Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Princess Fiona]

I had read that link Princess Fiona but my impression was they have said the virus is more infective and more cases = more deaths not that the virus causes more severe disease.
The other problem with the link it is mathematical modelling.It was released on 7/2 and already the evidence suggests there modelling is wrong.
The Variant exploded between November and January to become the dominant strain in England.Yet the figures are not showing an increase in
cases or deaths in the UK.
View attachment 241240.

Cases appear to peak in early January.Deaths a couple of weeks later as you would expect.
View attachment 241241.

The problem is increasing the infectivity from ~ 11% to ~14.5% (a 30% increase in transmission rate) means a lot because the increase becomes exponential so with the third round at 11% you now have1331 infections,at 14.5% it is 3048.
But at the 6th round it is 1771561 at 11% but 9294114 at 14.5 %.

Hence why mathematicians and the general public panic.

United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

This is the other paper I was referring to. Sorry should have added it to the post.
Initial UK data does appear to show more severe disease and increased mortality from the new variant independent of the number of cases.
NERVTAG paper on COVID-19 variant of concern B.1.1.7

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

That would have to be the most ... what's the word? bizarre? unbelievable? contemptuous? thing to come out of the Victorian government to date in relation to the pandemic. Excerpts from ABC report:

Experts are "gobsmacked" to learn the hotel quarantine program was left out of Victoria's key taskforce on infection control for frontline health workers and the policies were not applied to the embattled system.
...
Last year, the Healthcare Worker Infection Prevention and Wellbeing taskforce was set up to tackle the issue of frontline workers catching COVID-19.

Up to 80 per cent of the thousands of healthcare workers who caught COVID-19 last year in Victoria were infected at work.
...

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton is on the taskforce, and it is chaired by Chief Medical Officer Andrew Wilson from Safer Care Victoria.

It also includes unions representing paramedics, allied health professionals, doctors and nurses.

Despite the taskforce's work to reduce infections on the frontline, and the constant review of practices, the information has not been shared or applied with COVID-19 Quarantine Victoria (CQV), taskforce members have told the ABC.


I wonder if any person will ever be found to have made the decision not to inform the CQV (if the ABC report is substantiated). I'd put a laughing emoji here, but its really a case of

Yep it’s definitely down to either Vic DH or CQV.

Of relevance, my understanding of the press release introducing the CQV establishment is that there would be embedded public health expertise.

So I think Vic DH is off the hook - usually the embedded expertise is meant to either know the answer themselves or seek information if the answer is not known to them. But most accounts the nebuliser issue was known to CQV, perhaps poorly put it into layman’s terms, so in my thinking it’s a failure to act/implement in sufficient detail.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think from the rules that you posted (post 16891), there are requirements that people working in HQ can't also live with people working in aged care.

I’ll concede your memory of some restriction was reasonably close. Other separate accommodation will be provided to VIc quarantine workers where they are unable to isolate from household members that work in aged care.

It might conceded that the wording is not an outright ban, just that further step would be taken if there was an inability to isolate from each other on a case by case assessment.

But it relates to a known high risk to vulnerable people (aged care residents, taking into account also time spent with each resident). To suggest further extending that principle/policy to occupations with a possible ‘high’ risk of number of ‘casual’ contacts (that are generally less susceptible of serious illness/substantially less time in contact) such as cafe workers at airports (or shopping centers) was probably a step into unreasonably seeking 20/20 hindsight perfection.

 

[moa999]

“I think one thing we can say is that Victoria probably wouldn’t be going into this kind of lockdown if there was dedicated national quarantine facilities,” he said.

Still yet to see facilities that can hold 10,000 people in suitable single family accommodation with facilities for health and security be actually listed.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Still yet to see facilities that can hold 10,000 people in suitable single family accommodation with facilities for health and security be actually listed.

That would be ideal but equally a number of differently located facilities totalling to that capacity would also suffice.

Detention centers?? Old quarantine facilities?? Army barracks??

 

[antycbr]

That would be ideal but equally a number of differently located facilities totalling to that capacity would also suffice.

Detention centers?? Old quarantine facilities?? Army barracks??

Love everyone always referencing army barracks. The army barracks are generally used by the army, and most ADF live in Defence Housing Authority properties.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Love everyone always referencing army barracks. The army barracks are generally used by the army, and most ADF live in Defence Housing Authority properties.

So is the correct term DHA properties??? I'm not into the nuances of Defence. I was trying for a general / colloquial meaning/term for defence forces accommodation (Army, Navy, Air Force, ADF, etc.) that could be vacated/already vacant and quickly made ready for quarantine and near an adequate hospital......

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Interesting interview with Emma Cassar who firstly apologised to the family abiut the manner in which the family had been described in the media, then went on to say that their audit showed there had been no disclosure of the nebuliser, then stressed the family had not done anything wrong. When asked if that meant the family had been lying, she said in a few words to the effect that they didn't know the pictures were of a nebuliser. She also stated that people are not asked directly if they used a nebuliser, but they ask about medical devices. When the media said that the family weren't upset with the media but rather with the Dept because they were stating they had not declared the nebuliser, she stated again the family had not done anything wrong.

The story with the family I think has yet to play out and the family, once the man has recovered, may decide to take things further, or not.

Finally had the time to read three media reports (ABC, news and The Age) of the CQV press conference.

So CQV had no evidence of being told about the nebuliser (potentially leaving wriggle room for whether they were told about any medical device, but given hotel quarantine screening questions ask about medical history and treatment/devices and its current media focus it would be poor form to go to this wriggle room now). Apparently CQV ask questions about medical conditions, medication/treatment/device - so one would guess there is a form filled out (by CQV) with the name of the person who used the nebuliser.

The person using the nebuliser has said they used it twice (only the Age reporting that one of the two occasions was in a higher tier quarantine hotel) and told someone (presumably, a CQV worker) beforehand. Presumably no record of those two conversations, so CQV will stand by its original claim of no evidence. They haven't indicated whether they were asked questions at the hotel quarantine screening stage and what was their recollection of what was asked/said. So its a possibility the partner was asked all the questions on behalf of the family.

If one of the two CQV workers is brave enough to come into the firing line and verify their conversation with the person who used the nebuliser, then that would settle the issue, but the CQV worker would have to explain why they did not make a record or raise it with a supervisor, risk the notoriety and risk losing their job.

So all the senior public officials stay in their same roles for another day. It seems doubtful we will see the bottom of this one.

 

[N860CR]

I guess that will come down to individual circumstances! Lots of people - perhaps the majority? - very happy with the benefits.

So because the general public has been told to be scared, that makes it right? Can’t see anything wrong with that

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So because the general public has been told to be scared, that makes it right? Can’t see anything wrong with that

I dunno if 'scared' is the right word. I think most people understand the potential implications and are willing to accept the measures put in place.

Once we have the vaccine, the willingness to accept these measures may change.

 

[N860CR]

I dunno if 'scared' is the right word. I think most people understand the potential implications and are willing to accept the measures put in place.

Once we have the vaccine, the willingness to accept these measures may change.

I’m unsure what the right word would be then. It’s not reasonable or sustainable to aim for zero cases of a coronavirus, so why have people become so obsessed?

We had better hope that “measures change” once the vaccine is in place, because I’m unsure what the next option is.

As I said, there was no appetite for change when we revealed the sad state of our nursing homes a year or so ago, so why do we suddenly care so much now?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I’m unsure what the right word would be then. It’s not reasonable or sustainable to aim for zero cases of a coronavirus, so why have people become so obsessed?

We had better hope that “measures change” once the vaccine is in place, because I’m unsure what the next option is.

As I said, there was no appetite for change when we revealed the sad state of our nursing homes a year or so ago, so why do we suddenly care so much now?

I think the answer is in the outcomes. Zero cases = life relatively free from restrictions.

I think a big part of it is that it is time limited. The vaccines are just around the corner. Fingers crossed we've only got another 3-4 months of this?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With the source of the current VIc outbreak, it just occurred to me that neither the media has followed up nor CQV has addressed the allegation of not testing earlier than scheduled after onset of covid-possible symptoms while in quarantine.

 

[jb747]

I think a big part of it is that it is time limited. The vaccines are just around the corner. Fingers crossed we've only got another 3-4 months of this?

What makes you think that the vaccine roll out will be anything other than a cluster?

I’ll bet they don’t even get started on the average middle age person until Q4.

 

[Pushka]

With the source of the current VIc outbreak, it just occurred to me that neither the media has followed up nor CQV has addressed the allegation of not testing earlier than scheduled after onset of covid-possible symptoms while in quarantine.

That was also denied yesterday. He said she said.

 

[jakeseven7]

Is 2 low enough to move out of lockdown? Or is it a elimination strategy again?

Huge testing numbers for a Saturday.

 

[Must...Fly!]

That was also denied yesterday. He said she said.

It was not denied at all.

She said, and I quote, "I would have to get back to you on that"

Later she was asked if someone who requested a test due to symptoms would receive one or be told to wait, she confirmed that she expected that anyone requesting a test due to being symptomatic would be tested.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

What makes you think that the vaccine roll out will be anything other than a cluster?

I’ll bet they don’t even get started on the average middle age person until Q4.

I think that's still ok? The key is protecting the vulnerable. That's supposed to be fairly 'quick' with the pfizer vaccine. After that it will depend on the public as to the level of risk they are willing to accept.

 

[Pushka]

It was not denied at all.

She said, and I quote, "I would have to get back to you on that"

Later she was asked if someone who requested a test due to symptoms would receive one or be told to wait, she confirmed that she expected that anyone requesting a test due to being symptomatic would be tested.

I heard her say that anyone with symptoms would be tested. Maybe she didn't mention any time line on that...

Post automatically merged: Feb 14, 2021

I think that's still ok? The key is protecting the vulnerable. That's supposed to be fairly 'quick' with the pfizer vaccine. After that it will depend on the public as to the level of risk they are willing to accept.

It is and has never been up to the public to accept the risk level. No choice. Protecting the vulnerable kind of disappeared months ago once the curve was smashed.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I heard her say that anyone with symptoms would be tested.

Ah OK my recollection might have been slightly wrong. She did definitely say "I would have to get back to you on that" in response to the direct question about the allegation of the man in ICU.

Speaking of that man in ICU, the Herald Sun website has a story with the folowing;

On Saturday he told the Sunday Herald Sun that despite this he received an email from the Department of Health shortly after 1pm on Saturday alerting him that he “had COVID-19”.

The email came nine days after he tested positive, and several days after he was admitted to ICU.

He said the email had spelt his name wrong, and when a contact tracer called him they didn’t understand he had already done contact tracing over a week ago.

“We got a call 9 days ago and went through every possibly contact. I said to the guy I am aware I have COVID I’m the guy who’s been in ICU,” he said.

Odd for the completely redesigned and relaunched "best" contact tracing system in the country.

Behind a paywall, but the rest of the (long) story is here for anyone else who can access

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