.co.uk