Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[andye]

Points for enjoying herself

Probably trying to source stock of "under wraps" fine wines for her cellar

 

[RooFlyer]

Ironically the track record (so far, fingers crossed) of the so-called more transmissible strains is not that good in the community; they have a better record transmitting inside quarantine/to quarantine workers.

Not picking on you, but re: these facetious comments about "so-called more transmissible strains' etc. Made, I think because those strains haven't 'taken off'.

But the several cases amongst HQ people seem to indicate aerosol transmission in hotel corridors, I think? Therefore isn't it yes, seems to be a more transmissible than the 'traditional' virus strain? Genuine question.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

People have to eat and put a roof over their heads. I'm guessing HQ is not a job people are queueing up to do. As long as someone the language skills to be trained I don't see a problem

I agree which is why I posted that the last worker reviewed was found to have done what they were meant to.

This is different that at the start of the second wave in Vic where not all hq staff were properly trained, monitored and supervised.

 

[nutwood]

I've made the comment before but it really is interesting how HQ is demonstrating control hierarchy. In diminishing order of effectiveness, the controls are Elimination, Substitution, Engineering, Administrative and PPE. We continue to rely on the two least effective methods and the leaks demonstrate this.
Apparently they are now looking at ventilation and door seals (Engineering). I wonder how long it until they realise that Substitution (dedicated sites with separated accommodation) might be an idea!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[jakeseven7]

Good testing numbers for VIC for a weekend. Hopefully the lastest local case in NSW helps lift their numbers too.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Apparently they are now looking at ventilation and door seals (Engineering). I wonder how long it until they realise that Substitution (dedicated sites with separated accommodation) might be an idea!

Agree and I favour that. Wagner's proposal is a good one. Separate cabins adjacent to an international capable airport is a good one. Avalon airport also is international capable and has vast tracts of empty land around it. Demountable building could be brought in swiftly and not too long for power, water and sewerage force catchments.. Both are not far from large work. Demountables as they are separate can have open windows and fresh air. Perhaps evena small courtyard or fence off exercise are each.

Further hopefully would that the cabins be self-catering to greatly minimise how much the quaratine have to interact with staff. Would just be arrival, departure, health checks, and the cleaners after departure. No corridors.

And on the door seals I agree, all those open windows on the Qld HQ would have been causing air to be blown or sucked into corridors (ie just like an airplane wing). Think of your own home where you can sit in one room and feel a draft created by another room. Open windows play havoc with HVAC. Hotels with open windows and balconies while good for fresh air are not good at all for quarantine purposes between rooms and corridors.

 

[OATEK]

I've made the comment before but it really is interesting how HQ is demonstrating control hierarchy. In diminishing order of effectiveness, the controls are Elimination, Substitution, Engineering, Administrative and PPE. We continue to rely on the two least effective methods and the leaks demonstrate this.
Apparently they are now looking at ventilation and door seals (Engineering). I wonder how long it until they realise that Substitution (dedicated sites with separated accommodation) might be an idea!

Quarantine Camps might enable a tighter ring to be put around returned travellers, but that would mean the local community would be heavily affected. If the latest NSW case came after 16days and was carried home to Aus by that traveller (not proven I know) then you can begin to see how the net could widen with longer periods of detention. And the more remote the location the more dependent on local community that takes all the risks, and effectively becomes locked down as so many being tested daily, and family transmission in a small community is easy to imagine. I have heard Dr Chant say that NSW Health does not support remote quarantine camps, and until I hear otherwise from her or her key staff, I am not on board.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

SUERSPREADERS AND THE NEW STRAINS

While much is made of the transmissibility of the new strains, the medical reports do vary on how much extra they are so.

However what may be more crucial, and which also may magnify the new strains in some cases is that no everyone is equally transmissible when they do get infected.

I have heard a number of the CHO's speak on this and as Bloomfield recently indicated that it was a a small proportion that created most of the cases. When infected, some people do not infect others, some mildly so, and then all the way up to super-spreaders who infect others easily and with say only brief exposures. ie The several customers at the Butcher Club who got infected from only a brief interaction.

Also HQ breaches are not new, they keep happening. In NZ there are been a steady stream of breaches both before and after the new strain. So while the new strain may make breaches easier to occur, they were occurring anyway and often no likely or clear cause was found.

The recent breaches in Australia have mainly been stopped quickly. In part as the HQ workers were detected quick quickly (ie less mixing happens). But what could be a occurring with these cases is that a returned travellers is a superspreader pumping out large viral loads, who aerosolising the virus more, creates more fomite paths and who this infects the HQ worker. But the infected person then just has a more normal response which is average to low ability to transmit the virus. So with that plus quick detection they are not infecting people.

Say contract that with the Avolon strain where say a superspreader got out, was never detected and was thus able to create the multiple transmission chains of the Avolon Outbreak. (My guess is that they were aircrew, which is why no genomic link was found other than knowing it was from the USA, broke quarantine as was quite common in NSW at that time, and as they were never tested it meant it could not be matched back. Though not all swabs can grow a live virus to enable the sequencing, and so it could have bee a passenger.)

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Quarantine Camps might enable a tighter ring to be put around returned travellers, but that would mean the local community would be heavily affected. If the latest NSW case came after 16days and was carried home to Aus by that traveller (not proven I know) then you can begin to see how the net could widen with longer periods of detention. And the more remote the location the more dependent on local community that takes all the risks, and effectively becomes locked down as so many being tested daily, and family transmission in a small community is easy to imagine. I have heard Dr Chant say that NSW Health does not support remote quarantine camps, and until I hear otherwise from her or her key staff, I am not on board.

They do not need to very remote though, such as a mining camp is. They just need to be built so each quarantine unit is not connected. ie Cabins for 1, 2 people and family units.

So you just need a greenfield site.

ie.

Owners of private Queensland airport offer to build quarantine facility west of Brisbane

The ABC can reveal detailed plans for a quarantine facility near Toowoomba, west of Brisbane. The family behind the Wellcamp Airport is behind the proposal and it says the facility could be built within weeks.

www.abc.net.au

 

[nutwood]

They do not need to very remote though, such as a mining camp is. They just need to be built so each quarantine unit is not connected. ie Cabins for 1, 2 people and family units.

So you just need a greenfield site.

ie.

Owners of private Queensland airport offer to build quarantine facility west of Brisbane

The ABC can reveal detailed plans for a quarantine facility near Toowoomba, west of Brisbane. The family behind the Wellcamp Airport is behind the proposal and it says the facility could be built within weeks.

www.abc.net.au

Queensland could do it very easily. They have a large number of dongas surplus to requirements, just sitting in paddocks. The gas fields employed a lot of people during construction. Not so many now they are in production.
Mind you, the buildings are transportable so could go anywhere. Empty paddock next to an international airport, or better still, two empty paddocks next to an international airport. Rotate usage.

 

[jakeseven7]

I have heard Dr Chant say that NSW Health does not support remote quarantine camps, and until I hear otherwise from her or her key staff, I am not on board.

Her comments have been in relation to NSW, which probably doesn't have anything suitable due to only one major airport and risky / long intra state travel would be required. So continuing with city HQ and managing outbreaks will be their model until the population is vaccinated I suspect.

However QLD is a possible candidate on a few fronts, including Wellcamp. Avalon is also a serious contender.

 

[RooFlyer]

They have a large number of dongas surplus to requirements, just sitting in paddocks. The gas fields employed a lot of people during construction. Not so many now they are in production.
Mind you, the buildings are transportable so could go anywhere. Empty paddock next to an international airport, or better still, two empty paddocks next to an international airport. Rotate usage.

I agree with the principle, but the mining camp dongas I've been in are usually very small - just a (single) bed, desk, cupboard and a small and very basic en-suite. Recreation is provided in other buildings and exercise available within the camp. The dongas aren't meant or anything except sleep between (usually) 10-12 hour shifts so probably not suitable for 14 days HQ, even if exercise allowed outside (and then think of timing, spacing etc). Certainly not suitable for Australian Open tennis players

A dedicated build would have to be much better quality and larger than what the resource industry are used to ordering - quite achievable, but probably much more expensive that what people here are imagining.

There used to be an army barracks out of Hobart (Brighton) that was converted into a camp for refugee arrivals - families. That would have been ideal, but I think it was sold off.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Not picking on you, but re: these facetious comments about "so-called more transmissible strains' etc. Made, I think because those strains haven't 'taken off'.

But the several cases amongst HQ people seem to indicate aerosol transmission in hotel corridors, I think? Therefore isn't it yes, seems to be a more transmissible than the 'traditional' virus strain? Genuine question.

My observation is that all variants have aerosol transmission - my recollection is that AHPPC did not fully support it as the Ro of around 3 does not support a conclusion of aerosol/airborne.

I recall/am aware of only 5 quarantine worker/quarantine acquired cases (excluding WA because the worker didn’t wear PPE).
2 x NSW workers neither have the UK/Sa strains
2x Vic workers, at least 1 had the UK/SA strain
1x Qld family in quarantine, had the UK/SA strain

So a 50% strike rate doesn’t suggest to me as more transmissible.

Don’t forget there is also the view/suggestion that the UK strain may become the dominant/majority strain soon.

I posed a question around the time WA got their worker case why it took so long for them to get their first case - what were they doing right? The only AFF response I got was essentially blind luck. Hopefully some smart brains in Public health Policy are working on what works well in quarantine and not just what went wrong in quarantine.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I've made the comment before but it really is interesting how HQ is demonstrating control hierarchy. In diminishing order of effectiveness, the controls are Elimination, Substitution, Engineering, Administrative and PPE. We continue to rely on the two least effective methods and the leaks demonstrate this.
Apparently they are now looking at ventilation and door seals (Engineering). I wonder how long it until they realise that Substitution (dedicated sites with separated accommodation) might be an idea!

They might also have to do high grade PPE as suggested by Lynda2475 and fully implement administrative daily off shift testing before seriously considering substitution lol.

 

[Lynda2475]

Unlike Howard Springs (NT), Geelong (Vic) and Wellcamp (Qld)there isn't an international (or other airport) capable of taking large jets with spare land around it in NSW to build dedicated quarantine centre.

In NSW I think Fed Govt needs to build a special high rise facility on SYD federal owned land (or somewhere really close by) for international flight crews with negative air pressure etc, since these rarely stay in country more than 48 hours.

For returning Aussies a purpose built facility with individual cabins (no shared ducted aircon), with out door space and easy to police entry. And better transport vehicles where driver is sealed off from passengers.

I still think they could reinstate Q station at North Head. There are a handful of historical buildings which need to stay but a good amount of land on which they could build suitable accommodations with balconies or private courtyards, only one road in and out, private beach even. Its close enough to medical to good hospital if needed.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I wonder how much the off shift testing will cost the government. An allowance to the staff for traveling on a day off, or will there be mobile testers going around to their homes at an agreed hour?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Quarantine Camps might enable a tighter ring to be put around returned travellers, but that would mean the local community would be heavily affected. If the latest NSW case came after 16days and was carried home to Aus by that traveller (not proven I know) then you can begin to see how the net could widen with longer periods of detention. And the more remote the location the more dependent on local community that takes all the risks, and effectively becomes locked down as so many being tested daily, and family transmission in a small community is easy to imagine. I have heard Dr Chant say that NSW Health does not support remote quarantine camps, and until I hear otherwise from her or her key staff, I am not on board.

This might be an opportunity for the armed services? They should be relatively self contained... medical, catering, etc. The only contact with the outside should be the delivery of supplies, which might be able to be done with limited or no contact.

 

[Pushka]

Post automatically merged: Feb 8, 2021

This might be an opportunity for the armed services? They should be relatively self contained... medical, catering, etc

Nephew is in the Air Force and lives in the general community. Only his work is on base.

 

[drron]

One of the major problems we have in Australia with building remote quarantine facilities is time.
As rooflyer suggested demountable ex mining camp dongas really aren't suitable for 14 day quarantine especially families.Now if this were China they could be built in a week.Here more like 6-12 months and by then hopefully not needed.

The boat sailed last August when an Inquiry into HQ recommended enlarging Howard Springs and possibly use Learmonth as well.If done then these facilities would be online now.At present really not economically feasible.

As to increased transmission rates with the new strains it has been shown in places with thousands of new cases per day.A handful of cases in Australia will give meaningless answers.

The more believable assessments I have seen suggest an increase in transmission of 40-60%.
Now with the original virus the Chinese did a lot of investigation.Now the figures might not be trustworthy but they found in Ningbo City close contacts of symptomatic patients had a 6.2% risk of infection.Of asymptomatic patients 4.1%.
Now 3 factors accounted for a third of all transmissions-living with the case,sharing of transportation and dining with the case.These factors aren't at play with our HQ cases therefore maximum risk would be 4.1% and 2.8% for asymptomatic cases.So even if you take an increase of 70% that makes the risk 6.9% of close contacts of symptomatic cases and 4.2% of asymptomatic cases.That makes it about the same rate of the original virus in the community.
Superspreader events are not common as well.So I don't think the Australian experience with the new mutations is unusual.