Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Must...Fly!]

I don’t think that it will happen and hope it’s all fine by then but obviously they are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
Ive just seen they have released a few more Tier 1 locations which includes a couple of tram routes in peak weekday times but hopefully nothing comes from it

The tram journey starts right by where I live. Thinking it is a nearby resident as that is the way to get to QVM via public transport

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

And maybe you could work on not sounding so hysterical?

And maybe your posts are certain to provide a laugh every time?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Ah. So, 6 weeks to do 80,000. At that rate, assuming we need to vaccinate about 18 million people, the entire job will be done in 25.96 years.

Scarily, that sort of efficiency wouldn't surprise me.

Perhaps the Government marketing information /press conference was incomplete.

I’m not sure they were saying upto 80,000 would be the first six weeks. Just that the first batch arriving by the end of next week (ie Friday??) would be about 80,000 (my guess impliedly after testing for quality, etc)

I think the original covid vaccination rollout plan had about 650,000-700,000 in phase 1A, so at least 8 times faster than your initial calculation.

80,000 would seemingly only cover the first dose for quarantine and border workers and taking two weeks to do that. Then ramping up to do say about 550,000 in the next four weeks being the remainder of Phase 1A.

Another factor is Phase 1A is through limited clinics, while Astra Zeneca is meant to be available more generally

At the end of the day I don’t think 26 years to essentially do everyone is a fair pessimistic reflection of the pace of the Phase 1A rollout.

Edit: it is unclear to me whether they are counting first dose or 2 dose coverage in their press conference

 

[nutwood]

Apparently Brunetti T4 Melbourne Airport

12 colleagues - all negative
19 customers, now interstate and being followed up by those States
15 customers in Victoria, 13 negative, 2 pending

Based on the risk, SA will not accept anyone who has passed through any terminal, even though T4 is physically separated from T,1, 2 & 3.
The supporting quote was:
"Fortunately we have national guidelines and mandatory requirements for masks in airports, but obviously if you are going to get a coffee, you are going to be drinking a coffee and you'll have your mask off. Previously when we've had lockdowns with Victoria, we have not allowed transit through the airport and that was particularly important."
I'm generally supportive of the SA approach but this makes no sense. I cannot see anyone in the main terminal (T1, T2 & T3), exiting the building, walking to T4, passing through security, just to purchase a coffee that they could have purchased in the main terminal?!
I'm also skeptical of the "particularly important" SA considered transit through MEL as visiting Victoria. Tasmania did not. Both States recorded zero transmission from MEL transit. How do you prove a negative?

 

[burmans]

There will be 2 million AZ doses by the end of March, and then a million a week.

The 2 million Pfizer doses come over the next 3 months.

In theory everyone could have a first dose by roughly June, I think. Depending what sort of regimen is approved by the TGA for Ox-AZ

Sorry but this is just fantasy, to vaccinate 26 million people in 18 weeks. Do the calculation, that’s 1.4 million a week when the governments has stated they are aiming for 80 k rising to 200k per week.

 

[Pushka]

Sorry but this is just fantasy, to vaccinate 26 million people in 18 weeks. Do the calculation, that’s 1.4 million a week when the governments has stated they are aiming for 80 k rising to 200k per week.

Isn't the end date October? In which case it is 9 months or 40 weeks.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Sorry but this is just fantasy, to vaccinate 26 million people in 18 weeks. Do the calculation, that’s 1.4 million a week when the governments has stated they are aiming for 80 k rising to 200k per week.

If you could point me to the official government statement you refer to, it would be appreciated.

There must be someone laughing to the bank at CSL (more so than usual I guess), given they will be pumping out 1 million doses per week from south of Melbourne as of April.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Based on the risk, SA will not accept anyone who has passed through any terminal, even though T4 is physically separated from T,1, 2 & 3.
The supporting quote was:
"Fortunately we have national guidelines and mandatory requirements for masks in airports, but obviously if you are going to get a coffee, you are going to be drinking a coffee and you'll have your mask off. Previously when we've had lockdowns with Victoria, we have not allowed transit through the airport and that was particularly important."
I'm generally supportive of the SA approach but this makes no sense. I cannot see anyone in the main terminal (T1, T2 & T3), exiting the building, walking to T4, passing through security, just to purchase a coffee that they could have purchased in the main terminal?!
I'm also skeptical of the "particularly important" SA considered transit through MEL as visiting Victoria. Tasmania did not. Both States recorded zero transmission from MEL transit. How do you prove a negative?

Yep its hard to prove a negative.

You might be surprised to know that NSW did put some restrictions on people who visited:
- any terminal over 2 days (7&8/2) - test and isolate until negative
- T4 at specified times on 9/2 - test and isolate for 14 days regardless.
ACT also has the ‘any terminal on 7&8/2’ restriction to test and isolate until negative

So I guess NSW/ACT might consider there is some risk but I can’t understand why.

In terms of this round of border restrictions, those that allow transit through Melbourne are
Qld and Tas

WA doesn’t allow transits. NT (which also previously allowed transits through airports of city hotspots) and SA will not allow transits through Melbourne Airport.

I think ACT also won’t allow transit (but I could be mistaken because it’s hard to see/find a clear answer).

Of course, NSW doesn’t have a border restriction, so don’t have a transit rule.

 

[Lynda2475]

Ive had a busy say so didnt watch Vic presser today, but on The Project they showed a clip where Dan Andrews was calling on ScoMO and the Feds to reduce international arrivals across the board in all states by 50% or more, and consider only accepting those on the most serious companssionate grounds because of the UK and South African strains.

Absolutely appalling to suggest this course of action, when he made speical conessions to accomodate 1200 AO partcipants and crew. Australia has an obligation to allow Aussie Citizens (not foreign sportsball people or foreign celebrities) to come home, and yes there is also an obligation to keep wider communty safe too, but so much more that can be done in terms of better PPE, air filters/better ventilation before reducing arrivals down to 50% or less of current levels.

This thinking proves that Vic still have no confidence in their systems or the ability to improve them further.

Seriously struggling to see how how Victorians could possibly continue support Andrews. These new virus mutations may be more virulent but we have mostly managed well and Victoria should have learnt from past failings, not look to shirk the ability to allow aussies to return home, freight to be delivered, exports to be sent overseas etc.

We need to live with manageable risk.

 

[Lynda2475]

Current NSW Public Health Orddrs are here: COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - Public Health Orders and restrictions



Details f NSW Hotspot definitions are here: Interstate hotspots

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

If you could point me to the official government statement you refer to, it would be appreciated.

There must be someone laughing to the bank at CSL (more so than usual I guess), given they will be pumping out 1 million doses per week from south of Melbourne as of April.

I think the point of contention was relating to your comment of in theory everyone could have first dose by June.

Others are potentially incorrectly remembering the PM’s comments. This is not an official statement, only reporting of the PM’s comments at a press conference presumably

200,000 per day = 1.4 m per week (@burmans saying 200,000 per week)

Australia must vaccinate 200,000 adults a day to meet October target: new modelling

It’s going to be a huge logistical challenge.

theconversation.com

There are 35 weeks between 28 February and end of October. Say about 20 million people aged 16 and over. So 40 million doses to get the recommended 2 doses. So we need to get well over 1 million jabs per week (average) to make end of October.

So if Australia was to achieve end of October, one would hope we are 18m-20m jabs by end of June (17.5 weeks after 28/2). The only other complication is when people get their 2nd jab and whether that starts happening in April/May.

In the end @Must...Fly! is close to the mark.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well to cap off a thrilling weekend because of the huge outbreak in NZ, Australia has just closed the border again to NZ bursting the travel bubble.

 

[Lynda2475]

SMH Covid Live blog reports:

Staff at Northern Hospital mental health service told colleague has tested positive​

​

Staff at the NorthWestern Mental Health service in Epping have been told a co-worker has now tested positive to coronavirus.

It is not yet known if the staff member’s positive result is a new virus case, or if the alert relates to an existing infection in Victoria.

In an email sent to staff, the affected areas where the person worked were identified as the BIPIU and mental health Wards 7 and 8, based at the Northern Hospital in Epping.

The email stated the infected staff member had now been “furloughed and cared for appropriately”, with team members who may need to isolate being identified.

“We have undertaken a number of precautionary steps to ensure the safety of our colleagues and consumers, these steps include identifying team members and consumers who may be impacted, testing impacted individuals and furloughing,” the mental health service said in an email.

“We will also be installing scrubbers in staff only areas to assist in reducing the likelihood of the virus still lingering in areas.”

When approached for comment on Sunday night the Royal Melbourne Hospital, which manages the Northern Hospital, referred The Age and Sydney Morning Herald to Victoria’s Department of Health.

The Department of Health declined to comment on the email or whether a new case had been discovered.

 

[Lynda2475]

Experts put poor virus controls in spotlight

An infectious diseases expert says the significant problem that led to the latest Victorian coronavirus outbreak was poor infection control, and not the more-contagious British variant blamed by the state government.

www.smh.com.au

An infectious diseases expert and member of the federal government’s powerful Infection Control Expert Group says the significant problem that led to the latest Victorian coronavirus outbreak was poor infection control, and not the more-contagious British variant blamed by the state government.

Professor Collignon pointed to security guards not wearing eye protection, poor governance and supervision, and a lack of awareness that positive pressure inside hotel rooms could push the virus into the corridor when the door was opened, along with a guest using a nebuliser in a room, as contributing factors to the spate of outbreaks.

Professor Maximilian de Courten, director of Victoria University’s Mitchell Institute, said that while the British variant, known as B.1.1.7, is more infectious than earlier variants, “equipment error and human error are a far more likely cause of the current escape of the virus” in Victoria.

 

[jakeseven7]

Australia suspends travel bubble with New Zealand after Auckland cases​

Australia has suspended its quarantine-free travel arrangement with New Zealand following the detection of COVID-19 in a couple and their daughter in Auckland at the weekend.

After initially saying there would be no change to the travel bubble, Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly convened an urgent meeting late on Sunday with the chief health officers from NSW, Queensland and Victoria.

“It was decided at this meeting today that all flights originating in New Zealand will be classified as Red Zone flights for an initial period of 72 hours from 12.01am on 15 February”, a statement from the Department of Health reads.

As it happened: Victoria records two new local cases linked to Holiday Inn cluster; Australia suspends NZ travel bubble

Victoria has recorded two new locally acquired cases of coronavirus and four new high-risk exposure sites have been identified in Melbourne. Auckland returns to lockdown after three new cases.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Lynda2475]

Perth’s COVID-19 case 903 still positive with UK strain as WA lifts internal borders, mask requirements

The security guard whose positive coronavirus test sent Western Australia into lockdown continues to test positive to the UK strain of the virus and will remain in hotel quarantine beyond 14 days.

www.smh.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

SMH Covid Live blog reports:

Staff at Northern Hospital mental health service told colleague has tested positive​

​

Staff at the NorthWestern Mental Health service in Epping have been told a co-worker has now tested positive to coronavirus.

It is not yet known if the staff member’s positive result is a new virus case, or if the alert relates to an existing infection in Victoria.

In an email sent to staff, the affected areas where the person worked were identified as the BIPIU and mental health Wards 7 and 8, based at the Northern Hospital in Epping.

The email stated the infected staff member had now been “furloughed and cared for appropriately”, with team members who may need to isolate being identified.

“We have undertaken a number of precautionary steps to ensure the safety of our colleagues and consumers, these steps include identifying team members and consumers who may be impacted, testing impacted individuals and furloughing,” the mental health service said in an email.

“We will also be installing scrubbers in staff only areas to assist in reducing the likelihood of the virus still lingering in areas.”

When approached for comment on Sunday night the Royal Melbourne Hospital, which manages the Northern Hospital, referred The Age and Sydney Morning Herald to Victoria’s Department of Health.

The Department of Health declined to comment on the email or whether a new case had been discovered.

Hmmm...doesn’t say whether the hospital worker was already isolating under Victoria’s 2-ring method (close contact of close contact plus casual contacts plus Tier 1 exposure venues).

Potentially ominous news tomorrow....will see who turns up for Victoria’s press conference

 

[Must...Fly!]

Experts put poor virus controls in spotlight

An infectious diseases expert says the significant problem that led to the latest Victorian coronavirus outbreak was poor infection control, and not the more-contagious British variant blamed by the state government.

www.smh.com.au

An infectious diseases expert and member of the federal government’s powerful Infection Control Expert Group says the significant problem that led to the latest Victorian coronavirus outbreak was poor infection control, and not the more-contagious British variant blamed by the state government.

Professor Collignon pointed to security guards not wearing eye protection, poor governance and supervision, and a lack of awareness that positive pressure inside hotel rooms could push the virus into the corridor when the door was opened, along with a guest using a nebuliser in a room, as contributing factors to the spate of outbreaks.

Professor Maximilian de Courten, director of Victoria University’s Mitchell Institute, said that while the British variant, known as B.1.1.7, is more infectious than earlier variants, “equipment error and human error are a far more likely cause of the current escape of the virus” in Victoria.

I wonder if the premier will show up for tomorrow's press conference.

This afternoon's was a total shocker. And the answer when the health minister was asked "where is the premier"?

"He is following the rules and working from home"

Was it 110 days straight during lockdown 2.0 that he managed to duck that apparently suddenly important requirement?

 

[kyle]

Seriously struggling to see how how Victorians could possibly continue support Andrews.

I've struggled since last year

 

[Must...Fly!]

I've struggled since last year

I am the first to admit they are in a tough spot

But the mistakes keep coming and billions of dollars and several inquires later, still no one can tell us who is responsible for bad decisions. "Root and branch reviews" of quarantine and contact tracing programs seem to still lag behind the top standard

Victoria has taken roughly 90,000 fewer return travellers through hotel quarantine compared to NSW. That's a big number that just keeps growing.